Ryder System, Inc. (NYSE:R) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Todd Fowler: Yes. You know Robert, that was actually kind of my thought in the question that basically, it sounds like by the second half you’re kind of in a more normalized range with both UVS and rental. And so as we think about the exit rate and the earnings power in the fourth quarter going into ’24 at this point, it should be a pretty decent run rate and kind of more of a normalized cadence as we exit the year.

Robert Sanchez: I think that’s a fair statement, yes.

Todd Fowler: Okay good. And just if I could, one last one. As we think about the free cash flow profile, you know expecting to do $200 million of free cash this year, is there a reason to think going forward with kind of your plans for more normalized fleet growth that you should remain to be free cash positive on an annual basis throughout a cycle? Is there a reason why that could shift and you’d have a big step-up in free cash usage?

Robert Sanchez: Yes, I think that’s fair. The only caveat I’d give you is due to the OEM delivery delays, you could have a year, maybe it’s ’24 or ’25, but there’s a catch-up of a bunch of units that need to be in service. That would put some pressure on free cash flow, you could go negative. But you’re right. I mean as we look at the model, the way it’s operating now, the way it’s delivering, not only the earnings and free cash flow, you are highly likely to be positive in most years, right. And you might have a year for an anomaly that you’d go €“ it could go negative. Based on the strategy I think we have today, this balanced growth strategy, that’s what we’re shooting for.

Todd Fowler: Got it, yes. You need to average out the two years. So if there was a push into one year, you’d have that benefit in the other year. So okay, that’s all very helpful. Thanks for the time this morning. Yep, thanks.

Robert Sanchez: Okay. Thank you, Todd.

Operator: And our next question is going to come from Justin Long from Stephens. Please go ahead.

Justin Long: Thanks. It sounds like you have a good amount of visibility towards the growth in your lease fleet this year. You know the next year is essentially locked in the backlog. I was curious if you could comment on the visibility you have in growth for SCS and dedicated this year? And then on rental, anything you can share on the monthly trends that you saw in the fourth quarter and maybe what you’ve seen in January as well. It’s just been a bit surprising to see utilization hold up so well in a freight market that’s been fairly weak.

Robert Sanchez: Yes. Let me hand it over first to Steve to give you the color around supply chain, and then I’ll give it to Tom to give you some rental. Steve?

Steve Sensing: Yes. Thanks Robert. Justin here. As I said before, the pipeline remains very healthy. You know we expect full year to be in the target range for SCS. So that’s low double digit for SCS and high single for Dedicated as well. So again, everything remains positive.

Robert Sanchez: I would also add, I guess that about 40% of that business is already contracted, right? Because of the lead times to get the new accounts ramped up, so you could say 40% of its already signed. The rest it will come as we sell and implement throughout the year. Tom, do you want to give us some color on rental and what we saw in the fourth quarter, what we’re seeing now in January and February?