SVB Financial Group (NASDAQ:SIVB) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Greg Becker: Yes. I’ll start and Dan or Mike may want to add. I tried to kind of give a little bit of color in my opening comments, but the way to think about it is that we still expect in the first half of ’23, that you’re going to see kind of a 10% to 20%, roughly decline in venture capital. And then, you’re going to kind of pick back up in the — from those low points in the first half. And pick up that not a lot. So you’re probably looking at, again, if you annualize the fourth quarter, you’re at about 144 billion, I think we’re in that, roughly 130 billion-ish for the year. Again, rough estimates, because you factor everything in, you got to think about burn rates and everything else. But the point is that the run rate for the fourth quarter, our forecast for ’23 is actually slightly lower than that, when you aggregate it, it’s just more front end loaded the negative. And we’ll see a little bit of a benefit in the second half.

Daniel Beck: Yes. Steve just add to what Greg is saying it doesn’t increase very much in the back half. So we’re in no way shape, or form being aggressive, thinking that the market is going to come back with significant amounts of deployment, the back half of the year. So you’re not talking about material shift in Q3 and Q4 in investment levels. But what we do see in Q3 and Q4, with the guidance that we’re going to see the slowdown in the decline in non-interest bearing deposits, plus the securities pay down each quarter that you kind of — you get to a normalization of net interest income and margin, right around the midpoint of the year, And then can start to see some growth into the fourth quarter, just with those factors alone. So small increase in venture deployment, a stabilization in the non-interest-bearing levels that happened towards the back of 2023 plus the securities pay down starts to build momentum for net interest income.

Steven Alexopoulos: Got it. Okay. Finally, just to clarify, you mentioned high 30%. As the bottom, you said this a couple of times the bottom in the non-interest-bearing mix, but then I thought you said that deposits might bottom the midpoint of the year and then grow in the second half. So if you actually expect that interest bearing deposits to bottom below the high 30s in the first half of the year and then grow to the high 30% level? Thanks.

Daniel Beck: No, Steve. The expectation is that we’re going to continue to see some mix shift, non-interest bearing into interest bearing really throughout all of 2023. And we would expect as we get into the fourth quarter that’s where we’re really going to see that bottom out from a non-interest bearing to total deposit perspective. At the same time, what we can see in the back half of 2023 is with a small increase in venture deployment and the slowdown in cash burn that we expect to continue and small improvement in the overall deposit bubble. So they are really two different things.

Steven Alexopoulos: Okay. But it’s an interest-bearing deposits where you’re looking for that benefit in the second half?

Daniel Beck: That’s right.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Brody Preston with UBS. Your line is now open.

Brody Preston: I just wanted to maybe just follow up in a line of questioning on the non-interest bearing. I just wanted to get a sense for, is there like a natural kind of level of non-interest-bearing deposits, from an account level perspective that need to be — these companies need to keep on hand. I just asked just because you guys have actually done a pretty good job of actually maintaining account growth over the last couple of quarters. And so I just wanted to get a sense for, if non-interest-bearing account levels, if there’s an average account level where these things kind of naturally bottom out.

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