For example, Mero-2 that just started up in Brazil, at the turn of year. You have Mero-3 coming through Mero-4. We have Gato do Mato after that. Vito is up and running and delivering within the first-year top quartile schedule, top quartile availability. We have then, Whale coming after that, Sparta coming on top of that even before you go into the Hattori project. And then, of course, you have LNG Canada that is also sort of making good progress. And LNG Canada, while it does not have a lot of, if any bookable reserves, you can imagine how much value that is going to create. We continue to be very, very focused on the overall cash flow potential of this company. As indicated by our confidence, giving a 6% per annum free cash flow growth between now and 2030, you can see the confidence that we have going through that.
Of course, from now to then, we will continue to look at the right opportunities to be able to both hopefully discover resources, to acquire the right resources, all within the capital discipline that we have, outlined, which is the $22 billion to $25 billion over the next two years. I think that’s all I wanted to cover. Maybe thank you for to the questions, Alastair. Maybe, Luke, we can go to the next one, please.
Operator: Our next caller is Irene Himona from Societe Generale.
Irene Himona: Thank you very much. My first question is really one of clarification, where you indicated that, with your forthcoming annual ESG event next month, you intend to cover the energy transition strategy. At last year’s CMD, obviously, you retired all the many operational targets relating to that transition. We kind of lost visibility on what the path looks like. Can we expect you will restore that visibility at this ESG Day, please, and will present the new sort of longer-term transition strategy? And then my second question, a quick one on Q4 cash flows, very, very strong EBITDA and then you had $1 billion charge for derivatives and a larger $1.6 billion charge for other. I think that may refer to these biofuels’ certificates, but can you perhaps remind to see how that works? And is there any guidance you can give us directionally for that going forward? Thank you.
Wael Sawan: I’d love to have taken the second one. I will leave that to you, Sinead, in a moment. Let me maybe, I’m going to cover your first one, where if you allow me just a moment to reframe it. What we will be announcing in March is, in essence, the second leg of what we announced in Capital Markets Day 2023 in June. It’s one strategy. We focused a lot more on the more value side of it in June, and we will focus a bit more on the, with less emissions when it comes to March. The retirement of a number of targets was not to create lack of transparency. But really was an intent as we look to transform Shell into the company we want it to be to focus on the key targets that matter, both the financial targets as well as the carbon targets that you will have seen when we announce them in Capital Markets Day.
And so, what you should expect coming in March is real clarity on what are the areas that we will continue to go forward with. Not a whole bunch of new targets and that is not the intent here. But the intent is to get clear on where we see value opportunities, back to the question that was asked earlier around where we see, I think it was by Alastair, opportunities for investment, for our low carbon spend, of which we invested $5.6 billion last year. We want to be very clear on where we see those value pools emerging, where we have particular strength to be able to compete, where we see customer demand evolving in a positive way, and where do we see regulatory support that enables the overall investment to create the value that our shareholders expect.
So, expect more of that, rather than a whole set of new targets. In our annual reports, you will always be updated on the progress that we are making towards the ambitions that we have set for ourselves. Sinead.
Sinead Gorman: So, basically, what you’re asking is in terms of the cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, that’s really where the question is going. What’s unusual? So, when you look at it, the way I always try and separate it out is what is Q4 specific and what is simply not so that you can see the both coming through. When I look at it in terms of what is fourth quarter specific in terms of excluding working capital, it really comes down to just a number of things. It’s really about timing. So, this is around the German emission certificates that come through and the U.S. biofuels, and program that we’re part of. Those two things happen every Q4, and you see them coming through. That combined with the extra tax that we pay, pure and simple, in Q4, it’s phasing of a tax payment.
And, of course, given how much profit we made, we had extra taxes that came through. Those three things together actually come to about 1.5 billion. So, you see that hit coming through in Q4, which is unusual to it. Then in terms of things that are not Q4 specific, what I would sort of direct your attention to is it’s really related to price moves. There’s twofold. One is cost, so the cost of supply adjustment. It’s really just crude prices going down, and the second one is derivatives as you rightly pointed out, and that’s around about 1.1 billion. So those combined are just over 2 billion. So, going back to that, you saw a 1.5 billion that is Q4 specific. It’s really around timing, and the second bit is really, price related. So, I hope that gets clarity.
Operator: Our next caller is Peter Lo from Redburn Atlantic.
Peter Low: I had a question on disposals. You announced Nigeria just this month that you’ve been linked with several other potential divestments and press and you, yourself, have said you’re looking to, kind of exit your Singapore chemical refining asset. Can you perhaps sort of date on how that program is progressing, and perhaps how large disposal proceeds could be kind of this year and in the coming years? And then the second question was on inflation. In your kind of cost reduction slides, you say that, actually, kind of inflation has contributed to an increase in costs in 2023. I was just interested where in the business that’s coming through and sort of what level of inflation you’re currently seeing planning for?
