Operator
Thank you. Our next question is coming from the line of Irene Haas with Wunderlich Securities. Please proceed with your question.
Irene Haas, Wunderlich Securities
Yes. Hey, I just want to be really clear. In mid-December, you talked about the second quarter. You produced about 8,800 to 9,400 barrels a day. What happen to that [inaudible] cut from then, obviously? Then are you still maintaining your fourth quarter exit rate of 13,000 barrels equivalent a day for fiscal 2015?
Ed Holloway, President, Co-CEO
Well, Irene, this is Ed. As Jon mentioned, it all depend on how the 29 plus 11, so that is 40 wells, how those are staggered in. Definitely, that was in the numbers going forward with us. I think our exit rate, if everything goes according to plan with all the wells being completed in this year, then our exit rate could be in that range.
Irene Haas, Wunderlich Securities
That is assuming that commodity prices stabilize somewhat. I mean if they continue to deteriorate, then that could trigger another probably more delay?
Ed Holloway, President, Co-CEO
Yes.
Irene Haas, Wunderlich Securities
Okay.
Ed Holloway, President, Co-CEO
At this point in time, you have to be so careful because you can flush a lot of capital down the toilet. We do not — you just have to really watch where you can position yourselves and get the right economic return for the cost that we are going to have on these wells. We have modeled out. I do not know how many scenarios. It is not 100 but it is pushing them 30 to 40 different scenarios where we need to be and what would press that trigger going forward for us.
Like I said, it is so critical in the first 12 months. We got to get have a comfort level that we can hedge ourselves into our comfort level or we are feeling that the trend is changing and going upward because of the time delay on drilling our pads and completing our pads. This is not an instantaneous event.
Irene Haas, Wunderlich Securities
I understood. One more question. At what point would you guys be comfortable giving us some sort of decline curve that can accurately describe your assets based in the DJ basin?
Jon Kruljac, VP Capital Markets, IR
Irene, we are working on that now. We feel PDC has done a pretty good job of differentiating in different areas. Our footprint is slightly different, but we are working with our reserve engineer here in house. We are probably looking at kind of three different areas. So far on our internal numbers, our wells are with the exception in Lefflerpad but all the other pads are tracking at or above our internal tight curves. We feel comfortable with kind of general numbers we have given you but we would hope here over the next couple of months sometime that will have tighter curve detailed analysis for you.
We finally just have enough time to sampling there that it starts to make some statistical integrity sense that we can come out with that. We really are pleased with our performance. Going back to the other question and Ed brought it up, remember what we said, we are going to be consistent about this. We want our money back. What we are looking at timing of completions we want to make sure, we are going to be getting our money back. We had always looked at whether we are drilling vertically three year payout or better. We are really averaging around 15 to 18 months on our verticals. We did not get to horizontals with that two-year pay out or better.
I think that if we can look forward in a low-price environment and be close to that three-year payback, we’ll start to click these –round of completion going in but stagger them and hope for just some. When you start getting your cost down, if you get just a slight bump in prices, it makes a meaningful impact in that payback period.
