Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated (NYSE:RGA) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Jonathan Porter: Yes, Erik, thanks for the question. This is Jonathan. So yes, just to reiterate what I said in my prepared remarks, this is the first material flu season since the start of the pandemic and there is clear evidence in the general population that claims have been accelerated, probably about eight to 10 weeks or so. I think consistent with what’s showing up in the CDC data, we did see an increase in our frequency in our own claims in the second half of the quarter, and that was factored into our year-end IBNR calculation and therefore, impacted Q4 results. What we’ve seen so far through January, updated reporting for deaths occurring prior to the end of the year. It’s consistent with our IBNR assumptions, which is good.

And then looking ahead to Q1, since the flu appears to have peaked in December and has fallen off sharply in January, we would expect that the impact in Q1 would be lower than a normal historical season as the majority of the deaths likely have been shifted into Q4.

Erik Bass: And maybe one for Todd. You’ve mentioned in the past that quarterly results should be smoother under LDTI accounting, so is this an example of a quarter where under LDTI, you wouldn’t have seen this material decline in the U.S. traditional earnings since the variance in actual versus expected mortality doesn’t affect your future assumptions for claims?

Todd Larson: Hi, Erik, yes. So we do expect with any of the claims volatility, the majority of the claims volatility will be smooth or muted under LDTI. It will be somewhat dependent on the underlying cohorts that the claims where the claims are incurred, but certainly under LDTI, we do expect the volatility to be muted and smooth over time.

Anna Manning: Yes, and just to add, we expect the smoothing will be both on volatility, which is severity, but it will also be on the frequency, so performance, plus or minus, all cause will, over time, get smooth because of the new accounting standard.

Operator: The next question comes from Tom Gallagher with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Tom Gallagher: Good morning. Just a follow-up to Eric’s question on the change in volatility. So, is it fair to say that on the new accounting, we’re not going to see as much seasonality, because during from a historic perspective, you would have dramatically different earnings patterns throughout the quarters with obviously, 2Q, 3Q being much stronger. Will that seasonality also be smoothed out? So we’re going to see kind of a more consistent quarterly earnings pattern here? And also, can you dimension at all for us when you say reduced volatility if we compare last quarter $5 this quarter $3. Are we talking about dramatically reduced volatility? Or is it going to get cut in half. So any way you can dimension that. Thanks.

Todd Larson: Certainly, qualitatively, I can provide some comments. So, as we’ve always discussed in the past, our business is a very long-term business. So the impact of the new financial reporting standard does take more of a look at the long-term nature of the business and looks at the experience and the profitability over time on the business versus letting the short-term volatility flow through to the bottom-line as current GAAP accounting does. So we certainly do intend to see and will see a smoothing of both the positives and the negatives as far as the claims activity under the new financial reporting. I don’t have specific dollar quantification for you on the call today. However, we do plan towards the late February, early March time frame to provide restated LDTI information and have a call to discuss some of those results, but should give you more information and detail behind what the impacts and the differences are between sort of old GAAP and the new LDTI financial reporting.