T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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We can’t give you predictions over the long haul other than to say that in 2024, we see opportunities, and that’s why we’ve got a confident guide in 2% year-over-year gain in ARPA. And over the long haul, we’ll see what happens. But I will tell you that I’m pleased that customers are getting such incredible value from this category, and that certainly does open up opportunities for us to make sure for T-Mobile that if there are opportunities for us to monetize that in smart ways that it will be appreciated by customers, we’ll find ways to do that.

Timothy Horan: Thank you.

Jud Henry: All right. I think we’ve got time for one final question, operator?

Operator: And that question comes from Greg Williams with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Gregory Williams: Great. Thanks for squeezing me in. First question is just on the industry as a whole. It’s the third carrier to report this week and showing some strength here. In your postpaid add guidance, I’m just curious to what degree do you expect the industry to soften up in 2024? Is it sort of the same level of softening you saw in 2023? Second question is just on capital allocation. Just curious how sacrosanct is your buyback if I think about, say, fiber M&A materializing and your thinking rates could potentially come down over time, would you consider cutting the buyback for M&A? Or again, is it sacrosanct and you consider levering up and keeping the buyback? Just curious to hear your thoughts. Thank you.

Peter Osvaldik: All right. In the context of the guide for the industry as a whole, we do expect some moderation year-over-year, probably a little bit more moderation in our expectation than what you saw in ’22 to ’23. But look we look at it from a number of scenarios and kind of give a range. And our job is to within whatever happens in there, to continue to be the share-taking leader. And when we see accretive opportunities to go above and beyond, much like we did in Q4 and all of 2023, we’ll deliver on those. So that’s kind of what we look to and work within. In terms of capital, I mean, we talk about fiber and all of that. If you recall, what we said is we thought it was the right time and a prudent thing to do in the rate environment and what we saw to delever a little bit more rapidly to the 2.5 point by the end of 2024.

We’re there at the end of 2023, but there are some puts and takes in terms of timing of payments, for example, with respect to Columbia Capital, but it was the right thing to do there. But even within that, which allowed that envelope that we’ve announced of share buybacks and dividends, there was some room for investment. And so we’ll look within there. But, the capital allocation methodology that we look at is the same it’s always been and will continue to be. What are the highest value creating opportunities that we can see as a management team, investing in the network, investing in growth of the core business, the adjacent businesses. And then, of course, we’ll look at all other things beyond that, whether that’s in the fiber space, whether that’s the US cellular we’d look at that process and see are there value-creating opportunities.

That would be the right thing to do and invest in. But we have a little bit of wiggle room in there in terms of an envelope for investment even within the guide that we gave you.

Mike Sievert: And if it’s further comfort, I will tell you, obviously, we’re going to be guided by what creates value, and there are no absolutes there. So, but I will tell you, we’re not pursuing to the premise of the example in your question, we’re not pursuing a big like on-balance sheet transaction in this space. There’s no big deal on the horizon that we see that would knock us off our pace. And I think that’s important calculus. If something presented itself, it made a lot of sense for shareholders, our jobs to bring it to you. But right now, we don’t see it.

Gregory Williams: Got it. Thank you.

Mike Sievert: You bet.

Jud Henry: Thank you, Greg. It’s all the time we have today. Really appreciate everybody joining us and we look forward to speaking with you again soon. If you have any further questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to either the Investor Relations or Media Relations departments. And with that, thank you very much.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the T-Mobile Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect and have a pleasant day.

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