So things like control systems, things like your network system, you OvrC, your remote management system products are the ones that are there. And so the way we sized it last time was we went out, we did a bunch of survey, work with our partners and asked them how much has your inventory grown. We also look very specifically at our control products and look at how many controller shipments do we have versus how many were installed and took that differential and tried to extrapolate. So that’s where we came up with the numbers we talked about last time. But knowing the magnitude of this issue and trying to be more scientific about it our product team and our ops teams went hand in hand and started doing a bunch of really good work. And whenever we ship a product that is OvrC enabled when that box leaves our warehouse, we’re doing an outbound scan on that product for warranty purposes and to record that it went out the door.
Tying that together with the data that comes from OvrC, we know when that exact box and SKU comes online for the first time and we can measure that time frame. And all that can be measured now we can go back and look historically. And so we asked our teams to go back and look and say, wait what was the average time between when a product left our warehouse and it got installed. Now again this only works for products that come online that do have that connectivity. So we went back and looked at those products, again, primarily our controllers, our networking, our IP power, our surveillance products, and measured that time frame. We will then see how did that time frame expand. And you can see it is starting to expand about the middle of 2021, and it kept expanding all the way up to the middle of 2022.
And now we can see that curve coming down and the time frame contracting. So we’re using that and that’s where we come up with that regression to project what’s going to happen in 2023. I can’t guarantee you it’s all going to come out. We still have a thought that maybe some of it stays there. But those are the main products. In addition to those proprietary products, we then say what other products that don’t connect or that are third-party products that might also be there. So things like AVRs were really tough last year. We know some of the streaming audio products were very short of stock last year. And so we take the specific data that we have around our connected products, we put some extrapolation on how we think other products attach to that to come up with the overall numbers that we’re talking about.
Keith Hughes: Okay. And just one final thing. You had mentioned the impact in the first and second quarter. Is it net of 20%, or was it 20 million? It was wasn’t clear.
Mike Carlet: What’s interesting is it’s about the same thing.
Keith Hughes: I’m looking at the numbers yeah, I get it but that’s one Mike. Okay.
Mike Carlet: Yeah. So it should be around $20 million plus or minus it could be $15 million to $25 million. Again, we’re doing some analysis here, but $15 million to $25 million in each of the first three quarters. But on a year-over-year basis standpoint in Q1 and Q2 because inventory was coming in last year and coming out this year, the overall year-over-year change is going to be 18%, 19%, 20% each quarter. By the time we get to Q3, while it’s still going to be $15 million or $20 million coming out, the year-over-year impact will be basically flat because that’s the same thing that came out in 2022.
Keith Hughes: Okay. Thank you very much.
Mike Carlet: No problem.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Brian Ruttenbur with Imperial Capital. You may proceed.
