Stoneridge, Inc. (NYSE:SRI) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

As Jim discussed earlier on the call, the estimated impact of the UAW strike is approximately $6.5 million in revenue in the fourth quarter, and approximately $1.9 million in operating income or approximately $0.05. As a result, we are refining our guidance to the low end of our previously provided adjusted EPS guidance range to reflect the estimated impact of the UAW strike. Our updated midpoint guidance implies fourth quarter adjusted EPS performance to be approximately $0.15, and revenue of approximately $238 million, representing continued earnings growth and stable revenue over the third quarter. Our implied margin run rate in the fourth quarter provides a strong foundation to support significant earnings going forward on our expectation of continued sales growth.

We remain focused on creating a strong run rate from both a top and bottom line perspective into 2024. As we’re referenced throughout the call this morning, we are expecting revenue growth next year that will significantly outperform our weighted average end markets. Turning to slide 16, I’d like to highlight the major drivers of growth for our 2024 preliminary revenue guidance. One of the most significant specific growth drivers in 2024 is the expected ramp up of our Smart 2 tachograph program, as Jim discussed in detail earlier on the call. We expect the program to contribute approximately $30 million of incremental revenue in 2024. This replaces approximately $10 million of revenue related to the Smart 1 tachograph this year, and is in addition to the estimated $20 million of incremental revenue expected this year for Smart 2.

As our MirrorEye OEM programs continue to launch and expand, we are expecting an incremental $30 million in 2024 related to MirrorEye OEM programs. This program is our largest OEM program, with an estimated peak annual revenue of approximately $60 million. Prior to launch, the OEM has increased the volume expectations compared to the initially awarded take rate due to increased market demand across the industry. In addition, we expect our first OEM program in North America to continue to ramp up and expand as MirrorEye launches on the second nameplate, and both the nameplates continue to ramp up production. Our MirrorEye programs continue to have significant upside potential as the system becomes more widely adopted and validated by major fleets.

Based on feedback received from fleets, we are optimistic that the take rates will increase over time and drive continued revenue upside for Stoneridge in both the OEM and retrofit markets. Other factors contributing to our growth in 2024 include the continued growth in our off-highway vision systems and aftermarket MirrorEye fleet applications. Furthermore, there are several OEM programs launching in Brazil as we continue to expand our OEM product offerings in South America. As we continue to build on the foundation of the last couple of quarters, we expect to drive strong performance to finish this year, and provide a good runway heading into 2024. We will provide our full 2024 guidance during our fourth quarter earnings call early next year.

Moving to slide 17, in closing, as evidenced by the strong operating performance in the quarter, this team is focused on strong execution and careful cost control to continue to drive margin improvement. We are very pleased with our progress during the quarter with sequential margin expansion, and are even more excited for 2024 as we expect our top line growth to support continued earnings power. In addition, we continue to execute on our long-term strategy by focusing on products that are drivetrain-agnostic, winning business in critical growth areas, and expanding our existing opportunities. Stoneridge is committed to driving shareholder value, and that focus remains at the forefront of all of our strategic initiatives. With that, I will open up the call to questions.

Operator: Thank you so much, Matt. At this time, we will conduct the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I will be moving up our first speaker, and this is Justin Long from Stephens Institution. Okay, Justin, you are now good to ask your question.