Rithm Capital Corp. (NYSE:RITM) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Michael Nierenberg: The answer is yes, yes and yes. If there were three questions. If there were two, I’m going to give you yes and yes. Right now, what I would tell you on the sub-servicing side, we have a very good sub-servicing business. That will grow. There’s a little bit of uncertainty. There’s a couple of large sub-services that potentially could come to market. We’re extremely well-suited to be in a position to, what I would say, grow our sub-servicing and take out costs, where I think that gives us an edge over others. On the MSR front, same thing. We think MSRs are extremely attractive here. We do think there’ll be some supply. Obviously, the Wells announcement until that actually comes, we’ll see what happens. But we’ll add as long as we think the risk-adjusted returns have teens in front of them.

Giuliano Bologna: That makes sense. And this is hopefully not a three-part question, but when I look at the servicing side, CPR was down at 5% at just on a dollar basis, it looks like the amortization was 4.9% in the quarter. Obviously, that trend can continue in the short-term into the first quarter, and then obviously move around throughout the year. I’m curious, how long do you think the CPR is going to stay at near historic lows? And I have the same, on the other side of that, I’m curious how far out you think like the origination platform back to profitability, remove a little bit of a drag on the great servicing performance?

Michael Nierenberg: So let’s take the last part of the question. On the origination side, I think we should be back to profitability, either Q1 or early Q2. We’ve taken actions, obviously, on the retail side, which is a very difficult business, as you can imagine. And I feel like we’re well-positioned now there. And in some of the earlier comments, we merged our JV business, the shelter business with retail. So again, creating more synergies and taking on more expense. Regarding MSRs and speeds, I mean it’s going to come down to housing turnover. I’m not sure who’s going to refinance a 3.5% coupon until mortgage rates go back towards the lows and housing becomes a little bit more affordable. So I think we’re in this for a bit.

I don’t see — there’s no reason for somebody — the reason you see probably less housing transactions is, why would somebody sell their house unless they need to, if they have a 2.5% or 3% coupon mortgage rate. So I think it’s really going to come down to housing turnover, if home prices cheapen up, and I think it’s more likely you’ll see growth in the rental markets as things are less affordable today.

Giuliano Bologna: That’s great. I really appreciate the answers to reference. And I’ll jump back in the queue. Thank you.

Michael Nierenberg: Thank you.

Operator: The next question comes from Bose George with KBW. Please go ahead.

Bose George: Thanks. I just had a follow-up on the gain on sale margin trend. So this quarter order, I mean, it looked like the gain on sale margin is up for each of the channels. I was curious if the markets bottomed, or is it just more of your volume going down and you’re being more selective in terms of engagement?

Nick Santoro: Bose, we did see some improvement in margin in the quarter. And you also do see some impact from adjustments to prior quarter pull-through adjusted rates. So that impacted the margin for the quarter as well. But we are seeing improvement.

Bose George: Okay. Actually, can you just explain the prior quarter adjustments?

Nick Santoro: In terms of prior quarter, you always estimate what your pull-through adjusted rate is when determining your margin for a given quarter. And to the extent you come in better in the long — we think actually come in better, you will see improvement in margin in the current quarter.

Bose George: Okay, great. Thanks very much.

Michael Nierenberg: Thanks Bose.