Redfin Corporation (NASDAQ:RDFN) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Glenn Kelman: Yes, you should think about it in both places, maybe more so on the operating expense side of things. If you look back at our financial results you’d see that we often spend marketing dollars in the first part of the year with the expectation they’ll pull through later. I think that’s a place you’ll see us be pretty careful as the year starts, including the campaigns we’re running and what our plans are there. So we’re paying an awful lot of attention to our view on the housing market, and so we can adjust marketing costs. And then probably the second largest line item on operating expenses just is in headcount, so that’s another place where you’ll see us be pretty cautious about both any kinds of new hires but also we’re just scrutinizing literally every backfill in the company in those groups to make a good determination about whether that role is really needed moving forward.

And then, similarly on cost of revenue until we can see more clearly to the demand patterns on things we are being cautious about agent hiring, and support staff hiring, and kind of all those elements, so that we’re building the right cost base for the year. So it’s across the board, but those would be some of the key areas to call out.

Chris Nielsen: The theme song for this initiative, is the who’s, won’t get fooled again. We went through it this year because traffic was just cracking in January 2023. And so we had a good reason to believe that revenues would follow. Rates went up in March and all this demand just didn’t pull through, but we’d already committed some expense. And so we’ll be more careful this time and really not only look for more people on the website, more people contacting our agents, but how many are coming back for a second tour writing an offer, signing a listing agreement.

Jay McCanless: Thanks. And then my second question. I don’t know if you’ll broken it down this way, but when you look at who’s cutting price, is it across the board, or are we talking more homes that are listing it two or three times the median price of whatever the market they’re in currently?

Glenn Kelman: Pretty broad. I’m basing this on anecdote I haven’t broken it down into segments, but I’ve been going around the country, people aren’t selling their house. We used to have to talk them into lowering their price, asking what’s going to get better at this time of the year, what’s going to change except your price. If you want to remodel the house, maybe we can hold on to this price. Now I think people are saying I get it.

Operator: Our next question comes from John Colantuoni of Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Vincent Kardos: Hey guys. Thanks for taking my question. This is Vincent Kardos on for John. Two questions please, so um first maybe you could share any update you’re able to on your outlook for the trajectory of market share? And then second, I know you talked a little bit about how you’re going to be pushing out some costs and then 1Q later in the year, but maybe, any color you could provide on the trajectory of OpEx into 4Q, that’d be helpful as well. Thanks.

Glenn Kelman: It’s really hard to get a read on share because we know about our own sales, we just don’t know what the rest of the market is doing. So we get numbers days before you do, just indicating via the MLS and later from the national association of realtors how many sales our competitors got. But the open issue for us is rates have really gone up. The market is suffering, our demand has still been strong. It’s just really hard to close that demand. It’s a very unpredictable time. And this isn’t me being a weenie or trying to signal bearishness, it’s just being cautious about signing us up for something when we really don’t know. Historically our market share from the third quarter to the fourth quarter has either been flat or headed down a little bit, so that would just be the best historical indicator.

But there’s not a lot more detail than we can provide in that. Whole reason you track share is to avoid seasonality, for whatever reason our seasonality has always been there on share. Doesn’t make any sense, but it’s always been true. And then, just a comment on operating expenses. There’s not a lot more that I can provide than we didn’t provide already in the guidance on that. So we’ve provided an overall figures on what to expect in that way, but just not a whole lot more color I can add to that.

Vincent Kardos: Got it. Thanks guys.

Glenn Kelman: I just had one closing comment. Because there have been some questions about whether we would extend Redfin Max. Just want all the analysts to remember that sometimes our employees listen to these calls. We are not going to expand Redfin Max unless we think it’s good for our customers first, but also for our agents that we can serve customers better and everyone can make more money. So we think this can be really good especially in these coastal markets, but the truest arbiter of our success is going to be the people in LA and San Francisco customers and agents alike say this was awesome. And if they say that, you’ll be lining up at the door for this new pay program because we’ll all win. That’s it. Thanks for a great third quarter 2023 earnings call.

Operator: This concludes today’s conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

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