We recently compiled a list of the 13 Best Commodity Stocks To Buy According to Analysts. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO) stands against the other commodity stocks.
Two major trends that are shaping commodity markets are the rising interconnection of the market and the increasing importance of power in the energy transition, as per a report. The link between necessary commodities for the energy transition, such as LNG and metals, grew to 56% in 2022-23, up from 27% in 2015-19. With the introduction of more than 100 new tankers in the previous three years, the supply of LNG is rising dramatically. By 2028, it is anticipated that there will be more LNG carriers than oil carriers. Flexible contracts and increased competition between Europe and Asia are the main causes of this change.
Moreover, estimates suggest that power will play a larger part in the energy transition by 2040, contributing between $1.3 trillion and $2.4 trillion, expanding at a rate of up to 5% annually. Since renewable energy is predicted to account for the majority of the power mix between 2030 and 2050, significant investments in transmission networks, flexible power assets, and renewable energy sources will be required to meet net-zero targets. Up to 50% of the steel, copper, and aluminum needed for production will come from wind turbines alone.
Meanwhile, it is becoming more difficult to reduce inflation as global commodity prices level off, according to the World Bank’s April 2024 Commodity Markets Outlook. The price decline from mid-2022 to mid-2023 was 40%, but it has since stabilized. However, since the middle of 2023, indices of commodities prices has largely not altered. The World Bank projects that global commodity prices will fall by 3% in 2024 and 4% in 2025, assuming that geopolitical tensions do not flare up again. Inflation will continue to rise above central bank targets despite this modest decline as per the report World Bank.
Oil prices are still high as the world economy is going down; Brent crude is expected to average $84 a barrel by 2024, as per the World Bank. Prices might rise above $100 in the event of global upheaval, providing investors in oil substantial profits. Secondly, due to geopolitical uncertainty and the robust demand from central banks in developing countries, gold is predicted to reach record highs in 2024. This confirms gold’s reputation as a “safe haven” asset in times of market volatility.
Moreover, the demand for metals like copper and aluminum is being driven by investments in green technologies. Already at a two-year high, copper prices are predicted to grow by 5% in 2024, while aluminum prices are forecasted to rise by 2% due to rising demand for renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles.
On the other hand, a report from a large US bank stated that, in May, commodity prices reached all-time highs, driven by increases of 74% in only 1.5 months for U.S. natural gas, copper, gold, and cocoa. A retreat in June was brought on by profit-taking and worries about the U.S. economic slowdown. By year’s end, Natasha Kaneva projects a 10% growth in the commodity market, citing weather-related supply chain disruptions and favorable fundamentals that might raise the price of gas, oil, and agricultural products. Energy transition commodities may see more gains from China’s decarbonization initiatives, and gold prices may reach $2,600/oz by 2025 as a result of Fed rate cuts and central bank easing.
Methodology:
We sifted through holdings of commodity ETFs to form an initial list of 20 commodity stocks. Then we selected the 13 stocks that had the highest upside potential based on analysts’ consensus. We have only included stocks in our list with an upside potential of 30% or higher. The stocks are ranked in ascending order of the upside potential.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here)
Aerial view of an open pit mine, with workers extracting minerals.
Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO)
Upside Potential: 31.09%
Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO) is a prominent global mining firm that engages in the mining of iron ore, copper, aluminum (including alumina and bauxite), and minerals (diamonds, sands, borates, and salt).
The multinational mining company’s current business, was established through the dual-listed structure of the 1995 merger of RTZ and CRA. Each company’s shareholders have equal economic and voting rights, and the two function as a single business entity. Key holdings included the iron ore operations in the Pilbara area, a 30% share in the Escondida copper mine, a 66% ownership in the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia, the bauxite mines of Gove and Weipa in Australia, and six hydroelectric aluminum smelters in Canada.
Demand for commodities is correlated with economic growth worldwide, particularly in China. Rio Tinto has profited handsomely over the last twenty years from its growth in China. China is by far the company’s biggest client, making up almost 60% of sales in 2023.
It is progressing with the $20 billion Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which, following a 27-year delay, is expected to produce 60 million tons of iron ore annually by 2028. The project, which is in collaboration with Chinese companies and the government of Guinea, intends to ship its first cargo of iron ore in 2025, with the possibility of providing 5% of the world market for seaborne iron ore.
Bank of America Securities’ Jason Fairclough has maintained his buy rating on Rio Tinto, highlighting the company’s dedication to decarbonization through its joint venture Elysis and the promising future of the aluminum market. Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO)’s low-carbon aluminum production and favorable Canadian mining operations are among its strategic advantages.
Overall RIO ranks 11th on our list of the best commodity stocks to buy according to analysts. While we acknowledge the potential of RIO as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than RIO but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
