PotlatchDeltic Corporation (NASDAQ:PCH) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Mark Weintraub: Okay. Super. And then on the Wood Products, you made the comment about being profitable in 1Q. Just wanted to clarify, was that EBITDA? Was that operating profit? And does that build in the expectation which you laid out why you’d have it, but that lumber prices would probably be going higher? Or is that where prices are today?

Eric Cremers: Yes. No, I would say it’s an EBITDA kind of a number and yes, I think it’s primarily driven by improved lumber prices.

Mark Weintraub: Okay. And then — and I guess kind of — well, maybe one more on lumber, if I could. And then you talked about the significant reduction in cash costs related to Waldo. And I think you’ve talked about the specifics before, but can you remind us how much of that might show up this year? And then how much additional would be still in the half for next year?

Eric Cremers: Well, I would say our shipments are going to be down at Waldo this year. We just have way too much work going on. And I think it’s something like 30 million feet we’re going to lose at Waldo because of the project. So we’re not going to see those benefits this year. It’s going to be next year. And really, it’s going to be Q2 and Q3 that take the hit on shipments. We’ll start the year out, just to give you a sense of it, we’re going to start the year out with 51 million feet we expect in Q1 drop into 41 million in Q2 and then 19 million feet in Q3 and then up to 54 million feet in Q4. But by the end of the year, we’re only expect to be at about 80% of where the mill is going to get to eventually. And it’s going to take us until probably Q3 of ’25 to where we’ve got the mill running at 100% of capacity.

And the bid group, who’s our contractor for this project. They’ve done a number of mills, as you know, in the South. And they’ve got a lot of data on the ramp curve for mills with projects like this, brownfield expansions. And it’s fairly well documented. And surprisingly, the range is pretty tight on like first quartile versus fourth quartile mill expansions like this. So we expect to be improving, but it’s going to take a good year to get it fully ironed out.

Mark Weintraub: Okay. And then lastly, maybe if you could just help us a little bit, so you sold some land at 1,700 explained why the price was low given the age class. You bought land at 1,900 with a more even type age class. And at the same time, you’ve been talking about how you’ve been buying back stock in part, it’s a big discount to NAV, yet sort of those $1,700, $1,900 type numbers, don’t necessarily correspond to kind of how most of us are thinking on NAV. So you sort of explained the $1,700. Maybe talk a little bit about the $1,900, and then maybe where you talked about three years ago, maybe $1,700 was representative of an average age class U.S. timberland holding. Do you have a perspective on where that would be today?

Eric Cremers: Well, I would tell you, I would not characterize the acquisition that we made, the 16,000 acres in Arkansas for $31 million or 1,900 acre. That was not an even age force. That was a mature force, average age 25. So we will be harvesting those trees over the next four to five years. That was a privately negotiated transaction, one-on-one and we think we’re going to earn an 8% IRR on that project, which is unheard of in an M&A circles. And we got that return because it was a privately negotiated transaction, just like we did with Luter pretty much like we did with CatchMark, pretty much like we did with Deltic way back when. So Mark, I think to answer the second part of your question, where do I think timberland values are today?

If we brought an even-aged track to the market, what do I think we could get. And I think it depends upon the individual area, but I’d say probably somewhere between $2,500 to $3,000 an acre, depending upon where it might sit somewhere in that ZIP code.

Mark Weintraub: All right. Well, thank you for all the insights.

Eric Cremers: Yes, you’re welcome.

Operator: At this time, I’m showing there are no more questions. I’ll now turn the call back over to Wayne Wasechek.

Wayne Wasechek: Thank you for your questions and your interest in PotlatchDeltic. That concludes our call.

Operator: This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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