Prologis, Inc. (NYSE:PLD) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Tim Arndt: Yeah. To answer the last part, no, I don’t expect anything into 2024. Basically, of the $0.03, a couple of pennies that were related to termination income from some leases that were canceled and then higher interest income. There’s about $0.02 there I would call that, that’s permanent to the year and then the other penny in the quarter I would say is more of a timing issue, specifically in taxes. We will see some lower taxes in the third quarter, but higher again in the fourth quarter. So if you take that with regard to the rule, if you take that $0.03 out, you are basically rolling from, let’s call it $1.30 million to $1.28 million in the fourth quarter is what’s implied in our guidance. And basically, you would roll NOI forward.

We are going to add — probably add $0.02 from just base same-store growth quarter-over-quarter. And then the declines are going to come from mainly ramping of development. We see much more investment and land and CIP starting to build. And you should be aware in your models, our cost of funding development in the short term is essentially 6%. Think of that as SOFR plus our line rate. We are capping interest at our in-place debt is how this works. That’s at 3%. So in the short-term, that’s a drag on core FFO seen mainly in interest expense. Obviously, over the long-term, the margin in value creation is there. But we will see that drag pick up as development’s ramp.

Operator: And the next question comes from the line of Ki Bin Kim with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Ki Bin Kim: Thanks. Good morning. Two quick ones here. First, on the utilization rate that picked down a little bit this quarter, I was wondering if you can provide any more color around that. And second, if you look at the larger development landscape and look at competitors that are developing, I would assume that the pressure for them to lease up space and maybe they have to pay back the loans to banks probably increases as we move forward. I am not sure how big these developers are or how much capital they have behind them. But is there any risk that as these developers look to secure tenants that could drive rental rates lower going forward?

Chris Caton: Hey, Ki Bin. I will take the utilization question. Thanks for it. As you see on the page in supplemental, there are multiple metrics on the page and we look at all of them in totality and additional ones that are not included in the supplemental. So we have a range of proprietary data, whether it’s our IBI survey, tenants in the market, customer decision-making timeframes, our sales pipeline. Specific to the utilization data, that lags. That does not lead economic and real estate cycles we have seen that over time. And so what I think this is best understood in the context of today’s retail sales numbers, which shows a resilient consumer that is outperforming expectations and leading to lower utilization levels.

Hamid Moghadam: Yeah. On the second issue of opportunities, there are a lot of merchant developers that are bank financed and active in the market and they are just about completing their projects now. They have some interest reserve built into their lease-up plans, but their lease-up plans are going to get extended. So actually, I think, what’s going to happen is that they can’t really be afford to rent the space at the lower rate. I think they are more likely to sell their positions to people with stronger balance sheets and we have already seen and taken advantage of a couple of instances like this. So don’t be surprised to see us buy some vacant completed shelves at discounts to replacement costs, because — it’s — because of our view on demand and supply, with 65% decline in supply, we think if you get into late 2024, early 2025, we are going to be in a pretty strong market.

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