T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TROW) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Specifically, we expect G&A to be higher than typical run rate as we have higher professional fee spend in Q4 that spilled over from Q3. Stock-based compensation is typically higher in Q4 as our annual grant date falls in December. Advertising and promotion is also typically highest in Q4 to support seasonal campaigns. And finally, we will realize a full quarter of higher technology, occupancy and facilities costs related to our new London location. As we mentioned last quarter, we have been focused on managing our expense growth and driving efficiency to allow us to continue to invest in the strategic initiatives that we believe will result in future growth. As part of this effort and in light of our hybrid working environment, we have been reviewing our real estate usage with the dual goals of enhancing in-person collaboration and reducing real estate costs.

As a result of this review, we made the decision to consolidate associates at our Owings Mills, Maryland campus into four buildings down from six and to reduce the amount of space occupied in our Colorado Springs buildings by year-end. This is a change in office configuration, not a change in location or workforce strategy. We have also been focused on enhancing our business, data and technology architecture to ensure we have the foundational support to underpin our strategic initiatives and drive efficiency going forward. As we shared last quarter, our cost savings efforts over the last 12 months have removed or reallocated over $200 million in operating expenses versus the run rate for 2024. We continue to expect 2024 adjusted operating expenses, excluding carried interest compensation will grow in the low single digit range.

This growth rate will depend on final 2023 adjusted operating expense levels. And as always, this estimated growth rate is based on current market levels, and we may choose to adjust it if markets rise or fall significantly. Spending a moment on capital management. We repurchased over 977,000 shares in the third quarter at an average price of about $108 for a total of $106 million. Year-to-date, we have repurchased a little under 1.4 million shares for just over $150 million. As of September 30, we had 223.5 million shares outstanding. Our recurring dividend remains a top priority. Through buybacks and dividends year-to-date, we have returned about $992 million to stockholders while maintaining ample liquidity to support our seed capital program, opportunistic share buybacks and potential M&A.

As we complete the year and plan for 2024, we will continue to invest in our strategic priorities to pursue excellent investment performance and client service and to drive growth over time. We are also executing on our plans to reduce costs to fund these initiatives and maintain a low single digit expense growth into 2024. While flows will remain challenged through the fourth quarter, we are confident that we will start to see the benefits of these efforts in 2024. With that, I’ll ask the operator to open the line for questions.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Question comes from the line of Alexander Blostein with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Alexander Blostein: Hey, good morning. Thanks for the question. So maybe starting on the last point, Jen, just made and Rob, you alluded to that as well earlier around confidence and improvement flows into 2024. Can you spend a minute on maybe some of the key strategies and initiatives you expect to contribute to flows in 2024 that will start to move the needle? I’m not sure if it’s ETFs or the private credit strategy. So anything you can help us to better frame the opportunities that you see for next year? Thanks.

Robert Sharps: Yeah. Alex, good morning. And thank you for the question. Look, I did note in the prepared remarks that we expect November and December to have elevated outflows. And November, in particular, is impacted by a single large mandate. December should be consistent with what we’ve seen in December for the last couple of years. So I do think it’s logical to ask given that weakness, why are we confident that outflows should be lower next year. And the first thing I would say is that we’re already seeing some year-over-year improvement in flows in certain channels. In particular, channels that tend to respond a little more quickly to changes in performance. And that’s despite what I would characterize as a pretty challenging industry backdrop.

That is specific — that improvement — I’d say you can point to a number of areas. If you just look at trends in Q3, we had just under $3 billion of inflows in the retirement date funds and gross sales up 10% year-over-year. We have positive flows in fixed income, multi-asset broadly and alternatives. You mentioned ETFs. We had our best quarter for ETF sales. It’s still small in building. I think it can be a contributor in 2024, but I don’t think it will be the most meaningful driver of performance or improvement in flows. I think the most meaningful driver will be one, I think if some of the money on the sidelines from an industry perspective extends their time horizon or risk appetite, and you have more flows in equities broadly. Two, I think a broadening of performance in the US equity market would be helpful for active relative to passive.

Three, ultimately, the longer term performance numbers as they flow through will really begin to impact flows. And four, we’ve highlighted a number of different strategic initiatives that we’re working on. Alternatives being one of them. So we do think that OCredit will contribute next year. But in the overall scale of our organization, I wouldn’t necessarily say that I think either OCredit or ETF will be a predominant driver of improved flows. I think they’ll be additive. But we’re going to have to see improvement in the core asset classes and in the core channels to really have 2024 kind of be a better picture with regard to flows than 2023.

Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. Our next question comes from the line of Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Craig Siegenthaler: Good morning, Rob, Eric. Hope everyone is doing well. We have a question on another flow question, but focusing more on the redemption side of the equation. Most of your key equity flagship funds, and we’re looking at blue-chip gross stock and mid-cap growth, they generated very strong performance over the last 12 months. And you’re actually seeing this translate into month-over-month improvement in the flows from June to September. So my question is, how is this impacting client discussions, the better 12-month numbers? And if you strip out the large institutional sub-advisory redemptions that you’re expecting at year-end, why can’t this lead to continued monthly net flow improvement in 2024?

RobertSharps: Sure, Craig. Nice to hear your voice, and good morning. I would say a couple of things as it relates to these strategies. First of all, we’re definitely encouraged by the improved performance over the year-to-date period. And we’re encouraged because it’s come broadly and it’s come with the support of really strong performance from our underlying research platform. Our analyst managed portfolio had a really strong year and continues to support our overall performance, which is key to what we do. A client conversations vary — a lot depending upon the type of clients. As you know, we’re in basically every channel, every geography around the world with these strategies. What we’re seeing as it relates to flows, as you discussed, those channels that tend to respond more quickly to performance, we are starting to see some better numbers.

But we have to continue to deliver the performance that we delivered year-to-date, over continued time periods because we will see eventually the one, the three and the five get better as we do that and more and more channels are focused on those three and those five. So we’re encouraged in the short-term, but we are far from complacent about it and recognize that we still have many more quarters and years of strong performance to deliver to get those three and five-year numbers where we want them to be.

Operator: Thank you. One moment for your next question, please. Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Davitt with Autonomous. Your line is now open.

Patrick Davitt: Hey, good morning, everyone. You mentioned kind of a few chunky sub-advisory losses that have been announced over the last couple of months. So could you frame the AUM base specifically exposed to that particular issue and more broadly frame the risk that this is becoming a more regular trend?