Portillo’s Inc. (NASDAQ:PTLO) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Michelle Hook: Yeah. Sara, I think when you look quarter-over-quarter, I’ll talk Q4 2022 versus 2023, right, you hit the nail on the head. I mean, commodities when you look at that and you look at what we’re running on that food line for us, I think that’s where you see some of the improvement quarter-over-quarter. I think if you’re talking sequentially Q3 versus Q4, we do have the pricing rolling off so that’s going to be a headwind. And as these new units come on, we talked about — they’re coming on later in the quarter, but that does have a bit of an impact when you think about particularly that labor line. And so, I see the improvement coming year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, primarily from that commodities line when you look at that. Because I think labor is generally when you look at Q4 2022 versus 2023 will generally be in line. And so, you get the impact of the commodities. But sequentially, I think we’ll be impacted with that pricing rolling off.

Sara Senatore: Okay. Yeah, I was more thinking year-over-year just this idea that 3Q versus 3Q, you had some improvement, but mostly it seemed from commodity. So, is that sort of the same.

Michelle Hook: Yeah, you [indiscernible] and if you look at Q3 of last year, we were running at about just over 35% versus the 33% this year. And so, I don’t expect Q4 of this year to change much sequentially. I think inflation will be very similar to what we saw in Q3 from a commodity standpoint.

Sara Senatore: Okay. And so, as we think about the complexion of margin, year-over-year 4Q should look similar to 3Q in the sense of most of the tailwind coming from the commodities?

Michelle Hook: Correct.

Sara Senatore: Okay. And then even with perhaps better transaction trends.

Michelle Hook: As Michael mentioned in October, we are seeing better trends. And I said in my prepared remarks, when we look at transactions mix combined, yes, we’re seeing improved trends versus what we saw in Q3.

Sara Senatore: Right, but still thinking about the margin construct similarly even though trends, okay.

Michelle Hook: Yeah.

Sara Senatore: And I’ll [indiscernible].

Michelle Hook: Yeah.

Sara Senatore: Okay. And then just again on G&A sort of thinking through that increase, how should sort of I think about sort of your — the variable comp in terms of when we think about your long-term algorithm Should we think about your sort of internal goals as consistent with that so that as we’re trying to sort of think about where there might be upside? In terms of variable comp, it should look sort of similar to what you’ve articulated at your long-term growth targets?

Michelle Hook: Yeah, correct. As you know, long term we’re targeting 75% of that revenue growth rate. As we think about and you think about modeling G&A in the future, absolutely, that’s how we think about it internally. For the fourth quarter, we increased the range. I think Michael mentioned the incremental dollars we’re spending on advertising in the fourth quarter within our just our core market of Chicagoland where we have scale. We think that to — definitely I think to Chris’ earlier, one of the levers that we can pull as we’re in this, as Michael mentioned, that sluggish environment in a market that we upscale like our market of Chicago, we can pull that lever, Sara. And that’s where we’re seeing the increase in the investment that we made in G&A. And that’s why you’re seeing that range go up in particular in for the full year why we raised that range.

Sara Senatore: Okay. Got it. Thank you.

Michelle Hook: Yeah.

Operator: Our next question comes from Gregory Francfort with Guggenheim. Please go ahead.

Gregory Francfort: Hey, thanks. I just had a couple of quick ones. The first is, I know you guys have not historically wanted to comment a lot about trends regionally, but just given the traffic declines, I’m curious any big differences between either Chicago and non-Chicago or regional things to call out?

Michael Osanloo: No, I mean — Greg, first, good morning. I wouldn’t say so. I think that we obviously look — we look very carefully at our traffic trends and transaction trends and we use black box. We compare ourselves within Chicagoland and not Chicagoland. And I would tell you overall the trends are pretty consistent and the improvements are pretty consistent. So, I don’t think there’s anything idiosyncratic there with our performance in this market.

Gregory Francfort: Got it. And then —

Michael Osanloo: Yeah.

Gregory Francfort: Okay. Got it. And then just we’ve seen a few companies start to talk about 2024 labor inflation in the —

Michael Osanloo: Yeah.

Gregory Francfort: — mid-single digit range. I think it’s interesting that you guys are running sort of below that. I don’t know if that’s something to do with either where you are regionally or I’m just curious if you kind of think that that’s — I know it might be a little bit early if that’s something that would be consistent with what you guys would expect or if you guys might be able to run below that next year?

Michael Osanloo : So, a couple of thoughts. Keep in mind that our labor inflation year-to-date is 4.8%, right? So, that’s where we are. And I’ll let Michelle talk about what’s going to happen going forward. But there’s — it’s — so there’s a whole bunch of noise in this. So, our overall labor is negatively affected by wage inflation. It’s kind of a mixed news on our staffing is really good right now. We are much better staffed than we were last year, which is a good news and a bad news. The good news is it means our guests are getting great experiences, our restaurants are fully staffed, we can handle volume. The bad news is it puts a little bit of pressure on the labor line because it means you’re spending more money. It pays off over time.