Spirit Airlines, Inc. (NYSE:SAVE) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Michael Linenberg: Hey. Good morning everyone. Hey. I just – as I think about your unit revenue guide for the June quarter and your top line guide, I know Matt, you highlighted some of the issues that have driven, call it, the subpar result. How much of it is with respect to new market development, it does look like you are adding a lot of new city pairs. How much does it take? Like what’s the timing for those markets to ramp up? Presumably, there is promotional activity initially to build traction. Just give us a sense of maybe how much exposure you have to developments and the ramp-up time.

Matt Klein: Yes. Thanks Mike. So, we have announced quite a few new routes. A lot of them are day a week. Not all of them, a lot of them are. So, the actual exposure we have right now in Q2 is really not that high. It’s actually relatively low. As move into Q3 and Q4, that number will increase a little bit. But as of right now, I wouldn’t necessarily say that, that’s something where we have over rotated there. We will be very careful with how we how we do this because we also recognize that new routes, bring risk and we are trying to de-risk as much as we can. So, we will be smart about it, and we are doing some things that we haven’t done as much in the past. And on top of that, there is a couple of cities that we have been smaller. We have been larger in them in the past and cities that we need to kind of reestablish some of our position there. We think that will help overall. So, I hope that helps.

Michael Linenberg: Okay. Great. No, that does. Thanks. And then just second question to Scott. As I think about liquidity. I know in the past, you gave us a year-end number. It does seem like that the demand trends are maybe a little bit behind trend. I am not sure how much that impacts the year-end liquidity guide. But as I think about just seasonality and going from the March quarter to the June quarter, given the fact that Easter was earlier this year and sort of squaring it with the revenue guide, is it conceivable that the ATL could be down, I don’t know, $100 million to $150 million quarter-over-quarter? And again, that’s just one part of operating cash flow. But is my thinking about it right? Any I realize it’s sort of a multipronged question, but any clarity would be great. Thanks.

Scott Haralson: Yes. Hi. Thanks Mike. Yes, I think the ATL actually probably for the first quarter was a little bit lower. Heading into the second quarter, bookings were a little light, which I think is part of some of the cash generation negative in the second quarter, but we do expect that to turnaround. And I think for the full year, we will probably be a little bit lower than we initially guided to, probably in the $1.2 million to $1.3 million range at the end of the year. And that doesn’t include any additional financings that are still possible. But we think we will sort of be cash neutral, if not cash positive for the remaining part of the year. So, we will have to kind of see how the second half plays out.

Michael Linenberg: Great. Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator: The next question comes from Chris Stathoulopoulos with Susquehanna. Please go ahead.

Chris Stathoulopoulos: Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So Scott or Ted, the high-single digit capacity guide for 3Q, I am guessing is departure driven, you spoke to adding capacity. I believe you said in markets where you have a smaller presence and you have given a lot of color on what – your thoughts around peak versus off-peak, but if you could help kind of frame the composition of capacity for 3Q both as it relates to departures and how you are, again, thinking about allocating peak versus non-peak. And then part B, you spoke to what’s happening here within Florida and short-haul Latin America. Do you believe that industry capacity within these markets, which are primary to Spirit should eventually normalize? Thank you.

Scott Haralson: Yes. I will start, this is Scott, on utilization. There are some puts and takes in there, obviously, with deliveries coming through the year as well as increased AOGs and changes and sort of summer utilization as we head into the peak. So, we will have a higher non-AOG fleet utilization. But overall, utilization on a fleet basis, maybe down a smidge just because of the number of AOGs. And so that sort of plays into the utilization piece, but with the deliveries will be up in the sort of higher-single digits on a capacity basis in Q3, that will flatten out in Q4 to probably down a bit in Q4 versus Q3.

Matt Klein: Right. And Chris, the other part of your question there, we expect stage will be down a little bit, but it’s not going to be dramatic. So, we would anticipate likely maybe slightly more departures than you would see from overall ASM growth. But it should be – it really should kind of normalize itself out to be pretty much flat in terms of how the ASMs will be produced. And also, I would tell you that I think you asked about Latin America normalization. So, supply and demand are very powerful things. They always work themselves out. So, the answer to your question is yes, and we will just have to see kind of how that plays out and how the timing is. We have a great cost structure. Our cost structure allows us to compete and it’s all about making sure we can generate revenue. And a lot of the things that we are talking about doing will also benefit the Latin America and Caribbean part of our network as well.

Chris Stathoulopoulos: Okay. And then my second question. So, as we think about ‘25, you gave it down, I think it’s high-single digit capacity guide. You have all these right-sizing efforts as it relates to cost, the $100 million in cost savings effectively reshaping the cost base. AOGs admittedly our moving target. But – and post-demand arguably normalizing here. But if we put this all together, as it stands today and looking at our models, do you believe that Spirit can stay below $0.08 within CASM? Thank you.

Scott Haralson: I mean there is a lot of puts and takes here. I mean we have some of the initiatives, from what Ted mentioned around utilization. We have some of our standalone plan initiatives that will influence some of that stuff. But I think we are probably targeting a number around that, actually.

Chris Stathoulopoulos: Okay. Thank you.

DeAnne Gabel: Pam, we have time for one more question.

Operator: Alright. And this is from the line of Dan McKenzie with Seaport Global. Please go ahead.

Dan McKenzie: Is underway expected to be accretive to profitability, does the current plan contemplate profitability in any quarters this year, or at least can it get you to a breakeven operating margin?

Scott Haralson: We missed the first part of that question, Dan.

Dan McKenzie: The first part is really, does the current plan contemplate profitability in any of the quarters this year. And if not, can at least get you to a breakeven operating margin.

Scott Haralson: Yes. I think we are looking at for this back half of the year to be on an operating basis positive for Q3 and Q4. On a net basis, we will be kind of right at just above breakeven on a net basis. Q4 is going to be right at probably breakeven. But we think we will be sort of cash neutral, maybe generate a little bit of cash in the back half of the year.

Dan McKenzie: Wow. Okay. Nice. And Ted, the consumer bill, I believe Spirit was in favor of the new DOT rules. And I am just wondering if you can share some perspective about the incremental cost of the operation from compliance with this new set of rules? And what has to happen to reduce that cost headwind? And I guess what I am wondering is you might need to carry more spare aircraft, maintain a higher headcount, or is the cost of the new rules just de minimis?

Ted Christie: Thanks Dan. I don’t know perhaps where you got your feedback, but we are not in favor of those rules. And I think the industry is digesting them as we speak and trying to decide how they are going to provide feedback. There was a process in place by which feedback should have been solicited. I don’t believe it was done as robustly as it has been done in the past. So, the airline industry does a good job at taking care of its passengers and its guests when they are disrupted. We have always been forward leaning on our ability to get guests re-accommodated where we can to offer refunds. We do all of that stuff anyway. And the competitive pressure is what’s a best at making sure each airline does the right thing for their own traveling public. So, for now, we will let this play out and see what happens next.

Dan McKenzie: I see. Okay. Thanks for the clarification.

DeAnne Gabel: And with that, thank you all for joining us today. Please contact Investor or Media Relations if you have any further questions.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen that concludes today’s call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

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