Ryanair Holdings plc (NASDAQ:RYAAY) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Neil Sorahan: We’ll just add that if there was a delay and I don’t anticipate because as Michael said, they’re on-track to hopefully deliver the first seven out of ten of the lead customers next year. But, if there was a delay, we’d sell less of the NGs. We’ve penciled in 150 NGs due to exit the fleet as the 10s come in. So, we just manage that within the business, but with every expectation that we’ll be getting the 10s in an early 2027.

Alex Patterson: Thank you.

Michael O’Leary: Thanks, Alex. Next question, please.

Operator: The next question comes from Gerald Khoo from Liberum. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Gerald Khoo: Good morning, everyone. Two for me, if I can. You’ve talked about 90% of summer 2024, capacity being on sale. I was just wondering why is it 90% are you holding some back for potential Boeing delays or is there another reason for that? And secondly, there’s a big gap between the increase in average fares and the increase in ancillary revenue per passenger. I was wondering why you’re taking so much of the current strength in demand in fares rather than ancillary? Thanks.

Michael O’Leary: Okay. The summer 24, Jason, you might have added some comments on this, like we’re at 20%. That’s about normal time of the year. In fact, it’s more normal. We don’t need about 80% of summer 24%. Top of things happen there, but we’re not sure about the last of the Boeing 10 aircrafts delivery. Things are still airport negotiations ongoing about new basis, new routes and we’re still paying off. So we haven’t yet finalized those allocations of the existing fleet. So, that’s 90% already I’ll say that’s higher than it would have been in previous year. Is there a big gap between average fares than ancillary. Yes. We’re priced active load factor active, what’s driving the strong growth in average fares is the strong upward pricing being, that’s being delivered by our competitors across Europe in a constrained market.

When again, I would point Lufthansa, maybe Germany is only recovered to 80% of the pre-COVID compared to others. If the two are not the same ancillary, we will tend to get over [balanced] (ph) well advanced ancillary revenue business. It does tend to clip up a couple of percentage points ahead of traffic growth. It’s up 3% per passenger in the half year, but it is something to far less pricing fluctuation or pricing volatility than underlying airfare. In a crisis or a downturn, average airfare like that I expect would fall in a capacity constrained consolidated market like Europe I think the rest of the year underlying air fares will rise but I’m pleased we’ll continue to turn them along doing what they do and it’s a much more reliable source of income, as well as we use the average fares to make sure that we hit the low prices and fill all our flights.

Jason, anything you want to cover on 90%, summer 24 sale?

Jason McGuinness : No, like you covered off there, 90% we’re actually ahead of where we would have been previously. So more capacity percentage wise on sales for ‘24 than we would have previously. And like there’s two other factors at play. There’s the potential for two or three new basis next year, but that will depend on how the negotiation progress over the next number of weeks. And likewise, where we feel there’s unjustified cost increases into 2024, we’re keeping some of that capacity off sale while we negotiate for airport. So, we will not be accepting unjustified airport cost increases into next year. So, that covers off the 10%, Gerald.

Gerald Khoo: Thanks very much.

Michael O’Leary: Okay. Thanks, Gerald. Next question, please.

Operator: The next question comes from Conor Dwyer from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, Conor. Your line is now open.

Michael O’Leary: Hi.

Conor Dwyer: Thanks very much. Hi, guys. So, the first question is regarding the excess cash and how best to give it to shareholders. So, before you expressed the preference for the special dividends, but this morning seems to be a bit more of a balance between these and buybacks. So, I’m just wondering if that is just because the decision has been made officially yet or if cheap valuation is making a buyback a bit more attractive now? And the second question is just around pricing growth, it’s a very strong through this period and sounds as though it’s benefiting from the headroom you’ve built up over the last few years. So, I’m just thinking, do you think that can extend beyond this period and that you can probably pace market fair growth over the next few years because you’re already talking about an overall market environment to a fare growth should be pretty, pretty attractive? Thanks.

Michael O’Leary: I mean, I think you’re asking on the pricing growth over the next few years, I think we are the Board, we had a meeting last week. I think we are slightly changing dynamic. I had expected we’d be looking to return surplus cash through, special dividends for the next year or two. We had surplus cash. But the way our PE has de-rated historically, we’ve been on a 15 times PE most, but we’re now down under 10%, at 8% or 9%. I think, I look across the states as I’ve witnessed at 15 times PE, but with less profit, higher cost, less growth but it is what it is. But I think if, if, our multiple continues to be as insipid as it is or has to have derated over the last number of over the last 12 months. I think it’s incumbent on the Board to reassess that we returned cash to fair cash by dividends or share buybacks.

And I would be very strongly in favor, restarting share buyback if our PE multiple continues in single digits. I think we’re vastly undervalued for the performance we’re delivering in a market in Europe is consolidating and maybe near pricing for the next few years.

Neil Sorahan: Yes. Well, I think in fairness, Jason and Eddie covered it fairly well recently, but capacity is going to be the key driver of our pricing for the next couple of years. The market remains constrained, likely to remain constrained for a various number of issues, including the Pratt & Whitney engines, the lack of availability of new orders this side of 2030 and the consolidation play. So look, I mean, nobody knows exactly what’s going to happen, but I think there’s more risk to the upside on the downside as we look out over the next year or two.

Conor Dwyer: Great. Thank you.

Michael O’Leary: Thanks, Conor. Maxine, I think it gets pretty fast. We’ve done an hour in 20 minutes, and I have to go there to a TV issue in 10 minutes. So we do two more questions, please I then going to cut it off.

Operator: That does conclude our Q&A sessions for today. So, I’ll hand back over to Michael for any closing remarks.

Michael O’Leary: Okay. Thank you very much everybody. I think we’ve done an hour and 20 minutes and which is very exhaustive coverage of the results. Thanks to the team for what I think has been a very strong six month performance. Thanks to our customers who continue to support here as we continue to do as far as the path on lower orders and exceptional on time performance in the European market phase which will continue to be challenged by capacity constraints for the next couple of years, consolidation, OEM delivery delays and I think the Pratt & Whitney engine will become a much bigger and more challenging issue for our competitors in the next in summer 2025. And I think we’ve had extensive roadshow, I think about 12 or 14 different teams on the road.