And so there’s a great deal of lead time. So we’ve always anticipated that, I mean, this is like the 10th study I’ve done in this particular space over the last 27 years. And I think the shape of the curve is going to look very much like we’ve seen in all the prior studies. So I wouldn’t say the shape of the curve is in any way a surprise. And we’re just getting up and going and would expect to announce our first patient in both of these trials, the Japanese study as well as CONVERT II in the first half of this year.
Jon Young: Great, thanks again, Glenn. Congratulations.
Glendon French: Thank you.
Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from the line of Alex Nowak with Craig-Hallum. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Analyst: Hey, good afternoon. This is Connor [ph] on for Alex. Thanks for taking my questions and congrats on the retirement, Glenn.
Glendon French: Thank you.
Unidentified Analyst: So with $68 million in revenue this year, is there any possibility of adding on a related product to the portfolio in the future?
Glendon French: I think that we would be, is there any possibility? Sure, there’s a possibility. We’re not in the midst of anything. But we are open to accretive types of things that we would be able to leverage with our current call point if we could fully rationalize that. Having said that, we’ve got to be super careful that we don’t distract this finely tuned commercial organization that is growing at a high rate of speed with high margin products that they’re selling right now. And we just scraped the surface in terms of our market penetration, depending on whether you look at a prevalent market or an incident market, at the very best in our most penetrated market, we’re 20% penetrated. So we got a lot of upside that we, so we would be extremely discriminating, but yes, we’d be open to considering things.
Unidentified Analyst: Great, and then could you remind us on the AeriSeal timelines and then maybe frame up how large this opportunity could be?
Glendon French: AeriSeal timelines, well, so we’re commencing this trial and we will be probably enrolling it through next year to get to the couple hundred patients that we’re targeting. And it’s got six months follow up, a few months to collect the data and then however long it takes to get through FDA, good round numbers a year. So I guess that kind of gives you an idea of the timeline. So I would characterize the timeline as outside the normal scope of what your kind of out years would be if you were looking at 2024 through 2026. But the good news, I think about this situation that we’re in is the magnitude of the impact it could have on our business and the probability that as we say, this thing falls jelly side up, meaning whenever you do one of these trials, there’s always a risk associated with an unforeseen outcome.
And the CONVERT II trial is so similar to CONVERT I that we will, when we’re reporting those data later this year, I’m certainly going to be paying close attention, I imagine that many others will be as well because it should give us a pretty good sense of both the probability or the frequency with which we can convert the target patients and then how they behave once we put valves into them. So the question on what this does to, so I would imagine we’re going to be increasing our confidence with regard to the impact of this over time as these CONVERT I data become available. And then with regard to the impact, right now, no, this is probably not terminology I should use, but this is what I call from a marketing perspective kind of shooting fish in a barrel, meaning that the patients that we’re targeting with CONVERT are the very patients that have already signed up for valves.
They undergo, they get a StratX and it gives them a green light and then they undergo anesthesia. And at the front end of the procedure that we’re intending to put valves in, we do a Chartis assessment. And 20% of the time, those patients get woken up and told and they’re incredibly disappointed. They find out that they weren’t a candidate for valves because collateral ventilation was detected, again, one out of five times with the Chartis. And so what we’re targeting, the groups that we’re targeting in CONVERT-I and CONVERT-II are those patients. And so there’s, we’re going to get, we hope about 80% of those patients to a place where they get a positive benefit, and we’ll know in advance whether they’re candidates for AeriSeal. But we see this as roughly a 20% TAM expander, but it’s not like sort of a tangential market that we have to go penetrate.
These patients have already said they want valves, they’re already on the table. And when they find out they don’t get them, they go home crying in many cases. So it’s, I mean, this is, we’re going to, as you might imagine, prior to the procedure, we will tell the patient that there’s about an 80% chance you’re going to get valves. And if you don’t, we’d like you to authorize the use of AeriSeal, that’s what the physician would be saying. And we don’t anticipate that there will be many or any patients that will say that they’re not interested in getting AeriSeal as a path to getting valves, that there’s a 80% chance that when they get AeriSeal, they’re going to subsequently get valves.
