Portillo’s Inc. (NASDAQ:PTLO) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So, it’s a no-brainer to do that. And then, the really positive news and I’m very proud of our ops team is we continue get appropriate labor leverage in operational efficiencies. I made kind of a big deal about we’ve got a new kitchen design in Queen Creek and Allen, Texas. That new kitchen design is meant to reduce wasted effort. And by wasted effort I mean needless conveyance, people walking 50 feet to go get something when there should be a refrigerator bin right by their feet. And so, our kitchens are more efficiently designed, it reduces conveyance. We’ve got smart about reducing prep work, etc. So, it’s those three factors, really, Greg, affect labor. Rising rates, how well staffed you are, and then are you getting efficiency by removing effort that is not value added.

And so, the net of those is, how we are going to manage our labor line. And I think we can — we’re still targeting to offset most of the wage inflation. Michelle?

Michelle Hook: Yeah. Greg, I would just add, as we look at 2024, obviously we’re putting those plans together. Nothing that I’m seeing today indicates that we’re going to be different than what we saw this year, which when you think about that mid-single digit wage inflation, I don’t anticipate us being outside of that range as I sit here today.

Gregory Francfort: Got it. And maybe just one last one. I know this is kind of more model focused than I would like for this call. The last week between Christmas and New Year’s, I think it shifts between 1Q and 4Q the coming two quarters.

Michael Osanloo: Yeah.

Gregory Francfort: Is that a big sales volume week for you and just in terms of right sizing both the impact on 4Q, but also potentially the impact on 1Q of next year?

Michelle Hook: Yeah. That’s generally the week after Christmas. And so, as Michael mentioned, we see a lot of catering leading up to that Christmas time, Greg, as he mentioned. And so, I would say what we saw last year, Michael mentioned Elliott and we saw like an immediate pickup in sales last year right after the year ended in 2022. So, that first week in fiscal 2023, we saw big a pickup. So, as we’re lapping that week, that 53rd week, let me just say it, could be year-over-year a little bit pressured because you had the pickup from Elliott last year versus this year, if that makes sense to you. So, long story short, I don’t say it’s like a huge blowout week for us I think the week prior. When you look at that Christmas Eve, Christmas timing, is a lot of the bigger catering volume that we see.

Gregory Francfort: Understood, thank you.

Michelle Hook: No problem.

Operator: Our next question comes from Brian Harbour with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Brian Harbour: Yes, thank you. Good morning.

Michael Osanloo: Good morning.

Michelle Hook: Good morning, Brian.

Brian Harbour: Michelle, just to kind of follow-on those comments about 2024, do you have any kind of early thoughts on commodities next year at this point or even on the beef side, do you think there could be a little less inflation in 2023 or maybe something similar?

Michelle Hook: I don’t think beef is going to lighten up, Brian, into next year. So, I think that will still be pressured. I mentioned on the last call we’re taking positions into 2024. And so, when we look at the beef flats, we’re trying to derisk some of that line item. And we have taken some positions into both Q1 and Q2 of next year to derisk that. But, no, I expect that to continue to be pressured. But when we look at the overall basket, I’ll say the same thing I said about labor. As I sit here today, I don’t expect to be outside of that mid-single digit range. We’ll update you all as we get into the New Year at ICR with what we’re seeing for the full 2024 fiscal year. But I’m not seeing anything today that would indicate anything beyond that mid-single digit for 2024 as well on the commodity line.

Brian Harbour: Okay. Yeah, sounds good. Just on four wall margins, I mean, they have been quite strong year-to-date, so you’re kind of comfortably higher as you’ve suggested. Do you think that’s mainly influenced by just strong new store openings, maybe they’re kind of ramping a bit quicker than you thought or anything else broadly that you’d characterize has really helped store margins?

Michael Osanloo: I want to brag about my team because I will tell you that the labor efficiencies that we’ve got by putting people in the right position and reducing conveyance has been a big help. Otherwise, labor would have been out of control. Michelle and her team have done a brilliant job of forward buying beef and doing other creative things to make sure that we’re not as — we’re not held hostage to the beef prices. So, we track very carefully where our beef flats are versus the market, and we’re really happy with what we’re paying versus the market and I give a lot of credit to my team for that. So, it’s a lot of — Brian, it’s a lot of pick and shovel work behind the scenes to make sure that those margins are as robust as they are.