T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

But the general article today mentioned some of the wholesale providers and their exposures, which seemed pretty big, and I think some of them use your network. This is a high-margin revenue stream. So is there any way for us to understand if there is any time line around when we might see this. As you mentioned, it’s not material. So maybe it doesn’t matter in the full year scheme of things, but I don’t know if it changes the cadence of EBITDA in any way?

Mike Sievert: Okay. Great. We don’t know whether it will be material. But we do know that, and are reasonably confident that it’s fully embedded within all of the outcomes that we provided in our guidance range to you. But let’s start with Fixed Wireless and go to Mike. And then Mike, if you want to transition to what we’re seeing with ACP and Peter will probably pile on.

Michael Katz: Yes. I think on the Fixed Wireless side, like I mentioned earlier, we’ve seen steady demand for this product since it’s launched. And a lot of the things that you mentioned are absolutely true. Like our execution has gotten better. We have built more stores. So like we’ve got distribution closer to customers in areas like rural areas. There’s more awareness of the product, both generally and the overall market but also within our base. All of those things certainly have been factors. I think the other big thing that’s been a factor is churn. Because remember, the net additions are the difference between gross adds and the number of customers that churn. And we’ve seen a steady improvement with churn with HSI year-over-year, really across every single 10-year cohort.

We knew that churn would come down as our base aged and got into later cohorts, which we see the later cohorts of customers in this churn at a rate that’s pretty comparable with cable. We knew that churn would come down as our base age. But what’s really exciting is as the product has improved itself and as the experience has improved and frankly, as our execution has improved, even the early 10-year cohort churn has started to reduce, and we’ve seen that consistently throughout the year.

Peter Osvaldik: Yes. And I would just add on to that to your point, remember, we’re well on our way to our 7 million to 8 million target and hence, some of the moves we made to really optimize value creation. And so I’d probably expect on a quarterly basis, nets might be in the 400,000 range is really what you need to get to that ambition, while creating more value given some of the promotional pricing that we’ve now pared back. On ACP, I think the important element is we’ll see where it goes. But our anticipation with everything that Mike highlighted around the category itself is the outcomes inclusive of should ACP not continue on, is embedded in the core EBITDA guidance range that we provided as well as in our expectation that service revenue growth will be larger in full year ’24 than 2023. So that’s all embedded in the guidance that we provided.

Kannan Venkateshwar: Thank you.

Peter Osvaldik: All right.

Operator: The next question is from Ric Prentiss with Raymond James & Associates. Please go ahead.

Ric Prentiss: Thanks. Good afternoon. I want to follow along those same lines a little bit. Can you help us understand, obviously, track loads coming off maybe some DISH coming off on the wholesale side as well. How much magnitude should we be expecting wholesale might drop this year knowing that you have some ranges out there?

Peter Osvaldik: Yes. We haven’t specifically guided to that. And remember, we have a little bit of visibility given some of the MPGs, which do trail off with respect to DISH. But I’d expect a continued year-over-year sequential decline, but not a specific guide on wholesale.

Mike Sievert: And that’s obviously factored into the guidance that we’ve provided.

Peter Osvaldik: Absolutely.

Ric Prentiss: Right. And then any update on Mint? I think we’re going on, what, 10, 11 months. And what is their position on ACP?

Peter Osvaldik: Yes. So Mint, we anticipate Mint to close in Q1 and that is included in the guide itself. And of course, that will result once it does close and a little bit of service revenue and cost geography changes with minimal net impact to core EBITDA, as we talked about earlier. But all of that including ACP contemplation is considered in the guide that we gave. But it wouldn’t be appropriate for me to speak specifically about Mint as we haven’t closed yet.

Ric Prentiss: And last one for me is, you talked a lot about your net adds doing strong service revenue, adjusted EBITDA, particularly versus the peer group. Will we ever hear you guys talk about EPS because clearly the peer group talk to EPS as well. I know you say there are some things that make it tough. But will there be some day where you think about talking to us about an EPS guide?

Peter Osvaldik: Yes. I think that they will come. Obviously, we’re still in this period in 2023, we had significant merger-related costs. We’re going to have a little bit of merger-related costs in 2024, probably 150 in Q1 and 50 in Q2. But you are going to see us have more and more focus on EPS. And obviously, there was a couple, as I mentioned, a couple of catalysts, including the 48.8 million shares for Q4, but you’ll see us more and more focused on EPS. Look, the margin expansion is going to flow into the bottom line. And you’ll see us there. We’re not quite there yet. Little bit more work to do with the merger-related costs and other things, but it’s definitely something we keep an eye on, and it’s important.