Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIGI) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

On the property side, the reason I think it is important to separate them out, property is different, and we call them loss trend, and we haven’t assumed trend for our full year expectation for property on the non-cat side. But ultimately, what drives the variability is it’s really what’s the actual change in frequency and/or severity? So, we had an assumed loss trend or an assumed change in frequency and severity that would equate to 7% in the beginning of the year with 3 months in the books, we’re seeing largely severities coming better than expected. But it’s too early to assume that, that will continue. To the extent it does, you’ll see that come through in results relatively quickly, almost immediately. And I think where – that’s how you want to think about it.

We’re generating significant rate on the commercial property line plus additional exposure. And to the extent that severity trends come in better than we anticipated, you’ll see that come through on reported results.

Derek Han: Got it. That’s really helpful. And then my second question, you obviously had a nice core loss ratio improvement of 260 bps. You called out that non-cats were about three points lower this quarter. I think last year, 1Q 2022, it was about 2.6 points higher. Is this just a function of normalization for the quarter that led to the improvement? Or are you making kind of – as you constantly do like underwriting mix changes or claim benefits where you’re benefiting from those kinds of changes that you’re making on the underwriting side?

John Marchioni: Yes. I think it kind of ties back to the first question there, which is, so the non-cat property better than expected and better than prior year is the primary driver in the underlying loss ratio that you’re talking about here. But at this point, I would equate it to all of those factors. There is inherent variability, and we can never lose sight of that. But we’ve also – if you look at what we did in 2022, recognizing these trends were emerging, the pricing increases accelerated throughout the year. We’ve picked up exposure, that’s earning its way in. And we’ve always had a very disciplined approach to underwriting and risk selection on the property line. That’s also contributing. I’m not going to attempt to subsegment that year-over-year improvement into those different areas, variability versus underwriting and pricing, but they’re all contributing to it.

Derek Han: Okay. And then last quick question on personal lines. New business was up $16.7 million. That’s up quarter-over-quarter and significantly year-over-year. Is that just easy comps? I’m just surprised by how much new business is growing, given the struggles or pressures in personal lines?

John Marchioni: Yes. The prior year comparison quarter was low, that was quite a low quarter from a production perspective. But I think this is us starting to hit our stride in terms of the market repositioning that we’ve been working on. But again, I think rate needs to start to earn its way in and it will start to earn its way in. But that’s – that was the two big drivers, tougher prior year comparison from the first quarter of 2022, but also starting to realize the success of repositioning into the mass affluent market.

Derek Han: Okay, thank you very much.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Matt Carletti with JMP Securities. Your line is now open.

Matt Carletti: Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just a model cleanup question is all got left. Mark, I apologize if I missed it early on. I was hoping you could break out the $35 million or so of cat losses in the Standard Commercial segment by line?