State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Brennan Hawken: Okay, no problem. And then another question just quickly on fee revenue. You flagged that the large client migration is going to be part of the outlook. How much of that will be impacting the third quarter delta? And then how much will be — how should we be thinking about the timeframe for whatever is left and when that would end up playing out?

Eric Aboaf: Yeah, I think the broader context, as you recall, Brennan, is that we disclosed that large client deconversion was going to happen over multiple years. We announced it well over a year ago and we described it in our K at about 1.7% of fee revenue. So you can calculate that through. I think in our fourth quarter earnings call in January, I described that we had seen about $20 million on a run-rate come out, but I can reconfirm that. In the next quarter third — this coming third quarter we’ll see about $20 million come out sequentially. And then in the fourth quarter, there’s another piece of about another $15 million that will come out as well. And then after that, it’s several more quarters before we see the later and final installments. But that’s incorporated into our guide.

Brennan Hawken: Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator: Your next question comes from Alex Blostein from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Alexander Blostein: Hey, good morning, guys. So just maybe staying on the deposit question for another minute. Why do you guys think this catch-up happening now sort of late in the cycle? We’ve obviously been in a higher rate environment for well over a year. So curious if you can provide more color on particular customer segments in the US that’s driving that and sort of the discussions around that? And then maybe as you sort of think about the end state for US interest-bearing deposits, I think, you’re at 3.5 or so today. The cumulative beta on that is, I think, is around 70% relative to the Fed funds rate. Should we think of that approaching, I don’t know, 85%, 90% kind of how do you think about where that deposit price in the US will stabilize?

Eric Aboaf: Alex, it’s a good question. I mean, we’re clearly navigating and living through an interesting environment that we’ve not seen in two decades, right? You’ve got to go back pre-crisis before you see 5% prevailing rates. I think if you — if you also think about how swiftly we’ve gotten to where we are, that’s why we created — we put some of this information back on page 16 in our materials. You see this cycle has moved twice as far in terms of the uptick in rates in half the time of the last cycle. And so what plays out as that happens is that we always have clients that, as rates move up, they begin discussing with us and engaging with us on what would be appropriate maybe putting in place multiple balance tiers, having discussions about their expectations, we negotiate and so forth.

And you can imagine large client discussions occur over three, six, sometimes even nine-month periods. And so if you kind of turn back the clock and say, when did some of those discussions occur, some of them early ones may have started second quarter of last year, third quarter of last year, fourth quarter of last year because there was also a perspective among our clients and us for that matter, that rates might continue to 5%, but they might have gone to 4% or 3%, which would have put us and our clients in a different position from a NIM and NII and rate-setting perspective. So I think it’s really the speed of this that has played out and on one hand. And on the other, the inverted yield curve gives clients and the prevalence of the money funds and treasuries and so forth, give clients an alternative, right, that’s more vivid, I’d say, than in some of the past cycles.