Rob Dillard: Yes, I can give you that color, Cleve. Consumer volumes, really excited about the volumes this year, mid single digit positive across the board, across the various businesses. All those businesses have great consumer oriented strategies. Price cost in consumer is actually going to be meaningfully negative, and it’s because of this metal price overlap that we talked about, the $0.54 from last year and then another carryover this year from the deflation that we’re having in tin plate, so that will be actually a pretty meaningful negative price cost. Then we’re also anticipating that resin prices will turn over in the year and that will provide some price cost headwind as well, so consumer will actually see relatively meaningful negative price cost, which is a big driver for the bridge between 2022 to 2023.
Industrial volumes, yes, we think they’re going to be down low single digits on price, you know, as we’ve talked about down low single digits, but not in such a meaningful way that price cost will be a meaningful headwind for the year. The other business, it’s got so much diversity in it. What we really–the way to really characterize that is normalizing end market trends and taking cost out of those businesses should result in some pretty meaningful operating profit improvement. Then there is just normal way headwind from non-operating items, like depreciation and amortization going up $32 million, interest going up and tax kind of normalizing to the statutory levels that we project at.
Cleve Rueckert: Thank you very much. That’s it for me.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners. Your line is now open.
Mark Weintraub: Thank you. Just to clarify, I think you’ve stated it, but if the metal pack overlay benefit was $0.54 last year and you’re looking at $0.20 to $0.30, are you expecting a negative $0.74 to $0.84 comparison from metal pack overlay ’23 versus ’22? Is that the way to understand it, or are we just giving up $0.20 of $0.30 of the $0.54?
Rob Dillard: Yes, it’s not just metal pack because there was–you know, we did have a pretty meaningful tin plate business in RPC, and then–yes, but that is discretely the impact of the positive going away and the negative coming in.
Mark Weintraub: Got it, so that $6.48, we can actually back off–as we’re bridging to the guidance, we can back off $0.74 to $0.84, so that’s–as you say, that’s a very big part of the seeming bridge. Am I getting that correct?
Rob Dillard: Right, and when we normalize it, I don’t think that that–I think that there’s opportunity there from normal operating conditions versus just taking it away and saying that was all one-time.
Mark Weintraub: Well, would we just add back the $0.20 to $0.30 to get to normal, or is there something above then or different from that?
Rob Dillard: I don’t think we’ve modeled it that finely, but we definitely have a lot of productivity in that business.
Mark Weintraub: Okay, and then I guess the other elements of the–and thanks for the bridge in the last question. I guess M&A, with RTS, maybe that’s not so big, but how impactful M&A and self-help as we’re thinking about the bridge is that in the calculation of what you think ’23 will be versus ’22?
Howard Coker: RTS is not in our forward-looking numbers at this point in time. I think Rodger said, or maybe Rob earlier, that we hope to have that closed by midyear, second half of the year, but we haven’t built that in. Only Sjkern, of course, closed late last year and it’s nominal.
Mark Weintraub: Okay, super. That is helpful. I guess one last try, and understand that there’s sensitivity, but on the URB, can you share, are the contracts still tied directly or indirectly to indexes or is that not even how your product is getting priced anymore?
Rodger Fuller: It’s Rodger. Yes, if you look at in general at our total URB tons, about 60% or so is tied to the RISI index, 20% or so is still tied to OCC moves, and the final 20% is open market.
Mark Weintraub: Super, that’s very helpful. Thanks so much.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Adam Josephson with Keybanc Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Adam Josephson: Thanks, good morning everyone. I hope you’re well. Rob, just a couple of clarification questions to start off, if you don’t mind. The mid single digit consumer volume growth that you’re expecting, is that organic? It just seems like–I don’t remember the last time consumer volumes were up mid single digits in a year. I think that would be a multi-year high growth rate amid these pretty weak conditions, so just trying to understand that volume expectation a little bit better in consumer.
Howard Coker: Hey Adam, let me handle at least the macro view of that and let Rob take over from there. We’ve talked really over the last several years, and you can see it in our capital spend pool, of how much new growth capital we’ve put towards our overall businesses, but it’s been disproportionately weighted against the consumer side, so we’ve just got known–I mean, we’ve got a launch that’s going national right now, a new line in Chicago. Actually, I was watching Squawk Box this morning and the CFO of the company was touting a new product, so we’ve got a lot of things going on within our legacy businesses that give us great confidence in terms of what we’re forecasting. Then you take the big hit we took in the end of the fourth quarter and that 4 to 4.5 tangibly in terms of new growth opportunities organic that we’ve talked about in terms of how much capital we’re deploying around the world, as well as a bit of softness towards the end of the fourth quarter, that gives us great confidence there, so.
Rob, on the–
