Regions Financial Corporation (NYSE:RF) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

David Turner: Yeah, I think from a fee standpoint, let’s break down the two big pieces. So our service charge number relative to our 24 hour grace, that was implemented in the middle of the second quarter. So we have a full quarter run rate on that. We don’t see that changing materially. We’ve been very proud of our treasury management team. They have done a good job of penetrating our commercial base and we’re seeing that hold up pretty well. So I don’t think you should see the kind of decline in service charges that you just saw. The only thing that can affect us in fees would be, there’s a discussion going on with debit interchange and there’s been percentages thrown out as to what that may mean just to level set with everybody.

We have about $310 million of debit per year. So whatever percentage change we have, you can do your own math on that. We’re not sure that that will even come out, but that’s been mentioned and so we thought — I thought I’d just put that out there.

Ken Usdin: Yeah, that’s fair. And David, can I just come back on that capital point? You’re comfortably in that 10 plus zone and there’s obviously not a lot of current growth in the loan book. So just the push and pull of potentially reengaging in the buyback versus just keeping where you are in a more uncertain environment. Kind of just walk us through just what would be your thought process there?

David Turner: Sure. So as you know, we do an awful lot of stress testing. We do it constantly. We have our CCAR submission. We have a midyear submission. We feel very confident that even if we go into a recession, which we are not calling for, but even if we did, that we’d have capital to withstand that. So, it’s all about optimization Ken, and we think that – we still believe our operating range of 925 to 975 is the right range for regions based on our risk profile. That being said, we’ve had an NPR. We have uncertainty going on. So we added 50 basis points to give us the flexibility to adapt and overcome whatever environment is thrown at us. We don’t see the need to take 10.3 and let it ride up to 10.6, 10.9 and keep going and so that’s what gives us confidence.

We don’t have a big CRE book like others do. We don’t have the risk that some others do. And we have a very good engine. Our PPNR engine is among the strongest because of our deposit profile that we have. And so we have confidence that our earnings stream is going to get us where we need to be, and we think that we have enough capital right now. So if we generate more, we can buy our stock back.

Ken Usdin: Got it. Okay. Thanks David.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

John Turner: Good morning.

Erika Najarian: Hi, good morning. David, my first question is for you. I feel like given the reaction of the stock, I think it’s probably best to completely de-risk consensus numbers, right. So forgive me for asking a super specific question, but based on the disclosure of the swap book and everything that you’re telling us about deposit behavior and hire for longer, it seems like you could hit that sort of 3.50 trough in the first quarter, kind of stay there, maybe go up a little bit and then get towards 3.6, if not a little bit over 3.6 by 4Q ‘23. So that gives you sort of a full year of let’s call it between 3.5 and 3.55 for a ‘24. Again, based on the forward curve, based on slow growth. Does that feel fair?

David Turner: I think you’re pretty good at math. I don’t know if that’s – you’ve nailed exactly.

John Turner: We’re not giving any guidance.

David Turner: We’ve not given any guidance. You’ve done pretty well. You’re understanding exactly how this works in terms of a bigger down draft in the fourth quarter than you’ll see in the first part of the year and then be able to grow from there. So directionally, you’re exactly right.