Markets

Insider Trading

Hedge Funds

Retirement

Opinion

SAP SE (SAP): Among the Best Cloud Stocks to Buy According to Short Sellers

We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Cloud Stocks To Buy According to Short Sellers. In this article, we are going to take a look at where SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) stands against the other cloud stocks.

The cloud computing market is one of the fastest growing in the technology industry as the ubiquity of the internet allows business to digitally outsource their functions to reduce investment costs and access specialized services. Estimates show that the cloud computing market was worth $480 billion in 2022, and despite its heft, it is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% to be worth a whopping $2.2 trillion by the end of 2032. The three segments of the cloud computing industry are infrastructure as a service (IaaS), software as a service (SaaS), and platform as a service (PaaS).

READ ALSO 13 Best Tech Stocks to Buy According to Short Sellers and 8 Best EV Stocks According to Short Seller Sentiment

This market, like other mega technology industries, is dominated by mega cap technology companies. As per research from Gartner, the global IaaS market is dominated by five services as of 2023 end. These are AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, Aliyun, and Huawei Cloud. Their market shares are 39%, 23%, 8.2%, 7.9%, and 4.3%, respectively, with all other firms commanding 17.6% of the total market. In terms of revenue, AWS raked in an impressive $54.6 billion in revenue, while the others brought in $32.1 billion, $11.4 billion, $11.1 billion, and $5.9 billion, respectively. AWS’ dominance in the industry is clear as it brought in more than twice the revenue of all other firms that follow Huawei since their cumulative revenue was $24.6 billion.

Apart from the biggest players, whose valuation metrics are different due to their mature and diverse business models, valuing cloud computing stocks is different from how you’d value other companies. For instance, most firms are valued through their price to earnings (P/E) ratio. This measures the premium that investors are willing to pay for a firm’s earnings, but the ratio becomes useless when we try it to value cloud computing stocks. This is because of the industry’s obsession with growth, and its need for high margins, meaning that cloud cloud computing stocks, and particularly SaaS stocks, reinvest large portions of their revenue back into growth.

So much so that one of the most troubled SaaS companies these days has been aggressively investing in growth despite its shares being down 39.65% year to date. This firm ranks 6th on our list of Ray Dalio’s Top 10 Growth Stock Picks with 30+% Revenue Growth, with its second quarter product revenue of $868.8 million marking a 28.9% annual growth. However, this growth clearly hasn’t been enough, as the stock tumbled by 14.7% after the latest earnings report. During the same period, this firm’s marketing and research and development expenses sat at $838.2 million, or 96% of its revenue. This is a classic illustration of the cloud computing industry, and one that requires different valuation metrics than the P/E ratio as these firms are not profitable most of the time.

The two key metrics for valuing SaaS stocks in particular are the EV/Revenue and the Rule of 40. A firm’s enterprise value is its market value plus net debt, and when divided by revenue, the resulting ratio measures the premium that a buyer would be willing to pay for a firm over its ability to generate revenue. The Rule of 40 is simpler, as it simply states that the sum of a SaaS firm’s revenue growth rate and profit margin should exceed 40. While this rule is simply a benchmark and not all inclusive of SaaS performance, it does have some key implications. For instance, it implies that if a firm is growing its revenue at or faster than 40%, then it can be unprofitable.

On the flip side, if growth slows down, to say 10%, then it must be highly profitable with margins of at least 30% to show that the lower growth is accompanied by the benefits of the beefy margins that software companies enjoy. McKinsey also substitutes the profit margin with the free cash flow (FCF) margin to further broaden this rule’s scope. A firm’s FCF simply eliminates the impact of interest, taxes, and capital expenditure on the net income. As per its analysis, the top Rule of 40 SaaS companies are investor favorites. This is because McKinsey’s data shows that in a sample size of 100 SaaS companies, those with the 25 highest Rule of 40 scores had median EV/Revenue multiples of 22. This was nearly 22x the overall sample’s 11x, and nearly 3x the bottom 25 firms’ median EV/Revenue multiples of 8. In other words, investors are typically willing to pay a higher premium over sales for SaaS firms that have either robust revenue growth, superior cost control, or a mix of both.

Finally, while EV/Revenue and Rule of 40 measure the financial validity and stature of these firms, their stock performance is also tightly linked to the economy and monetary policy. A low interest regime means that businesses can spend more money, which is beneficial for SaaS and cloud computing firms, both. On Wall Street, August has marked a paradigm shift after Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that his organization was satisfied with macroeconomic indicators to cut interest rates. This has also impacted valuations, as the median EV/Sales ratio for the top companies, i.e. Rule of 40 firms with a growth rate higher than 30%, sat at 13.3x as of the latest market close. This is the second highest for the year, with the last high being in May when it sat at 16.3x. This was before a brief rate gloom took over Wall Street in July which saw the flagship S&P index lose 8.5% between mid July and early August.

Any discussion of SaaS stocks would be incomplete without a brief discussion of the implications of artificial intelligence. According to hedge fund Coatue Management, SaaS valuations as measured by forward sales are at a historic low right now through a median of 5.5x. This comes with lower growth expectations, as just 1% of SaaS firms are now seeing a median forward growth estimate of 30%+. As for the business model, SaaS firms are seeing a shift from a traditional seat based model that drove revenue from the number of users that were using the services to a consumption driven model. Their lower growth expectations are also somewhat driven by the belief that AI could allow companies to cost effectively create their own code and thereby reduce their reliance on SaaS and cloud computing providers.

Our Methodology

To make our list of the best cloud stocks to buy according to short sellers, we ranked the holdings of First Trust’s cloud ETF by the percentage of shares outstanding that were sold short. Then, the stocks with the lowest percentage were selected.

We also mentioned the number of hedge funds that had bought these stocks during the same filing period. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).

A data centre room with cloud technology, illustrating the enterprise application software services.

SAP SE (NYSE:SAP)

Number of Hedge Fund Investors  in Q2 2024: 31

Short Interest as % of  Shares Outstanding: 0.15%

SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) is one of the biggest enterprise software providers in the world, with its product use cases ranging from resource management to financial management, human resources, and business collaboration. This provides it with a wide moat in the industry, as evidenced by its 24% market share of the ERP market according to Gartner. This makes SAP SE (NYSE:SAP)  the biggest player in its industry by market share, and its dominance has translated into resilience in an overall slow time for the cloud industry. As evidenced by SAP SE (NYSE:SAP)’s second quarter results, its cloud backlog grew by 28% annually while its ERP revenue jumped by 33%. The firm’s shares have responded accordingly, and are up by 46% year to date. Within its broader cloud portfolio, SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) is currently making the shift from providing perpetual licenses to a subscription, SaaS based model. This spreads out its customer spending over a longer time period, and could lead the firm to post consistent revenue growth in the future. It could also help SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) grow its market share as customers try out services initially, and add recurring revenue to the business.

When asked during the Q2 2024 earnings call about the reasons behind it being immune to macroeconomic headwinds, here’s how SAP SE (NYSE:SAP)’s management replied:

“I mean, Mark, indeed, I mean, we have seen a fantastic performance in half year 1, and now entering half year 2, we see very healthy pipeline. And pipeline means sales pipeline but also I see a very strong innovation pipeline.

Now when you sit together with our product owners and see what we are delivering on GenAI use cases and the customers who are sharing their feedback early on, it’s pretty exciting. I mean they see a ton of value, and you have seen now in Q2 already the first impact of Business AI on our numbers.

And then second, what I also see clearly working now is the best of suite. I mean 4 years back, we were rightfully criticized for having a bunch of best-of-breed solutions. But when you want to have a high-quality AI, when you want to steer your business end to end, when you want to connect your commerce and your omnichannel with supply chain and when you want to connect your procurement with the warehousing, I mean, that all comes together on BTP.

And I would say we are also just at the beginning. I mean please don’t forget, when customers are using their ECC solution, so their on-premise monolithic ERP solution today, that doesn’t mean that they use all the modules in the past. And now with our land-and-expand strategy, we have really, I mean, a motion that customers are really landing. And then they get that they have to connect the different parts of their company and the different parts of the supply chain. And that’s why we also stay confident for the second half of the year.”

Overall SAP ranks 1st on our list of the best cloud stocks to buy according to short sellers. While we acknowledge the potential of SAP as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than SAP but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.

READ NEXT: $30 Trillion Opportunity: 15 Best Humanoid Robot Stocks to Buy According to Morgan Stanley and Jim Cramer Says NVIDIA ‘Has Become A Wasteland’.

Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.

AI Fire Sale: Insider Monkey’s #1 AI Stock Pick Is On A Steep Discount

Artificial intelligence is the greatest investment opportunity of our lifetime. The time to invest in groundbreaking AI is now, and this stock is a steal!

The whispers are turning into roars.

Artificial intelligence isn’t science fiction anymore.

It’s the revolution reshaping every industry on the planet.

From driverless cars to medical breakthroughs, AI is on the cusp of a global explosion, and savvy investors stand to reap the rewards.

Here’s why this is the prime moment to jump on the AI bandwagon:

Exponential Growth on the Horizon: Forget linear growth – AI is poised for a hockey stick trajectory.

Imagine every sector, from healthcare to finance, infused with superhuman intelligence.

We’re talking disease prediction, hyper-personalized marketing, and automated logistics that streamline everything.

This isn’t a maybe – it’s an inevitability.

Early investors will be the ones positioned to ride the wave of this technological tsunami.

Ground Floor Opportunity: Remember the early days of the internet?

Those who saw the potential of tech giants back then are sitting pretty today.

AI is at a similar inflection point.

We’re not talking about established players – we’re talking about nimble startups with groundbreaking ideas and the potential to become the next Google or Amazon.

This is your chance to get in before the rockets take off!

Disruption is the New Name of the Game: Let’s face it, complacency breeds stagnation.

AI is the ultimate disruptor, and it’s shaking the foundations of traditional industries.

The companies that embrace AI will thrive, while the dinosaurs clinging to outdated methods will be left in the dust.

As an investor, you want to be on the side of the winners, and AI is the winning ticket.

The Talent Pool is Overflowing: The world’s brightest minds are flocking to AI.

From computer scientists to mathematicians, the next generation of innovators is pouring its energy into this field.

This influx of talent guarantees a constant stream of groundbreaking ideas and rapid advancements.

By investing in AI, you’re essentially backing the future.

The future is powered by artificial intelligence, and the time to invest is NOW.

Don’t be a spectator in this technological revolution.

Dive into the AI gold rush and watch your portfolio soar alongside the brightest minds of our generation.

This isn’t just about making money – it’s about being part of the future.

So, buckle up and get ready for the ride of your investment life!

Act Now and Unlock a Potential 10,000% Return: This AI Stock is a Diamond in the Rough (But Our Help is Key!)

The AI revolution is upon us, and savvy investors stand to make a fortune.

But with so many choices, how do you find the hidden gem – the company poised for explosive growth?

That’s where our expertise comes in.

We’ve got the answer, but there’s a twist…

Imagine an AI company so groundbreaking, so far ahead of the curve, that even if its stock price quadrupled today, it would still be considered ridiculously cheap.

That’s the potential you’re looking at. This isn’t just about a decent return – we’re talking about a 10,000% gain over the next decade!

Our research team has identified a hidden gem – an AI company with cutting-edge technology, massive potential, and a current stock price that screams opportunity.

This company boasts the most advanced technology in the AI sector, putting them leagues ahead of competitors.

It’s like having a race car on a go-kart track.

They have a strong possibility of cornering entire markets, becoming the undisputed leader in their field.

Here’s the catch (it’s a good one): To uncover this sleeping giant, you’ll need our exclusive intel.

We want to make sure none of our valued readers miss out on this groundbreaking opportunity!

That’s why we’re slashing the price of our Premium Readership Newsletter by a whopping 70%.

For a ridiculously low price of just $29, you can unlock a year’s worth of in-depth investment research and exclusive insights – that’s less than a single restaurant meal!

Here’s why this is a deal you can’t afford to pass up:

• Access to our Detailed Report on this Game-Changing AI Stock: Our in-depth report dives deep into our #1 AI stock’s groundbreaking technology and massive growth potential.

• 11 New Issues of Our Premium Readership Newsletter: You will also receive 11 new issues and at least one new stock pick per month from our monthly newsletter’s portfolio over the next 12 months. These stocks are handpicked by our research director, Dr. Inan Dogan.

• One free upcoming issue of our 70+ page Quarterly Newsletter: A value of $149

• Bonus Reports: Premium access to members-only fund manager video interviews

• Ad-Free Browsing: Enjoy a year of investment research free from distracting banner and pop-up ads, allowing you to focus on uncovering the next big opportunity.

• 30-Day Money-Back Guarantee:  If you’re not absolutely satisfied with our service, we’ll provide a full refund within 30 days, no questions asked.

 

Space is Limited! Only 1000 spots are available for this exclusive offer. Don’t let this chance slip away – subscribe to our Premium Readership Newsletter today and unlock the potential for a life-changing investment.

Here’s what to do next:

1. Head over to our website and subscribe to our Premium Readership Newsletter for just $29.

2. Enjoy a year of ad-free browsing, exclusive access to our in-depth report on the revolutionary AI company, and the upcoming issues of our Premium Readership Newsletter over the next 12 months.

3. Sit back, relax, and know that you’re backed by our ironclad 30-day money-back guarantee.

Don’t miss out on this incredible opportunity! Subscribe now and take control of your AI investment future!


No worries about auto-renewals! Our 30-Day Money-Back Guarantee applies whether you’re joining us for the first time or renewing your subscription a year later!

A New Dawn is Coming to U.S. Stocks

I work for one of the largest independent financial publishers in the world – representing over 1 million people in 148 countries.

We’re independently funding today’s broadcast to address something on the mind of every investor in America right now…

Should I put my money in Artificial Intelligence?

Here to answer that for us… and give away his No. 1 free AI recommendation… is 50-year Wall Street titan, Marc Chaikin.

Marc’s been a trader, stockbroker, and analyst. He was the head of the options department at a major brokerage firm and is a sought-after expert for CNBC, Fox Business, Barron’s, and Yahoo! Finance…

But what Marc’s most known for is his award-winning stock-rating system. Which determines whether a stock could shoot sky-high in the next three to six months… or come crashing down.

That’s why Marc’s work appears in every Bloomberg and Reuters terminal on the planet…

And is still used by hundreds of banks, hedge funds, and brokerages to track the billions of dollars flowing in and out of stocks each day.

He’s used this system to survive nine bear markets… create three new indices for the Nasdaq… and even predict the brutal bear market of 2022, 90 days in advance.

Click to continue reading…