Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Lyndon Fagan: Okay. I thought it said in the footnote, OT was adjusted for 100% there, but maybe we can take that off-line. The other question I had was just in relation to iron ore. It does look as though the January run rates have held strong, which is great to see. Isn’t your guidance now too low for iron ore? I mean, it’s early days in the year, but just considering where the business is at the moment, I mean, it does look as though the top end has got to be achieved. Or is there some other time activity or maintenance that we need to consider through the year that might actually hamper the shipments? And if so, which quarters should we think about there?

Jakob Stausholm: Thank you. This is — this is very helpful because sometimes the pressure from the market is not helpful because if you’re a little bit behind all the time and you’re only thinking about tomorrow and how do I get the last tonnes, you’re not doing the right thing. So we’re actually in a much more comfortable place. And what I would love to see this company getting more into is underpromise and overdeliver, which we have not done too much of in recent years. So I would agree that we are in a good spot here at the beginning of the year. But I would also say that the guidance is absolutely the right guidance.

Operator: And the next question comes from the line of Glyn Lawcock from Barrenjoey.

Glyn Lawcock: Maybe we’ll stick on iron ore, saying it’s 70% of your EBITDA still. Maybe you could just share your thoughts. It seems like from what you’ve said and what you wrote in the report, you seem to be a lot more constructive on China, maybe Q2. Could you maybe talk a little bit what green shoots your team in China are seeing to give you some confidence around maybe iron ore. Could you share your view of steel production and iron ore demand in China this year relative to last year as well?

Jakob Stausholm: Yes. So a couple of things. First of all, you saw already the recovery happening in November. And if you are carefully following the stocks in — the stock levels in China, they have been historically very, very low. So that already gives you some confidence about the needs for restocking, et cetera, plus, of course, that consumption were happening already in Q4. Secondly, when you really dive deep into the property market, there has been a number of indicators that has demonstrated a lot of disruption, but that only covers part of the property market. And when you look at the total property market, it’s probably somewhat more robust than those indicators are showing you. And that’s our assessment as well. We also believe that there will be good investments in infrastructure that is normally quite commodity-intense.

So it feels good. And yes, you can read it in the news as well I spoke to our biggest customer, Baowu, about last week. And certainly, from them, there is a positive way of looking at the economy is going and there’s a need for steel. So I’m quietly optimistic. It’s not going to be kind of wild swings, but the market has already set itself for good demand from China, and that’s what we are seeing happening.

Glyn Lawcock: And maybe just as a follow-up, just if you could share some thoughts on the China Buyers Group. You’ve signed an MOU. What’s the — how does that play out from here do you think? Anything you can share with us on your engagement with the new buyers group?

Jakob Stausholm: Look, the engagement has been very positive. Obviously, we know the Chairman very well because the Chairman used to be Chairman of Chinalco, our biggest shareholder. It’s been entirely constructive. So there’s no warning signs from our side. We used to deal with both private companies and state-owned enterprises in China. So — and so far, what we have been exploring is areas of win-wins. And — and yes, we have — we are welcoming it with the agenda that they have shown us.

Menno Sanderse: Thank you. Liam?

Liam Fitzpatrick: Liam Fitzpatrick from Deutsche Bank. Two questions, 1 on lithium and then 1 on Simandou. I think you quoted this morning on saying you haven’t given up. So what is the latest kind of status and pathway there? And is that really going to be key in determining whether you look at inorganic opportunities in lithium. And then on Simandou, just interested in kind of what is actually taking place on the ground at the moment in terms of work.

Jakob Stausholm: Well, thank you. Let me just take the first. Look, there is an enormous need particularly in Europe for having more lithium for the massive automaker industry. So there’s a lot of customer demands and wish for seeing this being developed. We believe — we are very proud of having discovered what is at least looks like the best ore body in Europe for lithium. We have developed really good solutions. We keep on upgrading it in terms of really making sure that it meets the highest ESG standards. And we believe that it would be good for the development in Serbia. But ultimately, it’s a societal choice. And therefore, the only thing we can do is offering the best and most compelling proposition to the government of Serbia and see — and then see whether they want to develop it. I hope so. And that’s why I keep on saying we have definitely not given up. And on Simandou, Bold, what is happening on the ground?

Bold Baatar: Yes. Look, Charles Zimmerman, who runs our projects has been there a few weeks ago. And he shared some photos around Blocks 3 and 4. We are clearing the site for camp construction. There’s significant ramp-up activity in terms of starting to hire local Guineans. So there’s a lot of activity in terms of the actual capital commitments and potential ramp-up of the project. But obviously, we’re not going to do anything ahead until the finalization of the agreement, as Jakob and Peter had alluded to. So a lot of activity, but a lot of it is preparatory phases for a rapid construction period.

Menno Sanderse: Tyler?