Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

We did see some positive signs of the people getting much more attention to AI application, especially the ChatGPT’s area. However, as I said, quantitatively, we haven’t have enough data to summing it up to see what is the contribution and what kind of percentage to TSMC’s business. But we remain confident that this trend is definitely positive for TSMC.Jeff Su And we don’t break down our HPC platform into those type of subsegments.Laura Chen Okay. Understood. And then my second question is also related to the high computing PC angle. Just wondering that your expansion and trend in advanced packaging, so we know that many of those like AI or server high-computing PC CPU, they require the advanced packaging like a CoWoS or a 2.5D, 3D packaging.

So I’m just wondering that any more capacity you require right now. And what’s the current capacity or revenue you can share with us and also the growth trend?Jeff Su Okay. So Laura’s second question is on the advanced packaging. She notes that applications like HPC, PC CPUs, et cetera, require CoWoS or 3D stacking, 3D IC advanced packaging technology. So her question is, what is the capacity expansion outlook or plan for our advanced packaging? And also what is the revenue growth outlook, I guess, over the next few years. Is that correct, Laura?Laura Chen Yes.Wendell Huang Okay. Laura, let me start. For the advanced packaging, the back-end services, we think that its growth in next about 5 years will be slightly higher than the corporate average.

However, for this year, is — the revenue will be lower than that of last year because of customer demand. Last year, the revenue accounted for about 7% of our total revenue. This year is somewhere between 6 to 7. So that should give you an idea of the overall packaging.Laura Chen Okay. So in terms of the capacity, is there any change in this year versus last year?Jeff Su So her question — also a part of the question is specific to the capacity for packaging. What is the year-on-year growth in the advanced packaging capacity?C. C. Wei Well, Laura — no, no, no. I mean, that’s — semi says that, actually, just recently in these 2 days, I received a customer’s phone call requesting a big increase on the back-end capacity, especially in the CoWoS.

We are still evaluating that.Jeff Su Okay. Thank you . Operator, please move on to the next participant, please.Operator Yes. Next one to ask questions, Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.Mehdi Hosseini Yes. Your guide for June and also 2023 revenue suggests revenues in the second half of the year would be up by 25% versus the first half. And what I want to better understand is how will new product ramps drive this growth. Is there anything quantitative or qualitative that you can offer us to understand the mechanics or the drivers behind this 25% growth in revenue from first half into the second half? And I have a follow-up.Jeff Su Okay. Thank you, Mehdi. So Mehdi’s first question is in looking at our guidance, his calculation implies around mid-20s half-on-half growth in the second half.

So he wants to know how much is new projects or new business driving that percentage of the growth.C. C. Wei Well, I can answer that question. To give you a hint, I mean, that we talk about customer’s new product launch and which use a 3-nanometer. So you can understand that we start to ramp up 3-nanometer quickly because it fully utilize and still not enough to meet customers’ demand. In addition to that, actually, all the platforms, their performance, their demand will increase in the second half.Mehdi Hosseini So as these new products drive wafer shipment increase, we should assume that utilization rates would bottom in June and improve into the second half, right?Jeff Su So Mehdi wants — so can — he wants to know, can you assume utilization bottoms in 2Q and improves in second half.Wendell Huang Yes, Mehdi, that’s a reasonable view.Jeff Su C.C. has already said second half will be stronger than first half.

Do you have a second question, Mehdi?Mehdi Hosseini Yes. I have one for Wendell. This question comes from every earnings conference call, capital intensity. Should we assume that as you tighten your CapEx project for this year? And especially in the context of declining revenues for the whole year, are we at the tail end of elevated capital intensity? Or should we assume that you — over the past couple of years, there has been significant investment and starting next year, you’re going to be able to scale your revenues? Is that the right way of thinking about all these investments that you have done?Jeff Su Okay. So Mehdi’s second question is on — around capital intensity. He wants to know, given the guidance we have provided for 2023, are we at the tail end of the higher capital intensity period or elevated capital intensity period?

And then will we start to, I guess, harvest or see that capital intensity come down next year or into the next few years?Wendell Huang Mehdi, I am not going to share with you the peak, where the peak is. But I can tell you from my current 5-year outlook, we are looking at about mid-30s percentage of capital intensity.Jeff Su Thank you, Mehdi. Operator, let’s move on to the next participant.Operator Yes. The next one to ask questions, Krish Sankar from TD Cowen.Krish Sankar My first one is on your comment that the N3 capacity will be fully utilized this year, is that capacity that will be online in the second half same or higher or lower than what you planned a year ago? And also at this point, do you see the N3 wafer demand profile to be similar or better than N5 at the same point in the cycle?