Regions Financial Corporation (NYSE:RF) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Erika Najarian: Got it. And I’ll follow-up with David [inaudible] with the balance sheet later, because I do want to ask the second question to John. I think, I guess what was surprising to me is that you had like a BNPL solar thing to begin with, right. So Regions has done a great job at not only convincing investors that it’s completely changed in terms of the writing and risk management, but also that in the numbers. And I guess this is a two part question. Number one, as you think about an uncertain macro head, do you feel like you’ve sort of fully captured like things like that, the BNPL solar that you’re now discontinuing that may not be something that you would normally do under your risk management profile? And maybe the follow-up question to that is the 35, 45 basis points.

I think a lot of investors are thinking about a mild recession in 2024. Maybe it just feels like for bank investors versus other types of investors. But in that case, where would Regions peak in a mild recession relative to that 35, 45 basis point range for next year?

John Turner: I think the answer to your first question is yes, to anything that we’re – we feel like we’ve been through our portfolios, certainly been through the new businesses we’ve acquired and any products or programs that don’t meet our risk and return profiles we’ve exited. And in the case of this particular program, as I mentioned, we exited it in 2022. Because of the structure of it, we’ve only begun to see some results. And frankly, those results probably are consistent with our expectations when we shut the program down. So we are continuing to always evaluating the performance of our products, of our capabilities, our businesses, our portfolios, to ensure that we’re getting an appropriate return on the business that we do, and so I’m pretty comfortable there.

With respect to our guidance of 35 to 45 basis points, in the period of 2014 to 2019, our average charge-offs were 38 basis points. And so I think we still – and we have contemplated, we believe, what we consider to be the probability of a soft landing versus a mild recession in our projections for charge-offs. At this point, still feel good about the 35 to 45 basis points in 2024.

David Turner: I would add. This is David, that if you think about recessions, probably if it comes, it would be, we think, fairly mild. As we look at consumers and we look at them through the checking account and activity going in there. We look at businesses; we talk to our business partners all the time. Businesses and consumers are in pretty good shape and in particular for the consumer, if you look at housing prices, those continue to remain strong. And a lot of our lending, if you will, in the consumer space is tied to the house, to the home. So I think that we have a bit of a buffer, and going back to the history that John just mentioned, the 38 basis points between ‘14 and ‘19 gives us confidence that even if we did that, we’d be in that range.

John Turner: Yeah.

Erika Najarian: Thank you.

John Turner: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

John Turner: Good morning.

Manan Gosalia: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. You noted that high rates are pushing up deposit betas and also changing the mix in NIB, NIB deposits. Some of your peers have been saying we’re closer to the end of this. Do you think that there’s anything different that you’re seeing versus peers or is your deposit strategy changing in any way given the increased likelihood of higher for longer rates?