Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Barry Schneider: No. We continue to strive for 80%. We the team is doing, as Mark said, a phenomenal job. It’s a big challenge of bringing such a big asset up all at once. Transporter problems have been unfortunate, but we have several fixes in the works. Approaching the problem for both resiliency is also is getting back to full power capacity. So we remain confident that the operational levels we’re going to see 80% is the target the whole team is aware of. We’re all incentive to make that happen.

Mark Millett: And not to complicate the math. But if you think about it in January, we’re approaching 75% utilization right now, that’s 75% of ultimate even though the team is handcuffed because of the lower power input. So we are quite confident to get to that 80% for the year.

William Peterson: Okay. We’ll plug in 84%. No, just joking. Just on the — I guess, things like onshore and the infrastructure bill. You said this is an expectation to benefit in 2024. I guess have you seen orders. When do you expect to see orders, should we think of this more as a second half ’24 to really kind of benefit you? And then between, I guess, onshoring and infrastructure, specifically, which you’ve seen being more impactful for you this year?

Mark Millett: Just from a sort of a product mix, so to speak, the infrastructure growth. On the solar, it’s already — the solar has exploded. Renewables exploded last year, continues to grow dramatically. We were advantaged hugely both structural for the TOR tubes and also for flat roll for the support tubing. We’re starting to see — I don’t think we can be specific on how that ramps up. But directionally, we’re starting to see orders from bridge makers currently. And so that’s — the start, at least from my perspective, the start of a ramp-up in spend.

Barry Schneider: We also see in the long products, a lot of, let’s call it, foundational type structural sales. And even though it’s a smaller division, Steel of West Virginia is very, very full with us right now with stuff that is tangential, whether it’s solar fields, the support deal that goes in the ground or fork trucks and things like that, that go into these new factories and these new warehouses and data centers. So we do see a good bounce from that. We also see the pipeline industry in the states is picking up orders some cases for carbon sequestration lines as well as some major pipelines. So those markets are awake, and we see a lot of inquiry activity that is very exciting for us ultimately.

Theresa Wagler: And just I want to encourage that there are some of you on the phone right now that may not understand that the infrastructure program and the IRA and anything related to the roads and bridges and construction, they don’t really benefit long products. They benefit long products, they certainly benefit our steel & joist and deck operations. But additionally, the front roll operations have exposure to that as well, whether it’s through HVAC systems or pipe and tube, like Barry just mentioned there’s a lot of impact on the flat rolled side, and I would encourage you to think about that perspective as well.

Operator: Your next question for today is coming from John Tumazos, a private investor.

John Tumazos : Could you give us a little feedback on the potential 2025 CapEx. And with Sinton and the four coating lines in the aluminum and the carbon projects behind us, what are some of the leading candidates for the next capital investments going forward. And in particular, could you talk about growth in recycling where aluminum, copper, zinc have much lower global recycling rates than steel, in particular.

Theresa Wagler: Yes, we do have projects in mind for 2025. I’m not sure that we’re prepared to go into that today. I would say from the perspective of capital spending, as I mentioned earlier on the call, aluminum will probably have a tail of somewhere between, call it, $200 million and $250 million. Our teams are consistently bringing us wonderful ideas that have high returns associated with them. Again, I’ll point back to our ROIC. They do a good job of giving us those projects that have really great returns. So the number for 2025, I would say would be a minimum of probably $500 million, something like that, because you do still have some sustaining capital as well, which for us is very low at around $160 million, but there’s still some benefit there. Mark, I don’t know if you want to add any addition to that?

Mark Millett: [Indiscernible] The deal just to get the CapEx part, not the whole thing. But no, John — and Theresa has just mentioned, we have an absolutely incredible team that continues to be innovative. And if you were to — I don’t know, just be with us or be with that team. It’s incredible. We have a new digital planning technology that we’re exploiting, again, not big dollars, but it’s going to be an incredibly, incredibly high-margin niche business. We have two — suffice it to say, two product segments that we’re not in today in flat roll that we’re exploring and they have a couple of innovative things there. So the pipeline in steel is still there, for sure. I think also — and we’ve got to walk before we run. But in aluminum, I see that growth kind of paralleling the growth in steel, yes.

We get on the front end, make the basic substrate, so to speak. And then from a processing standpoint, for instance, there’s a massive, massive amount of the aluminum that gets prepaid today. That’s an expertise of ours. You can see growth and expansion there. So I think you witnessed it, John, almost personally over the years and shared our history, but we’ve clearly demonstrated the ability to be innovative and grow. I would emphasize grow in a very disciplined, intentional manner. That’s the only way you can get the return on invested capital numbers that we achieve. So both organically, but also through acquisition will continue to be opportunity there. But you will see us remain very, very disciplined, very, very intentional. We’re not going to overpay for anything, and we’re going to retain the best financial metrics in our industry.

John Tumazos : As we build our financial models, if in 2025, the CapEx fell to somewhere, let’s just say, for discussion in the range of $500 million to $1 billion, should we be increasing the share buyback dollars from the levels of the last several years given the drop in CapEx?

Theresa Wagler: So John, we want to be super clear that we see the share buyback program is a very good tool for us to be able to use and you’ve seen that. So very much the dividend, we’ve been increasing and we increased it with increases in our structural through-cycle cash flow generation when projects come online and then we do it pretty aggressively. We want to keep that positive momentum. But then we use that share buyback program during periods of excess cash flow when we maybe have less growth in mind, but we still are very much a growth company. To Mark’s point, whether that’s through greenfield assets or whether that’s through acquisitions. But at the same time, we have the luxury that we don’t have to sacrifice the share repurchase program. We absolutely can execute on all of those things. And that’s what you’ll continue to see us do in 2024 and 2025, absent extraneous things.