Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:RYAN) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Jeremiah Bickham: Yes. So I’ll take you through the high-level path on the charges and the saves. So you’ll see charges trickle in, in Q1 and Q2 of this year, but they really ramp up in H2. So by the end of this year or let’s call it, end of Q1 ’24 at the latest, we’ll be through more than half of the $65 million charge and then take the remainder through the end of ’24. No savings in ’23, some savings in ’24, which we’ll report on as we go. And then the full $35 million will be realized in fiscal year 2025.

Weston Bloomer: Great. And then my second question is a follow-up around the uplift that you’re seeing in property. Just rough math, it seems like it was around a 200 to 300 basis point positive impact in the 4Q. Is it fair to say that’s roughly the uplift that you’re expecting in 2023 as well? I know you’re not — it could be — it could change or but I’m curious how you’re thinking about that or what’s baked into your guidance?

Jeremiah Bickham: There’s a lot of variables baked into our guidance. And if you’re — I don’t want to imply false precision on any of the math you just threw out. So our guide range for Q4 was 3% to 9%, and we barely beat it at 10.3%. That was mostly attributable to property. As Tim said, the property market is quite hard right now, it could get harder. We expect that to be a net benefit. But in terms of basis points, how much that contributes to the 10% to 13% that — this year, it’s really difficult to calibrate.

Weston Bloomer: Great. And then on the cadence for organic growth throughout the year, is there any way to quantify maybe first half versus second half? Like is the first half of the year going to be in the mid-single-digit range or upper single-digit range or close to the low end of the guidance? I know you said there’s difficult comps in the first half, and we should look at it on a full year basis, but any additional granularity for the 1Q or 2Q would be helpful.

Jeremiah Bickham: You’ve got the key points. The tougher comps are in H1, and then we expect the worst of our headwinds to manifest in H1. So H1, there’s going to be a lot of challenges on an annual basis. We think that we’re going to come through quite well, but there’s a reason that we only guide on an annual basis, the quarters can be — the quarters can be difficult to predict or to read into. So let’s just stay focused on the 2023 number, which we think will ultimately be a really solid year of organic growth.

Operator: The next question is from Tracy Benguigui of Barclays.

Tracy Benguigui: A quick clarification question. You mentioned in the third quarter call that no single product line, including public D&O represents 10% of your overall book and property is multiples ahead of D&O. But then when I think about the proportion of property to the overall E&S market, it’s something like a 1/4 or 1/3, can you clarify the proportion of property placements more broadly to your overall book? And if that’s becoming a larger piece?

Jeremiah Bickham: So Tracy, we’ve actually said publicly that we’re a representative — our portfolio is representative of the broader E&S market and 25% to 30% is the right range.

Tracy Benguigui: Okay. So it was a more narrow view when you previously discussed 10% of a particular product?

Jeremiah Bickham: When we were talking about products on the Q3 call, Tracy, we were giving public D&O as an example of a product and trying to compare that to an entire category of our portfolio in the insurance world overall, right, property and casualty as since our portfolio is representative of the broader market, we were just drawing attention to the difference in scale between our exposure in property versus a single product line like public D&O.