We recently compiled a list of the 10 Worst Performing Software Stocks to Buy According to Analysts. In this article, we are going to take a look at where SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC) stands against the other software stocks.
Gartner projects that global software spending will rise by 14.2% in 2025 to $1.25 trillion, making it one of the fastest-growing segments in technology, second only to the data center sector’s expected 23.2% growth. This surge highlights the software market’s crucial role in driving innovation and operational efficiency across industries. The sector’s sustained expansion is largely fuelled by the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and other advanced technologies, which are reshaping business operations and unlocking new investment opportunities.
Over the past 15 years, a significant factor behind this growth has been the widespread transition to cloud computing and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) models. These advancements have made software more accessible, scalable, and cost-effective, further accelerating its adoption across industries. As the software market continues to evolve, it remains at the forefront of technological progress, offering lucrative opportunities for investors while shaping the digital transformation of multiple sectors.
According to Forrester’s February 11 report, “Global Tech Market Forecast”, global technology spending is expected to increase by 5.6% in 2025, reaching $4.9 trillion. This growth will be primarily driven by key areas such as cybersecurity, cloud computing, generative AI, and the expanding digital economy. Notably, financial services, government, and media will account for 46% of global tech spending in 2024. However, Forrester estimates that by 2029, 70% of all tech spending will be concentrated in software and IT services, reinforcing software’s growing dominance within the industry.
Further emphasizing this trend, The Business Research Company’s January 2025 report forecasts that the global software products market will expand from $1.8 trillion in 2024 to approximately $2.0 trillion in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.7%. Looking further ahead, the market is projected to reach $3.0 trillion by 2029, maintaining a strong CAGR of 11.3%.
With software becoming increasingly integrated into daily life and business operations, demand is surging at a robust rate. As a result, the software market remains one of the most attractive investment opportunities, supported by continued technological advancements and a rapidly expanding digital economy.
Our Methodology
To identify the 10 worst-performing software stocks to buy according to analysts, we first screened all U.S.-listed software companies with a market capitalization above $300 million and a stock price over $10, excluding smaller and more volatile stocks. We then narrowed the selection to companies that had experienced a year-to-date (YTD) share price decline of at least 20%, further refining the list to include only those with a potential upside of 10% or more. Finally, we ranked the bottom 10 stocks based on YTD returns, placing the worst-performing stocks at the top. Additionally, we included data on hedge fund holdings in these companies as of Q4 2024 to provide further insight into investor interest.
Note: All pricing data is as of market close on February 28.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
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SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC)
YTD returns: -28%
Potential Upside: 50%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 29
SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC) provides on-demand supply chain management solutions through an online hosted software suite. Eliminating the need for complex on-premise software, SPS Commerce’s online platform works smoothly with retail customers’ existing systems and makes it easier to track shipments, manage stock levels, and process orders without needing extra IT staff or expensive equipment.
SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC)’s share price performance in 2024 was lackluster as it fell 5% that year. The weak momentum spilled into 2025 as well and by February 10 the stock was down 4%. On February 10, the company announced its Q4 2024 results which were received with a negative response and subsequently the shares tanked 14% on February 11, leading to a YTD decline of 28%.
The primary reason for the decline was the company’s exposure to supply chain management, potential tariff and policy changes could have an impact on its growth trajectory and thus investors appear jittery, leading to share price volatility. Otherwise, SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC)’s quarterly results were healthy with 19% YoY revenue growth, and revenue and EPS both moderately above street expectations. Moreover, guidance was not bad either with revenue growth projected at 19%-20% in 2025.
After the results, analyst responses were mixed on the stock. Craig-Hallum analyst Anthony Stoss reaffirmed his Buy rating with a price target of $220, whereas Baird analyst Joe Vruwink lowered his price target to $175 from $188 and reiterated his Neutral rating. Consensus still appears optimistic with an average price target of $200, reflecting a 50% potential upside.
Overall SPSC ranks 8th on our list of worst performing software stocks to buy according to analysts. While we acknowledge the potential of SPSC as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than SPSC but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and Complete List of 59 AI Companies Under $2 Billion in Market Cap.
Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
