Rogers Communications Inc. (NYSE:RCI) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Rogers Communications Inc. (NYSE:RCI) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript February 1, 2024

Rogers Communications Inc. beats earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $1.19, expectations were $0.76. Rogers Communications Inc. isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).

Operator: Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Rogers Communications Inc. Fourth Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. As a remainder, all participants are in a listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. Following the presentation we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Carpino, Vice President of Investor Relations with Rogers Communications. Please go ahead, Mr. Carpino.

Paul Carpino: Thank you, Ariel, and good morning everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, I am here with our President and Chief Executive Officer, Tony Staffieri; and our Chief Financial Officer, Glenn Brandt. Today’s discussion will include estimates and other forward-looking information from which our actual results could differ. Please review the cautionary language in today’s earnings report and in our 2022 Annual Report regarding the various factors, assumptions, and risks that could cause our actual results to differ. With that, let me turn it over to Tony to begin.

Tony Staffieri: Thank you Paul, and good morning everyone. I’m very pleased to report that Rogers delivered another record quarter. This reflects the eighth consecutive quarter of growth and momentum for our company. As I reflect on the year, we delivered industry leading results, completed an industry leading merger, and drove industry leading innovation, and we returned to number one in virtually all key growth metrics. Let me start with our full year results. In 2023, we delivered on our commitments. We met our increased financial guidance and grew service revenue by 27% and adjusted EBITDA by 34%. In a very competitive and growing market more Canadians chose Rogers over any other competitor for the second year in a row. In 2023, we attracted 674,000 postpaid mobile phone net editions up an impressive 24%.

This was driven by disciplined execution, leading distribution, and attracting new Canadians. Simply put, we’ve out executed our competition for two straight years. Over the past two years, we’ve attracted an impressive 1.4 million Canadians across our mobile and internet services. This is the best performance in our industry and in our company’s history. We achieved this customer growth while maintaining disciplined execution to deliver healthy financial results, and we delivered positive total shareholder returns for the second straight year in a row. In cable. We continue to accelerate market share in the East and West. This quarter we attracted 20,000 new internet customers more than double over last year, and we achieved industry leading margins of 56%.

There’s more work to do, but we’re heading in the right direction. Overall, the team is firing on all cylinders and executing with discipline. Second, we completed our historic merger with Shaw. In April, we closed the largest financial transaction in Canadian telecom history and we continue to deliver healthy organic growth. In nine short months we have largely integrated the two companies and delivered impressive results. We upgraded 450,000 Shaw mobile customers from the Freedom Network to Canada’s largest and best 5G network. Teams across the combined organization, operations, — customer service, network, and IT are now integrated and our ERP system transition is proceeding as planned. From a customer perspective, we introduced Roger’s internet and TV services and Shaw footprint and we launched new bundled offers.

We rebranded our corporate retail stores and started selling wireless and residential services in our retail channels. We also grew Roger’s brand presence in a meaningful way. Today, Alberta and BC are our fastest growing markets and we’re gaining healthy market share. We said we would increase competition in the West and we have. We’ve doubled the size of our cable business and cable footprint overnight. This is a scale business and the power of scale is starting to show giving customers more choice and they’re responding favorably to the Rogers brand. This disciplined execution translated into strong financial performance. In 2023, we realized synergies of $375 million and exited the year with a $750 million annual run rate. This is six months ahead of schedule.

We also reduced our debt leverage ratio to 4.7 times at year end. This is down over half a turn in just nine months, driven by synergy cost reductions, earnings growth, and the payback of acquisition related debt. We’re well on our way to de-leveraging our balance sheet back to pre-Shaw acquisition levels and doing it ahead of plan. Third, we invested and delivered a number of important innovations. We signed exclusive agreements with SpaceX and Lynk Global to bring satellite to mobile coverage to Canada. We made the country’s first satellite to mobile phone call and we’re on track to introduce our satellite services to Canadians this year. This technology is critical to connect rural and remote parts of the country. We invested to bring satellite sensors and AI cameras to better predict and detect wildfires in remote areas, and we’re leveraging this technology across the nation to assist with other natural disasters that are on the rise.

We acquired BAI Canada and introduced 5G service to all subway riders on the TTC. We invested in digital innovation to drive efficiencies and margin expansion. For example, in Roger’s business, we eliminated 70,000 hours of manual work through automation, which accounted for 78% of wireless volume last year, and we were awarded Canada’s best wireless network for the fifth year in a row. In 2023, we invested a record $4 billion in network and innovation and we’ll continue this record level of investment in 2024. This morning, we also announced the first network slicing trial in Canada. We tested this new technology with Ericsson across Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver using our standalone 5G core network. This innovation will materially change how our network operates, offering multiple lanes for wireless traffic.

We will offer a dedicated lane for first responders, so they will always have priority on the network and we can separate fixed wireless access traffic. So as we expand our FWA offering across the entire nation, we will not have to worry about congestion for our smartphone customers. This is truly a game changer for Canadians and we’re proud to bring this to Canada first. Looking ahead, we will launch our 10G and DOCSIS 4 internet roadmap to deliver the next generation of internet and entertainment services to Canadians. More investment and more innovation, this is our commitment to Canada and to Canadians. Finally, before I turn it over to Glenn, let me touch on guidance. This morning we announced industry leading guidance for 2024. This outlook reflects our clear focus, disciplined execution, and unrelenting ambition to lead the market and be number one.

It reflects a third year of strong service revenue and EBITDA growth. It reflects record levels of investment and it reflects strong free cash flow growth. At the same time, we expect to continue de-leveraging at the same rapid pace. It was a record breaking year and I’m very pleased with our progress. I would like to thank our entire team for their relentless commitment to driving growth and innovation. Let me now turn the call over to Glen.

Glenn Brandt: Thanks Tony and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning. Rogers fourth quarter results reflect our eighth consecutive quarter of strong execution. These results highlight our continued success in integrating Shaw, which remains six months ahead of plan from a synergy and de-leveraging standpoint. Our Q4 results also reflect strong momentum and another quarter of industry leading operating and financial metrics to cap off a very strong year. We have delivered on our 2023 guidance and we are optimistic with our growth opportunities for 2024 as reflected in our 2024 guidance release this morning. Let me start with the highlights from our fourth quarter results. In wireless, we once again delivered what we anticipate will be industry leading market share and results.

Service revenue increased a strong 9% reflecting healthy and disciplined growth in our mobile customer base. Consistently for eight consecutive quarters now, Rogers has delivered industry leading wireless net ads combined with strong disciplined financial performance. Simply put, more Canadians choose Rogers than any other carrier, and that trend continued through the fourth quarter. Postpaid mobile phone customer net additions were a very robust 184,000 in the quarter, once again, heavily concentrated in our premium Rogers brand. Rogers led in market share in a very active and competitive wireless market. On a full year basis 2023 postpaid mobile phone net additions reached record levels at 674,000 customers, up 24% year-over-year, well ahead of our two national peers.

Consistently for two years now, our strategy has been to drive loading on the Rogers brand with its robust 5G premium service offerings and value for customers. As a result, Rogers not only led in market share, but also delivered positive underlying ARPU in a highly competitive environment. On a pro forma basis, adjusted to remove the impact of integrating a half million Shaw mobile subscribers, ARPU increased a very healthy 1% year-over-year. This sustained positive ARPU growth combined with a very strong overall service revenue growth, EBITDA growth, and market share highlights once more the effectiveness of our premium brand strategy. As reported, wireless ARPU was $57.96, which was down 1% when including the impact of integration of roughly a half million Shaw mobile subscribers on discounted bundled offerings.

Postpaid mobile churn in the quarter was 1.67%, that’s up 43 basis points year-over-year, reflecting an increase in the seasonally heightened promotional activity occurring in the Black Friday through Boxing Week period. However, once more, I emphasize that with our sector leading postpaid net ads, continued emphasis on our premium Rogers brand, and growth in service revenue, EBITDA, and underlying ARPU we very effectively balanced our priorities and I’m pleased with the outcome. And so through all of that, wireless adjusted EBITDA was up 10% year-over-year and our adjusted EBITDA margin grew by 70 basis points to 64%. Moving to our cable business, we continue to execute very well against our efficiency targets and we are delivering on our cost synergies roughly six months ahead of plan and what remains a highly competitive market.

Cable revenue was up 95% year-over-year as a result of the Shaw acquisition and an increase in our retail internet base. While we continued to see a high level of promotional competition from our major peers, we had reasonably strong retail internet net additions of 20,000 in the fourth quarter, up 13,000 year-over-year, and in particular, we continued to see positive momentum and growth in the West. Offsetting the competitive pressure on revenue growth, our cost synergy and efficiency efforts are producing very strong results. Cable adjusted EBITDA was up 113% and we reported an adjusted EBITDA margin of 56%, up 490 basis points year-over-year. For the full year cable adjusted EBITDA margins improved 330 basis points. Cost synergies realized in year totaled $375 million and we exited 2023 at an annualized run rate on cost synergies achieved of $750 million on a target of $1 billion when we first launched Shaw.

We recognize there is more work ahead on bringing our cable business back to positive and healthy organic revenue growth, but we believe we have the right priority focusing on premium services and profitable growth, and we are targeting further improvements in 2024. Finally, in our sports and media business, media revenue was down 8% and adjusted EBITDA was a positive $4 million versus $57 million in the fourth quarter of last year. The decrease in both revenue and adjusted EBITDA year-over-year was primarily the result of lower sports related revenue, most notably reflecting an extraordinary distribution received from MLB in the fourth quarter of 2022, which did not repeat in 2023. While the advertising market remains challenged, we believe our high quality media assets and our focus on sports will remain a critical contributor for our sports and media business going forward.

Ad revenue remains a positive contributor to media revenue growth in large measure as a result of our live sports content. At a consolidated level, Q4 service revenue increased 30% and adjusted EBITDA was up by 39%. This resulted in strong margin expansion with adjusted EBITDA margin increasing by 300 points — 340 points to 44%. Q4 adjusted net income increased 14% to $630 million reflecting the flow through of higher adjusted EBITDA. Capital expenditures in the quarter were up 19% year-over-year to approximately $946 million with almost half directed towards our cable operations. The 22% increase in capital expenditures predominantly reflects the acquisition of Shaw. Network and customer investment remains our priority as we deliver on our network expansion efforts, launch new transformative technology products and services, and capitalize on growth opportunities in the West.

Even with the increase in capital expenditures, we saw our capital intensity decline approximately 100 basis points in the quarter to approximately 18%, and after tax free cash flow grew 30% year-over-year to $823 million. These achievements have enabled us to already start paying down our acquisition debt in part with funds from operations. During the fourth quarter, we also committed $475 million for 40 megahertz of 3,800 megahertz spectrum, buying up to our 100 megahertz spectrum cap across 172 regions available under the spectrum auction. The acquired 3,800 megahertz spectrum compliments our industry leading 3,500 megahertz 5G spectrum over Canada’s largest 5G network covering urban centers, cities, and towns and rural and indigenous communities from coast to coast, and Rogers continues to hold the largest individual portfolio of wireless spectrum among Canadian telecom operators.

Payment for this 3,800 megahertz spectrum will be made in two installments. $95 million was paid in January and a final payment of $380 million will be paid in May 2024. Turning to the balance sheet balance, our financial position remains very strong. At year end, we had $5.9 billion of available liquidity including $800 million in cash and cash equivalents and a combined $5.1 billion available liquidity under our bank credit facilities. Our weighted average interest rate on all borrowings is under 4.9%, and our weighted average term to maturity is 10 years. We remain very comfortable with the strength of our balance sheet funding and overall liquidity. Our leverage ratio at year end improved to 4.7 times down from 5.3 times announced at the Shaw close, a pace roughly six months ahead of schedule.

Delevering remains a critical focus and we anticipate leverage will continue to improve by roughly a half turn through 2024 from a continuation of earnings growth, proceeds from asset sales, and from using free cash flow to pay down debt as we work to restore leverage and credit ratings back to pre-acquisition levels. Succinctly, prudent capital management, focused execution on cost synergy generation, and EBITDA growth combined with targeted selling of non-core assets is working and we are delevering ahead of schedule. Once again, I’m very comfortable with our progress on this initiative. In December, we took advantage of an opportune rise in Cogeco’s share price and sold our entire holdings in Cogeco for $827 million with the proceeds directly and immediately applied to debt reduction.

Additionally, and as previously mentioned, we are in the process of divesting non-core assets with targeted proceeds of $1 billion, predominantly real estate assets, and targeted to close in 2024. In the fourth quarter, we returned $265 million in dividends to shareholders of which $190 million was paid in cash and $75 million was paid in Class B non-voting shares under our dividend reinvestment program, a participation rate of approximately 28%, generating roughly $300 million in annualized cash preservation. On a consolidated basis for the full year, total service revenue grew 27% and adjusted EBITDA grew a healthy 34%. Capital expenditures came in at $3.9 billion and free cash flow for the year was over $2.4 billion, each well in line with our upgraded 2023 guidance.

Overall, we are very pleased with our results for 2023. This year was about driving growth and efficiency while executing on our plans to integrate Shaw and delever our balance sheet. From the day we first closed on Shaw we have prioritized and we have delivered on guidance, on cost synergy generation, on delivering, and on market leadership. In terms of our outlook for 2024, we are forecasting another year of strong top and bottom line growth and strong underlying free cash flow growth. We anticipate total service revenue growth in the range of 8% to 10% and adjusted EBITDA growth in the range of 12% to 15%, targeting another year of industry leading performance and growth. We anticipate capital expenditures to be in the $3.8 billion to $4.0 billion range, and free cash flow is expected to be in the range of $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion, A very healthy increase from our 2023 free cash flow levels and providing substantial and growing heft to our delivering.

Our performance over the past two years, combined with our 2024 outlook reflects a focused company. We will continue to grow, to generate strong free cash flow, and to delever our balance sheet as we said we would when we announced the Shaw deal almost three years ago. 2023 has been transformative for Rogers, but we are just starting. We delivered strong results and executed very well on the largest telecom acquisition in this country’s history. The work effort has been substantial, and I want to thank all of the members of our incredible team of professionals who show up each day dedicated to our customers and committed to each other. Together, we continue to lead and to strive for more, and I’m honored to work alongside each one of them. We accomplished a lot in 2023 and the look ahead for 2024 is bright and full with opportunity.

Thank you for your time this morning. With that, Ariel, could you please commence the question-and-answer. Thank you for your attention and time this morning.

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Q&A Session

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Drew McReynolds of RBC. Pardon me. Our first question comes from Tim Casey of BMO. Pardon me. Our first question comes from Drew McReynolds with RBC. Please go ahead.

Drew McReynolds: Good morning. Can you hear me okay?

Tony Staffieri: Yes, we’re good, Drew. Good morning.

Drew McReynolds: Yes, good morning. So nice to see all the steady progress here. Two for the points of kind of clarification, I guess, on the timing of the remaining synergies, good to see the higher exit run rates on Q4. The remaining $250 million, can you just speak to what’s left to go and what you’re expecting in terms of timing there? And related just to that, the EBITDA growth range of 12% to 15%, what kind of puts and takes kind of get you to the bottom end versus the top end? And then the second question, just on the cable side. I think you did kind of 3% down underlying cable revenue growth last quarter. Just wondering what it would have been this quarter and particularly just given kind of the uptick in ARPA that we saw? Thanks.

Glenn Brandt: Sure. Thank you, Drew. On the remaining synergies, the emphasis continues to be as we’ve done for three quarters now, hold the gains that we’ve identified and achieved through the last nine months, carry them throughout the year in 2024, and build on them. We are largely through the people part of the integration exercise. We’ve got our team in place. There will be ongoing tinkering and tweaking here and there in terms of moving people. But that part of the exercise is largely complete. We got that done within the first half year, frankly, of the acquisition. We had anticipated a longer run rate on that. So very, very pleased with getting that done in the first year. It settles the organization down. We will now be focused on primarily the vendor negotiation part of the exercise.

Our Cable business is now twice the size and scale that it was pre-acquisition. And so now we set to work on negotiating with vendors reflecting that scale. And so that’s really the largest part of the lift going into 2024. Remaining, we will look to fill in the $1 billion targeted synergies as early as possible in a year. I anticipate, as we exit 2024 we will have achieved the run rate on the full $1 billion but I’m not going to provide any additional clarity on timing around that. In terms of what impacts could affect us to come in at the higher or lower end of that 12% to 15% EBITDA growth range, I’m not going to provide any additional speculation on the positives or the negatives that could come through the year. I think we’ve shown through 2023 that we’ve taken a very balanced approach to our operations and our execution, that will continue in 2024.

We will remain competitive in going after market share and going after cost improvements and efficiencies as well as continuing to drive revenue growth. On your question on cable revenue growth, we continue to see the decline through the fourth quarter in the range of 3% on a pro forma basis when you take out the effect of the acquisition. And so that will be a primary focus for us in 2024, not only going after larger execution on our net additions and customer growth, but also in terms of trying to just turn that revenue decline around as early in the year as we can. But that’s going to take some time to balance.

Drew McReynolds: That’s great. Thanks for that.

Paul Carpino: Thank you Drew. Next question Ariel.

Operator: Our next question comes from Tim Casey of BMO. Please go ahead.

Tim Casey: Thanks, two for me. Tony, there’s been a lot of discussion in the media about reducing the number of foreign student visas and things like that. And obviously, that’s a category that Rogers has been quite strong in. Could you give us some perspective from your seat as to what do you think the impact will be on the loading environment going forward as these changes flow through? And then second, you mentioned very briefly about some network slicing, what’s the narrative on 5G and full deployment, I know you’re not going to be putting the 3,800 in use this year, but how are you — are you seeing anything on the enterprise side or anything that’s going to change the narrative on 5G and we’ll start to see some incremental revenues there? Thank you.

Tony Staffieri: Thanks for the questions, Tim. In terms of the first question on foreign students and the government statements on that. If you look at 2023 in terms of wireless growth, our estimate is that the total market grew over 5%. And so — and that growth was driven roughly half by penetration increases and the other is new to Canada category for the other half. And so both individually are growing at pretty robust rates. With the announcement of the government, we still expect, based on what we continue to see market growth rates in total that exceed 4% probably closer to 4.5%. So still a very healthy market growth and so we expect to continue to lead in market share and so we see the impact. I wouldn’t describe it as a not there, there will certainly be an impact, but we see it as small in the context of the overall market growth.

On the second question relating to our announcement today on slicing — network slicing on our stand-alone 5G core network and the two of them sort of go hand-in-hand. And the applications are really going to revolve around a number of different used cases, including enterprise as you said. The one we’re really excited about certainly is improving the network clarity for first responders and making sure they have priority. But the second is what it does for our fixed wireless access deployment strategy and creating that capacity for that initiative. We do continue to see applications on the enterprise side, but I would say that’s secondary. And some of those have — what you’ll start to see is probably by midyear, some of those applications come on board, and we’ll share some of that stuff in future calls.

Tim Casey: Thank you.

Paul Carpino: Thanks Tim. Next question Ariel.

Operator: Our next question comes from Sebastiano Petti of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Sebastiano Petti: Hi, thank you for taking the questions. Just perhaps a quick follow-up to look through Drew and Tim’s question — line of questions here. But just thinking about in terms of the team’s view on just relative share performance expectations as we move into 2024. I think you sound pretty confident on leading on share once again. But against the backdrop of the industry, how are you thinking about the balance between perhaps rate versus volume and therefore service revenue growth for Rogers in 2024 and beyond? And follow-up as well on cable, I think, great to hear about Alberta and BC. Glenn, I think you said still kind of intimating that ARPA or just trying to get back to that revenue growth — what are the drivers to get there, obviously, headlines about price increases or rate increases earlier in the year.

Is it more of a function of volume, what are the other, again, kind of pieces to the growth algorithm as we kind of get back to cable revenue over the course of 2024? Thank you.

Tony Staffieri: Thanks for the question, Sebastiano. I’ll start with the first one in terms of our share performance, and I take it you’re referring specifically to Wireless. The drivers of our success have really been a number of factors that have helped the execution. But again, it’s against the backdrop of a very strong growing market that we’ve really leaned in on our distribution channels, the simplicity of the customer experience, a number of other value offerings we’ve surrounded the customer with, including we launched in Q4 the ability for customers to amortize their smartphone purchase on our Rogers credit card over four years, effectively cutting payments in half. And so there’s all those things around as I said, the best-in-class distribution channel.

The second piece of it relates to how we do in various market segments and there’s two comments there that are worth highlighting, certainly in the new to Canada category. We continue to dominate in market share, and it’s something we’ve been paying attention to over several years. And you’re seeing what I would describe as that selling infrastructure continuing to outperform. Certainly, we expect continued competition in that space, but we feel fairly confident about our performance there. And then the last piece I’d make is underlying all that is our execution of a move to the Rogers premium brand. We stated we were moving towards that several years ago. And so what you see happening is this is our strongest quarter of performance on the Rogers brand when you look at relative share.

And so our strategy of focusing on the premium brand in both Wireless as well as in Cable is paying out well for us.