STAG Industrial, Inc. (NYSE:STAG) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: Our next question comes from Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets.

Michael Carroll: Just off of the last few questions. I know, Bill, that you’re taking a step back in the investment market. I mean, how long do you expect to be on the sidelines? And really, what do you have to see before you start reramping up activity? Does the capital markets need to stabilize before you feel comfortable doing that?

Bill Crooker: I think that’s a catalyst for the market to open up generally. If we see good opportunities and sellers willing to sell it what returns that we’re requiring in this capital market environment, we’ll execute on those. We’re still underwriting transactions. And just what happens is we’re just — we’re back into this time where the bid-ask spreads are wider. And that’s what that happens when you have a rapid spike in interest rates. And then what happens, usually, you get one or 2 deals closed and then you start to get market comps and everybody feels a little bit more confident of what market pricing is. So we’re still underwriting deals. We’re still evaluating deals but we’re just underwriting for higher initial returns.

Michael Carroll: Okay, great. And then, I’m not sure if you mentioned this yet or not. But last year, at this time, you kind of gave us a look through on your 2023 renewal process. I guess, can you give us an update or how you’re thinking about 2024? And will cash lease spreads next year be similar to what they are this year? Or to date, are they similar to or there [ph] this year?

Bill Crooker: Yes. So we’ve addressed 37% of our expecting leasing for 2024, it’s about 5 million square feet. And the rental spreads on that is about 30%. And then from next year for what we expect for leasing spreads, I mean, we’re not giving all of our guidance on this call. But it’s 25% to 30% is, I think, where I’m comfortable saying leasing spreads are for next year at this time.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Mike Mueller with JPMorgan.

Mike Mueller: I guess — can you talk a little bit about the view of single tenant versus multi-tenant buildings right now? Because it sounds like your initial developments are going to be more multi-tenant skewed. And should we think of that as the template for the developments going forward?

Bill Crooker: Well, I think our view is we’re trying to achieve the best risk-adjusted returns, Mike. And in our developments, specifically, we want to make sure that our developments are meeting the demand in the market. And so for that Tampa development, it’s smaller users. And so we want to make sure we’re building to meet that demand. You said 25% of our portfolio is multi-tenant today. So we went out at our IPO 11, 12 years ago, yes, it was a single tenant strategy but that has morphed over the years. In multi-tenant, I would say, over the past couple of years, our acquisitions are probably close to 50-50 multi-tenant single tenant.

Mike Mueller: Got it. Okay. And then, I guess, what’s the spot view on a range of acquisition cap rates for comparable product that you would be looking at today, just given the backup in rates. Is the 4Q transactions that you penciled, is that — do you think the right ballpark range for right now?

Bill Crooker: The Q4 transactions were sourced in Q3. And so those were about 6.7%. I would say now, depending on where the assets are in relation — where the leases are in relation to market in place is probably got to be high 6s, low 7s with probably a mark-to-market opportunity that’s not included in that cap rate.