Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Michael Bayley: Yes, on China, there’s — obviously, the environment’s improved significantly from what we’ve being told by our China team. So things have started to normalize, and they seem to have got over that very difficult period. There’s currently two impediments to the China cruise market opening up. One of them is there’s still a ban technically on cruising and group travel in China. And also, there’s a requirement from the Japanese that Chinese tourists have to test and potentially could be quarantined. We understand that both of these conditions will drop away at some point during this first half. That’s what we’ve been led to believe, and we believe that that’s going to happen. As soon as those two conditions change, then obviously, the market will reopen and we’re thinking that it will be late ’23, and we’re kind of thinking that ’24 probably, realistically, the China market will be back.

But obviously, that’s based upon how we understand and see the situation currently.

Jason Liberty: Yes, I was just going to — and clearly, China was a very high-yielding, highly profitable market for us. And as that market comes back online, we’re very optimistic about how that can either further propel the opportunity for us. And I would just comment in the context of Trifecta, we didn’t contemplate China in that consideration as it has not turned itself back on.

Naftali Holtz: And it’s also not obviously included in our — this year results as well.

James Hardiman: Got it. All really helpful. And then by way of follow-up here. I mean, you’ve talked a couple of times, I think, about closing that gap to land-based vacations. I thought the commentary about cruise search outpacing general vacation searching seemed relevant. Maybe speak to that. Do you think that gap has gotten as big as it’s going to get and maybe you close that gap this year? Obviously, you have much more insight into your own business than into land-based vacation but maybe sort of updated thoughts there.

Jason Liberty: Yes, I don’t know — I don’t think we’re going to close that gap in 2023. I’m encouraged by the ability now for us to increase our pricing even more, which I think will give us the opportunity to close that gap. I’m excited about what we’re seeing in the onboard side, which also helps us close that gap. But that gap, which used to be 20% is now in the 30% zone relative to pre-COVID, which was around the 20% mark. But we do think that, that’s — there’s a lot of runway for us, and that just I think through great execution, just broader awareness of our brands and the cruise complex that we see now as being appreciated more and more by our guests helps us lead to getting the pricing and which helps us lead that to that — closing that gap.

What we’re not interested in is the gap closing just because their pricing could potentially go down. Like we want to elevate ourselves up to that level, and we think that’s definitely something that’s in our capabilities to do so.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Politzer with Wells Fargo.

Daniel Politzer: Congrats on a nice quarter. So first, I wanted to just touch on the cost. It sounds like you’re going to exit 2023 more in line with your historical levels. As you get to 2024, and I know it’s still early days, are there any kind of onetime items that we should be thinking about that could impact your algorithm, that kind of 1% to 2% cost increase and whether it’s China relaunching or land-based destinations or any technology initiatives?

Naftali Holtz: Good morning, Dan. So as we said, our formula is moderate capacity growth, moderate yield growth, strong cost control and obviously, you have several linked pieces here in the first quarter and throughout the year. But this is kind of where we’re marching towards. So our expectation is to get back to that formula.