Snap One Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ:SNPO) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Chris Snyder: Thank you. And I appreciate all the guidance. Certainly not an easy macro to guide in, but I was just hoping for me a little bit more color on what macro assumptions underlie the guidance. Because it seems to suggest a further deterioration in the resi backdrop. Because I’m looking at Q4 and I adjust for days and the inventory headwind you guys provided, it seems to suggest about low double-digit organic growth versus the 2% to 5% guided for in 2023? Thank you.

Mike Carlet: Sure Chris. Yes. So, I think as we think about 2023 if I was going to think about components of growth and I’ll talk about roughly around the midpoint of our guidance range. 2% to 3% of that will be pricing, most of which is carryover from the pricing we already did last year. Very minimal pricing impact this year. We announced about a blended 0.5 point price change on February 1st that just took effect this week and that’s really the only pricing activity as we sit here today that we anticipate in 2023. We think our new local stores and the ramp-up of local stores will drive another 2% to 3% growth. The biggest headwind out there as we talked about is that inventory number, which is going to be around a 9% headwind, maybe 10%, maybe 8% depending upon how that destocks or where it falls out.

There’s a really small piece of carryover M&A from last year of about a point. And so if you do all that what we’re left with from volume is a down 2% to 3% from just a market standpoint. And we’re looking at that saying what we’re hearing from our integrators is while they still have good backlogs, the backlog’s a little bit lower than it used to be. We believe the capacity issue that’s there but we do think there’ll be some integrators at the bottom end maybe not. Mostly the backlog dip into less than full capacity which may drive some small decreases in the overall market. So we are assuming that the market will see some small contraction this year as housing activity and remodel activity remain a bit challenged. I think that’s probably the biggest variable out there as we think about what’s going to happen for the full year.

I think we feel really good about our visibility into the other numbers. And I think this sort of volume number and the market backdrop and our ability to capture share of wallet during that time frame is going to be where we really see performance can be up to how we’re able to perform and then what does the market do with the macro that’s out there.

Chris Snyder: No, thank you. I appreciate all that color. And then for my follow-up kind of maybe a longer-term one and it’s on the integrator count. It didn’t really grow in 2022 obviously a very tight labor market. But what gives you guys confidence over a multiyear basis that that can be driven higher? And does that present any risk to the longer-term growth algorithm? Thank you.

John Heyman: This is John. It’s a great question, Chris. We feel strongly that there’s a significant market, tens of thousands of integrators who we don’t do business with today. Many of those are in the security and commercial sector, but there’s others as well who are buying smart home technology. And I would just say last year our sales force was intensely focused on helping integrators find product because of the supply chain. So the notion of being able to go out and recruit new integrators was just something they didn’t have time for. And second in some areas we were concerned about inventory availability. And so I feel like our acquisition efforts were hampered a bit last year because of that. We’re looking forward to getting back to normal with the acquisition programs that have worked for this company for a decade where we’re able to recruit 2000 to 3000 new integrators annually.