PROG Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PRG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Hal Goestch: Hey, good morning guys. I’d like to ask you about the components of GMV for 2023. And like your thoughts on how much of it you might think is coming from their back book, merchants you had on the books in 2021 that are like basically same store sales off through now and then merchants you added in 2022 and then your assumption for GMV that might come from merchants you add this year that are those in your forecast? Give us your thoughts on those kind of of like where GMV is being originated from?

Brian Garner : Yes. So, I’ll start with the last one. And we always have €“ we also have a number in our GMV plan for pipeline. We want to make sure, keep that pressure on the bizdev team. So, pipeline is in there, but the named accounts are the really exciting ones. Even if we have an announcement this year, it would not be a material impact to 2023 GMV. So, there’s a smaller number in our view or in our outlook from a pipeline standpoint. And then the rest is, kind of just baseline existing retailers and not really with the specificity of calling out the 2019 vintage or the 2021 vintage. We do have the ability and the initiatives to become more productive. And so that will ultimately play out in what you said, which is kind of like a same store sales metric, but we have the ability €“ we’re focusing on these deeper integrations as we mentioned in our prepared remarks.

And so, e-com card integrations, which we’ve talked about over the last couple of years, we still have some opportunities with top 10 partners in that area. More waterfalls, more prominent displays on landing pages and PDPs on the e-com side. In-store POP, credit waterfalls, things of those nature €“ things of that nature in order to increase and grow GMV within the same retail environment and become €“ continue to grow that balance of sale even in a potentially down comp environment for that retailer. One thing that we mentioned and I just want to reiterate here is, we’re obviously still comping against the higher approval rates from 2022 in the first half €“ in the first half of 2023. So, those will €“ that will be more difficult to overcome even with those productivity initiatives.

And the timing of those productivity initiatives are difficult to predict even throughout the year because we have to collaborate and partner well with our retail partners, tech teams or merchant teams, whatever the project might be. We’re working hard on using this opportunity to become more meaningful partner with all of our retailers and we have some well-developed roadmaps at the partner level to achieve that.

Hal Goestch: Could I ask a follow-up on your risk model? You’re now trending toward the lower-end of your lease write-off range, the job market for maybe the lease to own customers seems to be very, very strong at this point in time. And like your color on how the job market is factored into your decisioning and what we’ve heard from other lenders in the less than prime space, you know, several companies have said, hey, we’re probably leading some loan volume on the table or doing less than we could about a bonus of caution, just wanted to get your thoughts on where you stand relative to a statement like that because all these companies focus on the job market, which is pretty good, but they’re all saying €“ they’d probably leave some volume on the table, your thoughts on that?