We recently published a list of 10 S&P 500 Stocks That Outperformed Bitcoin in 2024. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) stands against other S&P 500 stocks that outperformed bitcoin in 2024.
Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated dramatically since U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration, with the cryptocurrency staying around $100,000 since achieving the milestone in December. Trump’s ascension as the president has fueled more Bitcoin optimism, with many expecting a more favorable regulatory environment for digital assets. After the SEC approved the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF last year, Bitcoin surpassed the $70,000 price milestone set for 2021. The acceptance was largely regarded as a watershed event for the cryptocurrency, increasing its attractiveness to more mainstream investors. This year, Bitcoin’s price has more than doubled. The token is widely projected to see even stronger price movement in 2025, with numerous industry analysts estimating a doubling in value to $200,000.
In an interview with CNBC, James Butterfill, head of research for crypto-focused asset management CoinShares, stated that Bitcoin values in 2025 might range between $80,000 and $150,000. Butterfill stated that in the long run, it would not be “unreasonable” to anticipate Bitcoin to be worth around 25% of gold’s market share, up from roughly 10% presently. Should Butterfill’s $80,000 call be met, it will be due to President Trump’s failure to implement his promised pro-crypto measures.
Hedge Fund Managers’ Stance on Bitcoin
Of course, a few hedge fund managers have joined to claim a piece of the Bitcoin pie as well. ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, for example, remains unwavering in her prediction that Bitcoin will reach $1.5 million by 2030. Known for her ambitious tech projections, the financial expert outlined the scenario at Ark’s Big Ideas 2025 conference, revealing that the chances of attaining this massive sum had actually grown. The investor has proposed three options: a middle-ground of $710,000, a cautious estimate of $300,000, and the bull scenario of $1.5 million.
Given all of this, is Bitcoin a worthwhile investment? Even the most popular cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, have fluctuated in value, the market isn’t as transparent as it is for stocks, transactions are irreversible, and consumer safeguards are low or nonexistent. According to Charles Schwab, as long as Bitcoin is extremely volatile and susceptible to large transaction fees, it appears that it will have little utility as a means of trade or a store of wealth. With that in mind, it is understandable that equities tend to be less volatile than cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.
Our Methodology
For this list, we focused on stocks in the S&P 500 with a price performance greater than that of BTC (92.73%) as of February 17. These stocks are ranked in ascending order according to their 1-year price performance. In addition, we mentioned hedge fund sentiment around each stock to provide further insight into their market standing.
Why do we care about what hedge funds do? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
An aerial view of a luxurious cruise ship, surrounded by the blue horizon.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL)
1-Year Price Performance: 128.50%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 52
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) is a global cruise business that provides cruises under the Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea Cruises brands, among others, covering a variety of itineraries. As of this year, the company operates 68 ships under these brands.
On February 7, Tigress Financial maintained its Buy rating on Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) and raised its 12-month price target to $330, noting the company’s strong Q4 performance as a driver of its bullish view. In the fourth quarter, RCL reported an adjusted EPS of $1.63, above analysts’ forecasts of $1.50. It also reported a 13% rise in revenue to $3.8 billion. The company’s development of its fleet and land-based resort facilities, as well as strong cruise demand, have contributed to revenue and cash flow increases. Looking ahead, it anticipates net yields to climb by 2.5% to 4.5%.
The company’s investments in additional ships and land-based resorts are also intended to boost its share of the vacation travel industry. In that vein, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) recently announced the development of its exclusive destination portfolio, including Perfect Day Mexico, which will open in 2027, and the upcoming Royal Beach Club projects in the Bahamas and Cozumel, Mexico.
Recurve Capital stated the following regarding Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) in its Q4 2024 investor letter:
“Cruise companies (Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) and NCLH) – 12% of assets as of 12/31/2024
The cruise lines are disruptive in the vacation market. They offer extraordinary, high-satisfaction experiences at great value compared to land-based alternatives. The scale of demand they generate in their businesses allows them to build bigger and better assets, including new portfolios of private destinations which elevate satisfaction while keeping customers (and their wallets) captive within the cruise ecosystem all day. These private destinations magnify the returns of all the vessels that visit these destinations and improve ROIC across their asset portfolios. They have meaningful opportunities to continue these and other innovative expansions over the coming decades. I recommend reading our recent Insight about RCL’s private resorts.
With only 2% market share in vacations and less than 10% of all Americans ever having taken a cruise (but with high repeat rates), the sector has a long way to go before it reaches maturity – especially as the operators keep elevating the quality of the assets and the experiences they can deliver to guests. There remains a significant price differential between cruise vacations and their land-based alternatives, but cruising is not just a value play. The experience is unique and compelling outside of its superior economic value. These are not like customers looking to trade down from a Ritz Carlton to a Marriott to save money – these are vacationers looking for a unique experience that only cruising can deliver.
RCL and NCLH trade at relatively modest P/E multiples. They have highly visible future capacity growth since newbuild pipelines are contracted years in advance. Their normalized growth algorithm is straightforward and reminds me of the old cable equity algorithm (back when there was growth in cable!): modest capacity growth + modest pricing growth + cost growth below inflation = HSD/LDD revenue growth and LDD-mid-teens earnings growth. If we layer on accretive balance sheet actions that are now opening up in the post-Covid recovery period (reducing interest expense and returning capital to shareholders), we can get to >20% medium-term EPS CAGRs.
Both RCL and NCLH trade at undemanding valuations because most investors treat them as cyclicals trading at or near peak earnings or peak pricing power. There will always be periods of relative strength and weakness, but the long-term trendline on pricing is up – well above inflation. It would take a severe recession for pricing to turn negative.”
Overall, RCL ranks 6th on our list of S&P 500 stocks that outperformed bitcoin in 2024. While we acknowledge the potential of RCL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that certain AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than RCL but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and Complete List of 59 AI Companies Under $2 Billion in Market Cap
Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
