Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

David Lipschitz: Do you repeat that?

Carlos de Alba: Yeah. Yeah. Sure. Just on Sinton, given the outrage and that you experienced, but things now are ramping up nicely and you expect full production, well at least production throughout the fourth quarter. How do you see the evolution of the EBITDA generated by the company, by this — the plant Sinton?

Theresa Wagler: Carlos, we can’t give — we won’t give specific guidance on the earnings associated with Sinton. We are giving updated items on volume so that you can understand from a modeling perspective. So we would expect to see a significant improvement from the third quarter given the fact that we weren’t operating all of July. But that being said, I really can’t give you any guidance specific to what the EBITDA will be at Sinton.

Carlos de Alba: All right. And then just maybe one more on the fabrication business. You did mention strong forward pricing in your backlog. Is there any additional color that you can provide given, the extraordinary strong pricing that we have seen in recent quarters relative to history?

Theresa Wagler: No, that’s okay. It has to do with fabrication the pricing in the backlog. So from a historical basis and even from recent 2023, the pricing in the backlog is very strong. Much higher than previous historical peaks. We’ve seen that be maintained the spot market, where the order activity isn’t as strong as it was in 2022. It’s still really good from the — a historical basis, but that is contracting the backlog somewhat. So now it extends through the first quarter of 2024. And I think something else that we just — I want to keep in perspective. Mark mentioned it on his opening notes, but I want to reiterate it because I think it’s really important. We’ve been talking about the IRA monies, the Department of Energy monies, monies that are coming from the administration for public dollars.

It’s our estimate. And others would agree that there’s likely not even 5% to 10% of that money that’s been allocated or awarded yet. It’s going much slower than anyone had expected and much slower than the administrative — administration had indicated that it would. So those projects aren’t benefiting the elongation of construction, steel consumption success, asset investment, steel joist, and deck demand as well. We’re fully expecting, and what we’re hearing from the administration and from others is that those dollars will start flowing in the first half of 2024. So right now there’s a bit of a gap in funding and I think you’re seeing that in the volumes, but we fully expect that to pick up and improve in 2024 and 2025.

Carlos de Alba: Thank you very much.

Operator: Your next question for today is coming from Tristan Gresser at Exane BNP Paribas.

Tristan Gresser: Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe the first one, following up on the fabrication. You provided some guidance back in Q2 and I now understand that the stable volume guidance half and half is no longer valued. So I was wondering if — and it’s not the first time the guidance has been cut there, so what is driving quarter after quarter that they can have cut in that weakness? And you provided some color on the sequential movements. I guess on the scale side for Q4 volumes, can you tell us a little bit more about fab. And the same question a little bit on ASP, you guided for down 10% to 15% in H2 versus H1 on the ASP front. The Q3 ASP is already down 17% versus that level. So can you help us try to calibrate the weakness in ASP we should expect in Q4, but also in Q1 because you have some visibility into that quarter as well.