Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:SNCY) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Jude Bricker: Which is particularly positive because we’ll be putting up double-digit growth rates by June, which is €“ so we’ll be able to catch most of €“ the growth rate will align with where the peak opportunities are.

Operator: Our next question will come from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth of Evercore.

Duane Pfennigwerth: Just to follow up on the last question. And I know we had an interesting couple of years to say the least. And prior to that, you had significantly restructured this business. But that 80% book for 1Q, do you have any feel for how that compares to kind of normal, if there is such a thing as normal?

Jude Bricker: Just on an estimation of about 5 points relative to history. We’re booking ahead. And a lot of that is just us aligning our algorithms to the demand environment. We need to load higher fares from the beginning. Recall that pricing is a heuristic algorithm. So, bookings determine fares. And a lot of that depends on our expectation going into the selling period and we’re aligning to the new environment. So, we’re probably ahead by about 5 points.

Duane Pfennigwerth: On CapEx, can you just remind us how are you thinking about 2023 and 2024 maybe versus the year just ended? Where do those plans stand today? And are you seeing any signs that the used 737 market is loosening up as MAX deliveries finally take the appropriate pace here?

Dave Davis: Without going into precise numbers, let me give you some color on CapEx. So, we added between seven and eight aircraft last year, or I should say in 2022. This year, we are not going to add as many planes. Jude mentioned the fact that we’re going to get growth mostly through utilization, but I would expect us to add probably one or two aircraft into the fleet this year. So that CapEx will be down significantly. We’re already lining up deliveries right now for 2024 and even into 2025. So we expect to resume growth in 2024, probably seven to nine aircraft, and the same in 2025. So we’re going to take a little bit of a pause here, which will bring CapEx down in 2023.

Jude Bricker: On the market, I’m pretty comfortable not being a buyer right at the moment. The opposite has happened, Duane. It’s actually a pretty strong market for 737-800 values, as airlines across the world extend leases to accommodate delays in their MAX order stream. There’s also sort of a broad rebound in demand across the globe. We’re still seeing some spot bankruptcies like Flyr in Norway last week €“ or this week. But these planes get absorbed really quickly. So we’re not going to get, in my view, a lot of price relief. But I’m confident we’ll get the planes we need.

Operator: Our next question will come from Catherine O’Brien of Goldman Sachs.

Catherine O’Brien: I know units costs have been lumpy. But if we just solved for unit costs in 1Q based on revenue and operating margin and maybe taking scheduled data for ASM, we get to CASMx growth in the high teens year-over-year. I guess, first, correct me if I’m wrong. But then you alluded to like a lot more block hours coming online. You’re doing that via higher utilization, which I’m guessing is pretty accretive on the CASMx side. I don’t know if there’s maybe like some efficiencies we’re getting as we move through the pilot contract. But we’ll just find it helpful if you guys could talk about the level of deceleration on CASMx we should expect from maybe that high teens in the first quarter.