STAG Industrial, Inc. (NYSE:STAG) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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William Crooker: Yes, another $30 million or so million, Mike, that we spent.

Michael Carroll: Okay. Great. No, that’s helpful. And then I guess, how do you think about pursuing new starts? I mean, does the reason slowdown does that make you want to slow down in making these decisions and waiting for these assets to get leased up? I guess, how do you kind of underwrite those new projects?

William Crooker: Yes. I mean it’s market by market specific and return specific. So if there’s a market that we see really healthy supply/demand and we like the return profile we’re certainly we’ll certainly start a project in one of those markets. What I like about us phasing into this development platform is that we’re not buying the raw land and going through all the entitlement work and having, call it, a 3-year horizon between day 1 and finishing the project. So our time horizons are much shorter, usually 12 months or a little bit longer. So the outlook is clearer, I think, the returns — expected returns are a little lower because there’s less risk. So if the market is strong and the returns are adequate for what we expect for developments, which are obviously much higher than a stabilized acquisition.

That would be fine entering to more projects. As we said, we only have another $30 million left to spend on these projects. The Greenville project, the vacant asset leased immediately, and that sister building should do really well. So I think we’re balanced with our approach here. I think we’re probably a little bit conservative. And to the extent we see a good opportunity, we’ll execute on it.

Operator: Our next question comes from Mike Mueller from JPMorgan.

Michael Mueller: Just a quick one on cap rates and guidance. And Bill, I know you talked a little bit about acquisition volumes being wider range and back-end loaded. Just if we’re in this world where the 10-year in the 4s-6s, 4s-7s or so for a period of time. Do you think your cap rate guidance holds?

William Crooker: Well, where our cap rate guidance holds considering what we’ve already closed and put under contract. That kind of weighs it down, it was a different interest rate period. But in terms of new acquisitions putting it under contract, those are going to be higher yields at the high end of the range and maybe even a little bit higher.

Operator: Our next question comes from Bill Crow from Raymond James.

William Crow: Most of my questions have been answered. But you alluded to stronger leasing and some big box space. I’m wondering if that’s e-commerce tenants or whether there’s any kind of theme in the demand that you’re seeing there?

William Crooker: Yes. I mean, there’s one very large e-commerce tenant that we’re all household name that’s leased some of the space. Some big retailers took some space. And I think another one was a large e-commerce tenant too. Yes. So I was just looking over to Steve and he’s shaking his head, yes, so I got that one right. But I just want to caution those comments in that this is the start of it, right? So I don’t want my comments to be extrapolated like big box pack where everything is healthy there. But it’s starting, we’re seeing some positive signs there, which is great. I just — I don’t want to oversell that.

Operator: Our next question comes from Camille Bonnel from Bank of America.

Andrew Berger: This is Andrew Berger on for Camille. I appreciate your outlook on market rent growth. Just curious if you have a view on when we’ll see peak vacancy?

William Crooker: It’s market-by-market specific. The markets that have oversupplied right now, you could see peak vacancy at the end of this year and start. It could take all of next year to kind of wind that down to more normalized levels. And then steadier markets, I think they’re going to continue to be steady. So maybe you see a little bit of a spike in vacancy as we move through the year, but it won’t be as material as some of those other markets. It really is a market-by-market answer. And so it’s hard to generalize it.

Andrew Berger: Okay. That makes sense. And just circling back to the earlier comments around slower decision making and the decision shifting maybe from a real estate manager to C-suite. Just curious what do you think it will take to shift that decision back to the real estate managers? Is it really a matter of supply, interest rates or something else?

William Crooker: It could be one or both of those. As tenants are required to make quicker decisions, and that’s kind of on the supply side of it. They have to push that decision-making capabilities down to the regional teams. Otherwise, deals won’t get done in the list space. I think if you’ve got interest rates coming down and there’s more confidence with some of the C-suites in these companies then they may just say, let’s take down space. We’re projecting more demand, higher revenues, let’s build out our supply chain and to get ahead of that. So I think it could be one or both or some combination.

Operator: This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Bill Crooker for closing comments.

Bill Crooker: Thanks, everyone, for participating in the call this morning. As always we appreciate the thoughtful questions, and we look forward to seeing many of you at the upcoming conferences. Thank you.

Operator: This concludes today’s teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

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