We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Gold Mining Companies to Invest in. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGLD) stands against the other gold mining stocks.
Gold has reached an all-time high, capping a 20-month rally with a 50% increase. Although the selling pressure from the retail investor would have an adverse affect on gold prices, however, this surge is driven by central banks buying record volumes of bullion mainly due to the desire to reduce dependence on US dollar, conflicts in the Middle East, and strong demand from Chinese consumers amid disappointing local equities, property, and currency markets. Furthermore, Chinese political leaders noticed that financial assets of the Russian government including bonds and reserves got confiscated by Western governments after Russia invaded Ukraine. Christopher Mancini, who co-manages Gabelli Gold Fund says “The Chinese central bank saw that happened and said ‘We don’t want that to happen to us.’ It would make sense for them to want to significantly retire their [U.S.] dollar reserves. With gold, they don’t have to worry about being repaid. We know they have been buying a consistent amount of gold every day.”
Bernard Dahdah from Natixis suggests central banks might continue buying gold due to tensions between the US and China, potentially making prices above $2,300 the new norm. The move to gold also reflects a broader trend of nations reducing their reliance on the U.S. dollar, prompted by the dollar’s use as a geopolitical tool against Russia, leading to gold prices reaching an all-time high of $2,480 per ounce on July 17, 2024. In U.S. the Fed is expected to cut the Fed funds rate, but inflation may remain steady, leading to lower real interest rates. This scenario benefits gold as the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold decreases compared to cash and bonds. Additionally, a decline in U.S. real interest rates may weaken the U.S. dollar, making gold, which is globally priced in dollars, more attractive.
Owning gold directly provides a “store of value” but offers limited returns rather than generate substantial gains like equities. However, other than its appeal in its ability to preserve value, many investors view it as a hedge against economic troubles rather than a high-return investment. So an investor otherwise seeking gold as a soaring investment would be disappointed in the longer term as it doesn’t appreciate by much as gold has risen less than 300% in a century with annualized real returns of 1.34%, adjusted for inflation. Therefore investors looking for a more aggressive approach, aim for gold mining stocks that provide leverage to the gold price that yields returns surpassing those of the underlying commodity.
Despite this leverage, the underlying stock valuations will consider future cash flows and market volatility of the gold as well as the consensus price estimates by market participants. Nonetheless, gold miner stocks should be more volatile than gold itself, offering greater returns if the investor’s thesis on rising gold prices is correct.
Regardless of gold prices rising over the last 15 years, gold mining ETFs and major miners (Agnico, Newmont, Barrick) have underperformed compared to physical gold. Although some companies covered in this article have succeeded, the gold mining sector requires careful scrutiny beyond just reserves and production. Like any other investment that is carefully analyzed mining companies need to be analysed based on management, capital allocation, and geopolitical risk. It is also because of these factors that gold mining companies are unable to reach their potential as viable investments.
Methodology
To curate our list of 10 Best Gold Mining Companies to Invest in, we gathered a list of all companies using the holdings of gold miners ETFs. We then further narrowed down on the basis of their upside potential. With this let’s now jump to our list of the 10 Best Gold Mining Companies to Invest in.
At Insider Monkey we are obsessed with the stocks that hedge funds pile into. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A mine entrance, showcasing the precious metals and minerals that this company produces.
Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGLD)
Current Price: $137.88
Upside Potential: 21%
Royal Gold, Inc.(NASDAQ:RGLD), a precious metal streaming company with royalty interests in mines worldwide, experienced a 10% increase in revenue for its gold segment despite a 13% overall revenue decline from the previous year’s record high quarter. This was due to higher gold prices and reduced contributions from certain mines like Mount Milligan and Cortez. The company achieved its best quarterly operating cash flow of $138 million, a 27% increase, thanks to payments from Mount Milligan and capitalized interest from loan repayments. The stock has risen by 15.65% YTD and 15.4% in the past month, supported by analysts’ projections of a 28.1% EPS increase in 2024 and a 25.1% revenue rise in 2025. New ventures at Mara Rosa in Brazil and Cote Gold in Ontario, along with the Goldrush mine at Cortez, are expected to boost production. Analysts have set a price target of $152, a 16.37% potential increase from its current price of $130.62. With 31 hedge fund holders owning stakes worth $321 million, the company reported a 2.6% increase in Q2 gold production and higher realized gold prices. Investors are anticipating further details in August 2024.
Royal Gold Inc (NASDAQ:RGLD) talked in detail about its 2024 guidance in its latest earnings call:
“Analysts believe Royal Gold is attractively valued based on its Net Asset Value (NAV), a common valuation metric using in the gold streaming industry. The stock is currently trading at around 18 times FY’2024 FCF , well below its average free cash flow multiple of 22. This makes Royal Gold an attractively valued gold mining stock.”
Overall RGLD ranks 4th on our list of the best gold mining stocks to buy. You can visit 10 Best Gold Mining Companies to Invest in to see the other gold mining stocks that are on hedge funds’ radar. While we acknowledge the potential of RGLD as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than RGLD but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
