Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE:RY) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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This year, there was a constructive backdrop as I think a lot of our clients were repositioning their portfolios around year-end and for the year ahead. with what continues to be a wide array of views for how 2023 may play out. So that drove heightened client volume. And then as I mentioned, I think our mix did play to our favor a little bit. In 2022, our mix created some natural headwinds for us because of challenges in the credit business. Repo spreads were still quite depressed. None of those have been dramatic changes, But obviously, it was a more constructive quarter for credit. We have continued to see some moderate improvement in our repo spreads. And so I think our mix has helped. And then importantly, I think our team has just executed really well on a number of strategic initiatives that we’ve been investing in and focused on over a number of quarters.

So — all to say, it was a very robust quarter. I certainly wouldn’t expect that kind of run rate to continue through the balance of the year. But at the same time, there were no one-off items or anomalies. It was just a really good solid backdrop and our team executed well against it.

Mehmed Rizvanovic: And then maybe just quickly for Neil. On your residential mortgage lending in Canada, I’m not sure if you want to provide any guidance on where you think your growth level could drop. It looks like you’re up about 50 bps quarter-over-quarter. What I’m wondering is just given the dynamic of potentially higher rates for longer, so — like is there a possibility that the mortgage book starts to shrink here, not materially, but maybe by a few percentage points. Is that something that you think is a possible outcome if you do get this dynamic of higher rates for longer and obviously, the origination volume seems to be very weak right now? Home sales are very weak. Is that something that’s a possibility in your view?

Neil McLaughlin: Yes. Thanks for the question. To your point, originations are down materially, probably about in the range of 40% in terms of transactions. And then you overlay the €“ just the HPI decrease, and that further takes it down in terms of the actual dollars hitting the balance sheet. So right now, Q1 is not really the heavy origination period of the year. We are getting reports in the market that some inventories are coming online. Some properties are actually staying on the market for shorter periods of time. So it’s probably too early to tell. Our outlook for the mortgage business for the full year would be mid-single digits. Is where we see it getting to, but there isn’t anything when we look through the portfolio based on what we would see where negative growth in the quarter would be something we would expect.

Operator: Next question is from Lemar Persaud, Cormark Securities.

Lemar Persaud: I want to turn back to expenses, specifically at the all-bank level. And looking at your Slide 13, is there any element of investment either in terms of technology or FTE related to enhancing collection processes, related to the tougher credit environment perhaps in Canadian Banking? Or is the growth in tech and comp all kind of strictly related to growth initiatives?

Neil McLaughlin: Yes, I’ll take the question. No, there isn’t technology that we would need to put in, in terms of the collection activities. I mean, it is — we — if you look at our largest increase in expenses year-over-year is compensation that’s partly due to wage inflation Dave spoke to, but also bringing on additional complement of FTE, mostly in front of the client, where we’re looking to really build volumes. But we have started to build up that collections group in terms of just capacity, but it’s not a technology driver at all.

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