Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POST) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Rob Vitale: Yes. Obviously, there is some uncertainty around future trajectory of inflation, but as you lap the pricing, we still have some catch-up to do. But equally important is we make sure we’re running more efficiently with fewer unplanned outages and all the things that we’ve been dealing with last 2 years those all flow through gross margins. So we do expect to see gross margin expansion in €˜23, and we expect it to continue on into €˜24.

Chris Growe: Okay. That’s great. Thank you. And then just a quick question for you. Weetabix is a unique business, but an area where they have seen a little trade down to private label and obviously capture some of that, which is good. I just wanted to get a sense of any areas of your business where you’re seeing that sort of incremental price competition, any incremental trade down? And maybe just a comment around elasticity, you just naturally build in a higher rate of elasticity going forward and kind of see how it goes. I mean so far, elasticity has been great for your business, if you will, very favorable.

Rob Vitale: Yes. And starting at the end of that, in general, that condition remains. Elasticities continue to be relatively low. And I think it’s just the reality of inflation being as widespread it is, as it has been. So, relative choices are remaining relatively the same because inflation is so widespread. But as the absolute price grows, we are starting to see some trade down to private label in North American cereal. The UK is a little bit different because the inflation has been more dramatic and specifically tied to home energy. So the trade down there has been a bit more dramatic. We are not seeing it broadly outside of cereal. And I think as I commented in my prepared remarks, we don’t see the slide of sign yet of pullback in away-from-home consumption, which has frankly surprised us a little bit. So right now, it still feels like the consumer is in a pretty solid state.

Chris Growe: Okay, thank you for the color.

Rob Vitale: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Lavery of Piper Sandler.

Michael Lavery: Thank you. Good morning.

Rob Vitale: Good morning Michael.

Michael Lavery: You had called out restoring more normal foodservice margins in 4Q and obviously, we saw that, and they were even a little ahead of what we might been modeling. But can you give us a sense of how that looks going through 2023? And is there more upside? Have you sort of hit the run rate? And I guess I will tack on my follow-up now, which is at the broader level, as well, you touched on total company above average EBITDA growth looking ahead, and you touched on margin restoration, how much can you get ahead of prior margins as well? I know that would be a little bit further out, but maybe just at a high level, margins and then foodservice margins, would love some color on both of those.

Rob Vitale: Yes. So, foodservice margins, as I have suggested in my remarks, tend to normalize at higher levels than prior to an experience like the €“ whether it’s COVID or AR, whatever the emergency may be because I think that the business is so competitively advantaged, and the biosecurity is so good, and the cost structure is so impressive that it really does allow for a demonstration of the value of the relatively unique proposition that we offer. So, in crisis character is revealed, and I think that’s what happens. We expect this with our foodservice business. By no means do we expect the margin to remain as elevated as it has been in the last couple of months, but we would expect it to remain or to become institutionalized at a higher level than it had been historically.

With the rest of the business, I am not ready to say that we will get past margins that we had entering COVID. I think broadly, margin structures are under pressure as we start to rethink supply chains, and I am talking about not just Post, but very broadly. So, I think our objective is to recover those couple of hundred basis points of margin that came from the things that we can manage. And I am making a distinction between the fact that foodservice grew and that we have acquired some businesses at lower margin structures, very attractive acquisitions, but lower margin structures. So, we are laser focused on getting back to brighten if we see opportunities to expand beyond that. Obviously, we won’t stop there, but that’s not where we are targeting as we speak today.

Michael Lavery: Okay. Great color. Thanks so much.

Rob Vitale: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from David Palmer of Evercore ISI.