Savers Value Village, Inc. (NYSE:SVV) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jay Stasz: Yes, sure, Randy, thanks for the question. In terms of the composition of the comp on the annual basis, and it’s a little bit of a tale between the two countries, and it reflects what we’ve seen trends. So, in the U.S., I would say that comp would be two-third transactions, and then probably one-third a bit of a lift on average basket. And in Canada, it would be primarily driven by transactions, with essentially a flat average basket. We do expect that we’ll have some modest price increases over the next year. In Canada, what we see is that that is pretty much offset with the decrease in UPT. In the U.S., though we are seeing some upsize in that, and that the average basket is climbing. So, that’s kind of how we model that for ’24.

And then in terms of your question on this year’s guide and long-term, we’ve talked about being appropriately conservative with our comp guidance. We think that’s the right position to take, especially now in this current environment, right, where there is some economic uncertainty. So, we think about the top end of that range at three, really a couple things. I mean, again, we think that’s appropriately conservative. We think, also, that sets up the expense structure underlying that comp guide. So, that if the demand does pick up, we’re in great position to capitalize that, and get some leverage on our expenses. When I think about longer-term guidance, I think maintaining this level is appropriate, a two to three range would make sense going forward.

And talking about our long-term algorithm, right, if we think about long-term, really that long-term algorithm is combined of our expectation of comp, and then our unit growth. And as Jubran has talked about, we are starting to ramp our new store growth appropriately. We’ve got 22 this year. We’re planning to do, say, 25 next year, and then 25-plus in the years beyond that. So, we feel very good with that. And with the two to three comp, and that type of unit growth, we definitely build right into long-term [algo] (ph), so we feel very comfortable with that.

Randy Konik: Very helpful, thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Your next question is from Brooke Roach from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.

Brooke Roach: Thank you. Good afternoon. My question is for Mark. I was hoping you could discuss the traffic-driving initiatives that you have in 2024, including marketing and other customer-facing initiatives, such as loyalty, what are seeing in terms of new customer acquisition today, and what are you expecting for the year?

Mark Walsh: Hey, Brooke, thanks for the question. From a loyalty perspective, we couldn’t be more proud of the team and how we’re executing new member sign-ups. 2023 was really a great year in terms of our growth of our loyalty platform growing over 10% in North America, which really strikes to the heart of the team members in the stores converting non-members into members. And it’s more the same there; I mean we are staying focused on that initiative. Jubran, Michael Tudino, and Nicole McPherson, when they’re talking to their store leadership, that is a — that is a big priority for us as we think about facing off to the consumers that are coming into our environment, so, more of the same in 2024 when it comes to the loyalty member, and the growth of that particular metric.

In terms of connecting with our member base, the influencer programs that we put in place are working. We’ve got great interaction with our customer base. And I’m sure you recall we’ve done a lot of surveying to understand what motivates the thrifter to come into the environment, and what keeps them coming into Savers. And it’s about authenticity. We’re very authentic in terms of how we talk to our thrifters. And I think that connection keeps our attrition rates at very, very low level. So, when we look at our top cohorts, we have best-in-class attrition rates, being in the low single-digit. So, we’re very pleased with both the member sign-ups, and our continued interaction with our loyalty members. And we believe that that is the status quo for 2024, continuing to move on the positive momentum we’ve already created in 2023.

Brooke Roach: Thanks, Mark. And maybe one for Jay, in response to Randy’s question, you mentioned that if demand does pick up, you could get some leverage on your expenses this year. Can you elaborate on what the expense leverage point is for this year and what an additional point of comp might mean for the bottom line? Does that leverage point change as you move through 2024 and into 2025, as you get the first few tranches of new stores through the system, and you no longer see the same level of gross margin pressure from some of those new store openings?