Worm Capital LLC, an investment management firm, published its “Longleaf Partners Small-Cap Fund” second quarter 2021 investor letter – a copy of which can be downloaded here. A portfolio quarterly return of -15.18% net of fees, was recorded by the Worm Capital’s long/short equity growth strategy for the second half of 2021, and -1.49% for its long-only equity strategy, while its benchmark, the S&P 500 Index, by comparison returned 15.25% over the same period. You can view the fund’s top 5 holdings to have an idea about their top bets for 2021.
In the Q2 2021 investor letter of Worm Capital, the fund mentioned Shopify Inc. (NYSE: SHOP), and discussed its stance on the firm. Shopify Inc. is an Ottawa, Canada-based e-commerce company, that currently has a $190.5 billion market capitalization. SHOP delivered a 34.73% return since the beginning of the year, extending its 12-month returns to 44.81%. The stock closed at $1,525.06 per share on August 06, 2021.
Here is what Worm Capital has to say about Shopify Inc. in its Q2 2021 investor letter:
“In particular, the very nature of travel is changing: Longer stays, more flexible remote work policies, and so on. As its marketplace matures, we see significant similarities to our position in Shopify: An international focus led by managers who understand that, in land-grab environment, focusing on its unique value proposition for its sellers—i.e. keep costs low, improve the platform with additional features, etc.—takes precedent over short-term earnings. In other words, we like businesses that play the long game. Unlike Airbnb, Shopify drove positive attribution this past quarter. Still, we think this opportunity is still vastly undervalued over the long-term.
Last year, in the Q2 2020 Investor Letter, we wrote a bit about the similarities and differences between AMZN and SHOP, but concluded they “both display winner-take-most dynamics in their respective domains.” We still believe that thesis is true: E-commerce is still, relatively speaking, in its early days. Despite the pandemic push, e-commerce retail still represents less than 15% of overall retail sales, per latest Fed data.
What that means, in practice, is that the opportunity for low-end disruption (i.e. create a scalable backbone for sellers to launch e-commerce business cheaply) is an enormous, underappreciated opportunity to create new economic value. Shopify is growing its GMV at high velocity (114% YoY in its most recent quarter to over $37 billion) but it’s a tricky business to value—which is good. We like tricky valuations. Our research process looks out several years into the future, which is really the only way to value a business properly—especially in a disruptive environment. (Trying to look at potential short-term earnings or even a simple price-to-sales multiple is not a good way to model out valuations on Shopify.) When thinking about a position like Shopify, we view them as generational company—much like AMZN—that is building the global infrastructure to enable small and medium-sized business to transact online, and, most importantly, keep their unique identity and branding.
Where AMZN optimizes for efficiency, SHOP optimizes for experience. The scale of this opportunity is vast, and Shopify’s reach is wide. The focus—much like ABNB—is keeping costs low for sellers, attract new vendors, improving the ecosystem for merchants. “The rebels are winning,” Shopify president Harley Finkelstein said recently (in a quote we liked so much we made it the title of this letter). “We are betting on a different vision of the future of commerce. We are making it possible for every business to present their brand in their own unique way. A stark contrast to selling on a centralized marketplace.””
Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock.com
Based on our calculations, Shopify Inc. (NYSE: SHOP) ranks 28th in our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. SHOP was in 91 hedge fund portfolios at the end of the first quarter of 2021, compared to 90 funds in the fourth quarter of 2020. Shopify Inc. (NYSE: SHOP) delivered a 37.57% return in the past 3 months.
Hedge funds’ reputation as shrewd investors has been tarnished in the last decade as their hedged returns couldn’t keep up with the unhedged returns of the market indices. Our research has shown that hedge funds’ small-cap stock picks managed to beat the market by double digits annually between 1999 and 2016, but the margin of outperformance has been declining in recent years. Nevertheless, we were still able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that outperformed the S&P 500 ETFs by 115 percentage points since March 2017 (see the details here). We were also able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that underperformed the market by 10 percentage points annually between 2006 and 2017. Interestingly the margin of underperformance of these stocks has been increasing in recent years. Investors who are long the market and short these stocks would have returned more than 27% annually between 2015 and 2017. We have been tracking and sharing the list of these stocks since February 2017 in our quarterly newsletter.
At Insider Monkey, we scour multiple sources to uncover the next great investment idea. For example, pet market is growing at a 7% annual rate and is expected to reach $110 billion in 2021. So, we are checking out the 5 best stocks for animal lovers. We go through lists like the 10 best battery stocks to pick the next Tesla that will deliver a 10x return. Even though we recommend positions in only a tiny fraction of the companies we analyze, we check out as many stocks as we can. We read hedge fund investor letters and listen to stock pitches at hedge fund conferences. You can subscribe to our free daily newsletter on our homepage.
Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
