Ryanair Holdings plc (NASDAQ:RYAAY) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Savanthi Syth: Hey, good morning. Just first question for me on the GDS side of things, you’ve been adding more kind of corporate relationships there. I was wondering if you can kind of give an update on where you – there’s a lot more opportunity there. And if you’re seeing any an improvement in the kind of the mix of business travel or just any kind of color on how business is recovering. And just Secondly, just with the aircraft delivery delays, is there – are you needing to change? And just given how constrained the environment is? Are you changing anything in the way you kind of load schedules in the way you book up schedules given kind of your historical kind of yield passive load factor active strategy?

Michael O’Leary: Okay, Eddy, maybe you take the GDS point, and then I’ll do the aircraft deliveries and loading schedules.

Eddie Wilson: Yes. I think the GDSs came back, but primarily driven by business travelers. Like as we’ve grown our base network in particular. Particularly post COVID where corporates became much more price sensitive that we weren’t available on a lot of the platforms, but we’ve done a recent deal with Concur, which was a SaaS-based product for people to – for corporates to manage their expense management. And we fit naturally into that. And that will go live, I think, probably from when we signed the deal, it will go live and the APIs now will be working from early April. So it’s just another channel. GDS is growing, not spectacularly. People still go for the naturally gravitated towards our low spares. You look at the recent OTAs that have come through, you can argue they’re a channel, one of them as a channel for our dose who want to have a package channel not material in what we do, but we will continue to develop those channels.

But it’s not necessarily going to move to trial. But the one that I really, I suppose I’m excited about is Concur because that will get those small and medium-sized businesses and Ryanair will be presented. And obviously, we’ll have the lowest fares.

Michael O’Leary: And I think it’s fair to say we’re also – I mean, I wouldn’t underplay never what underplayed the significance of the OTA deals last week we loveholidays and with Kiwi this morning. I mean these deals now give them direct access into Ryanair’s inventory. They are favorable to moving a significant volume of seat and the fact that they are now doing that without screen scraping, but giving their customers the Ryanair airfares and the Ryanair – the real Ryanair ancillary prices, I think, could result in a significant boost in their volumes or that volume of bookings. Turning to aircraft delivery delays is very frustrating. We have been very slow to launch the summer 2024 schedule. I think it’s fair to say, typically at Christmas, we would have about 85% of the summer schedule launch.

This demonstrates that we won about 75% of it launch. We have some – and most of that is uncertainty over aircraft. There is still some – we are still negotiating with some airports as well. Eddie and Jason, their team made a major breakthrough last weekend with a new base in Northern Italy where the [indiscernible] region or the test region scrap the municipal attack, which is the first time one of the big Italian regions as strap the municipal tax 650 per departing passenger. These are major advances on behalf of consumers and in terms of our comp. So it’s fair to say that summer ‘24 or schedule – our summer schedule launch has been delayed. We are still at this point in time – we have only launched with the core summer, we’re also late with the some of the summer schedules that we would have ideally have launched in April and May, don’t get launched until June and July because of the Boeing delivery delays.

We were supposed to have 57 aircraft from Boeing at the end of April. We will be lucky to get 50 aircraft by the end of June. And that in itself means a lot of the summer business that we would want to do in May and June has been delayed. And even today, we are still holding back about 15 aircraft. We have only – what’s on sale at the moment is about 35 of the 50 aircraft that we have from Boeing. We need more certainty and more confidence that Boeing will deliver those aircraft to us. And there are still a number of announcements to be made on some new routes and maybe one or two bases. We’re in the final part of negotiation. So – and overall, Savi, to answer your question, the aircraft delivery delays in delaying the summer schedule, it is constraining our growth.

I mean, it would add another 1 million or 2 million passengers, and we were able to launch these summer routes in May and June as opposed to launching them only at the end of June or in July. That’s still enough to hit the summer peak, but it is very frustrating, which is why I think the next year instead of 205 million passengers, we’ll probably be running around 200 million will be the number for the full year. Next question please.

Savanthi Syth: Okay, thank you.

Michael O’Leary: Thanks, Savi.

Operator: Thank you. The next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Duane Pfennigwerth: Good morning. Just a couple of quick ones. On the ETS credits that are expiring, can you just help us think about the magnitude of that relative to the €450 million in fuel savings F ‘25 over F ‘24. In other words, that €450 million, how – what should we subtract from that for the sort of change in the ETS credit recognition?

Thomas Fowler: Yes, Duane, it’s Thomas here. So, we will lose about 20% of the free allowances during next year. So, like we had about just under €4 million free allowances, so about 20% below line in FY ‘24.

Michael O’Leary: What’s that in financial terms over the years?

Thomas Fowler: It’s about €65 a ton today, so it’s probably about €50 million, €60 million.

Michael O’Leary: So the fuel hedging savings are about €450 million and the ETS depending on cost of about €60 million, €70 million. Is it?

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