Popular, Inc. (NASDAQ:BPOP) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Popular, Inc. (NASDAQ:BPOP) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript January 25, 2024

Popular, Inc. beats earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $1.94, expectations were $1.05. Popular, Inc. isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).

Operator: Hello and welcome to today’s Popular Inc. 4Q Earnings Call. My name is Jordan, and I’ll be coordinating your call today. [Operator Instructions] I’m now going to hand over to Paul Cardillo, the Investor Relations Officer at Popular, Paul, please go ahead.

Paul Cardillo: Good morning and thank you for joining us. With us on the call today is our CEO, Ignacio Alvarez; our COO, Javier Ferrer; our CFO, Carlos Vazquez; and our CRO, Lidio Soriano. They will review our results for the full year and fourth quarter and then answer your questions. Other members of our management team will also be available during the Q&A session. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that on today’s call, we may make forward-looking statements regarding Popular, such as projections of revenue, earnings, expenses and capital structure as well as statements regarding Popular’s plans and objectives. These statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties.

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements are set forth within today’s earnings release and our SEC filings. You may find today’s press release and our SEC filings on our webpage at popular.com. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Ignacio Alvarez.

Ignacio Alvarez: Good morning and thank you for joining the call. In 2023, we delivered solid results in a challenging environment. Our annual net income of $541 million compared to net income of $1.1 billion in 2022. Our adjusted 2023 – our 2023 adjusted net income was $587 million compared to adjusted net income of $808 million in 2002. The variance was mainly driven by a higher provision for loan losses and higher operating expenses. We grew our loan portfolio by $3 billion or 9.3% during the year. BPPR generated loan growth across most business segments led by commercial loans reflecting the continued strength of the local economy and our diversified product offerings. Popular Bank achieved growth in commercial and construction loans.

During the fourth quarter, we increased our quarterly common stock dividend by $0.07 to $0.62 per share. Credit quality remained solid throughout 2023, as evidenced by lower non-performing loans, even though our unsecured consumer portfolio did begin to normalize during the second half of the year from historically low levels. Our capital levels are strong with year end common equity Tier 1 ratio of 16.3%. Our tangible book value ended 2023 at $59.74, a 33% increase year-over-year, primarily due to lower unrealized losses on investment securities and the year’s earnings. Over the past year, we have been executing on a broad-based multiyear technological and business process transformation. While many of these investments are foundational in nature and will take time to show meaningful results, we have already begun to see tangible revenue uplift from several of our early stage initiatives.

In Puerto Rico, these include enhanced pricing segmentation in our commercial cash management business and streamlined processing of small business loans. Our technology in business transformation continues to be a priority. We believe that there are opportunities to grow in our primary market as well as within our existing customer base and these efforts will help us capitalize upon that opportunity. We are confident that these investments will make us a stronger, more efficient and profitable company. We continue to target a 14% return on tangible common equity by the fourth quarter of 2025. Please turn to Slide 4. Adjusted net income in the fourth quarter, excluding the impact of the FDIC special assessment, totaled $140 million, flat from the last quarter.

Our loan balances grew by $1 billion, with $729 million at BPPR and $287 million at Popular Bank. Our net interest margin was 3.08%, increasing by 1 basis point primarily driven by higher loan balances and the repricing of loans and securities in a higher interest rate environment. This was offset by higher deposit costs. Non-interest income remained solid, increasing by $9 million. Excluding the FDIC assessment, operating expenses decreased by $6 million. Credit quality trends remain generally positive with lower NPLs once again. However, we did continue to see credit normalization in the Puerto Rico unsecured consumer segment, which began in the second half of the year. We have taken actions to address these developments and are extensive to the evolving credit landscape.

Deposit balances increased by approximately $300 million, primarily due to a higher level of online deposits at Popular Bank. The $9.54 increase in tangible book value per share in the quarter was primarily driven by a decrease in unrealized losses in our investment portfolio. Please turn to Slide 5. During 2023, we added 34,000 new customers in Puerto Rico and now served more than 2 million unique customers. Utilization of digital channels among our retail customers also remains strong. Active users on our Mi Banco platform exceeded $1.1 million or 54% of our customer base. In addition, we continue to capture more than 60% of our deposits through digital channels. Consumer spending remained healthy. Combined credit and debit card sales fell by 1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, which was a historically strong quarter.

Our auto loan and lease balances increased by $61 million compared to the third quarter as demand for new cars continue to be strong in Puerto Rico. Mortgage loan balances at BPPR increased by $103 million in the fourth quarter, driven primarily by home purchase activity and our strategy to retain FHA loans. The Puerto Rico economy performed well during the quarter. Business activity is solid as reflecting the positive trends in total employment and other economic data. The tourist and hospitality sector continues to be a source of strength for the local economy. Passenger traffic at the San Juan International Airport increased by 18% in 2023 compared to the previous year. And both the wholesale occupancy rate and the average daily rate reflected a 5% to 6% increase over 2022.

There are roughly $50 billion of committed federal funds that have yet to be disbursed. The pace of disbursement of these funds has accelerated and we anticipate that these funds will support economic activity for several years. We are encouraged by the performance of the Puerto Rico economy. We remain optimistic about the future of our primary market and are well positioned to support our clients during this historic period. We are pleased with our results for the quarter and the year, particularly our strong loan growth in both Puerto Rico and the U.S. as well as the continued strength of our deposit base, which positions us well for 2024. Finally, I’d like to take this opportunity to recognize Carlos, who will retire in March after 27 years of service to Popular.

As our CFO since 2013 and in various senior leadership positions before that, he excelled due to his strategic mindset, analytical skills and discipline. He has been an important contributor to our growth and financial strength and we are thankful for his leadership throughout all these years. On a more personal note, I am sincerely grateful for his support since I joined Popular and for his friendship, which began long before. Jorge Garcia, our Comptroller since 2012 has worked alongside Carlos for many years helping to build a strong finance team. He is widely respected within the organization, and we are confident he will do a great job as our new CFO. On that note, I will now turn the call over to Carlos for more details on our financial results.

Carlos Vazquez: Thank you, Ignacio, for those kind words as well as for your friendship and leadership. I would like to offer my gratitude to my colleagues at Popular. They make all our achievements possible. I also want to thank our analysts, bankers and investors, whose keen insights, challenging questions, recommendations and advice I am greatly appreciated by you. Finally, I want to thank my successor Jorge for his support over the last 13 years during which we have collaborated. I leave all of you in good hands. It has been my pleasure and honor to contribute to this great company for 27 years. Please turn to Slide 6. We reported net income of $95 million in the fourth quarter. Excluding the effect of the FDIC assessment, adjusted net income was $140 million, $3 million higher than the prior quarter.

Net interest income was $534 million, flat with Q3. During the fourth quarter, the net interest margin remained stable despite rising deposit costs. Based on our current and forecasted asset mix, coupled with the expected rate environment, we should continue to see NIM expansion in Q1 and throughout the rest of 2024. In 2024, we expect net interest income to increase by approximately 9% to 13% from 2023 levels, driven by loan growth of 3% to 6% and the continued improvement in our earning asset mix in a higher rate environment. Non-interest income was $169 million, an increase of $9 million versus Q3. In 2024, we expect non-interest income to be approximately $160 million to $165 million per quarter, an increase of $5 million from our prior guidance.

The provision of credit losses was $79 million compared to $45 million in the third quarter. Total operating expenses were $531 million in Q4 excluding the effect of the FDIC assessment, adjusted operating expenses were $459 million, a decrease of $6 million from Q3 and below our prior guidance of $175 million. The variance in the quarter was driven primarily by a $23 million non-cash goodwill impairment in Q3 and lower credit card processing and transactional expense by $8 million, mainly due to volume incentives recognized during the quarter from the card networks. For the year 2023, operating expenses increased by 9% to $1.9 billion, driven primarily by the higher FDIC deposit insurance expense, the goodwill impairment taken in Q3, personnel cost and expenses related to customer activity.

Excluding the FDIC assessment in Q4, 2023 expenses were $1.83 billion, 5% higher than in 2022, but below our original guidance of $1.87 billion. For 2024, we expect annual expenses in the range of $1.89 billion to $1.95 billion. Approximately half of the projected increase in expenses is related to technology investments, some that rolled over from 2023. The other half is mostly personnel expenses as we continue to invest in our people as well as expand our capabilities in cyber, risk, data and technology. This guidance includes transformation-related expenses. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was negative 1.6%. The additional FDIC expense changed the mix of exempt versus taxable income, increasing the proportion of exempt income. In addition, Q4 included a tax benefit resulting from the filing of the 2022 tax returns that contributed to a negative rate for the quarter.

For the full year 2023, the effective tax rate was 20%. Excluding the impact of the FDIC assessment, it was 21.5%, close to the lower end of our guidance of 22% to 25%. In 2024, we expect the effective tax rate to be in a range from 19% to 23%. Please turn to Slide 7. Net interest margin increased by 1 basis point to 3.08% in Q4. On a taxable equivalent basis, NIM was 3.26%, an increase of 2 basis points versus Q3. The increase was driven by improved earning asset mix, higher loan yields and balances across most major lending categories as well as higher yields on our cash balances and investments. This was offset by higher interest expense on deposits due to increased cost of public deposits and growth in high cost deposit accounts at Popular Bank.

At the end of the fourth quarter, Puerto Rico public deposits were $18.1 billion, an increase of roughly $300 million compared to Q3 and at the upper end of our guidance. In 2024, we expect public deposits to be in the range of $15 billion to $18 billion. As usual, seasonality should result in public deposit bonds as trending higher at the beginning of the year, and peaking in Q2, mostly related to tax receipts. Excluding Puerto Rico public deposits, consolidated customer deposit balances were flat compared to Q3. In Puerto Rico, customer deposits decreased driven by commercial outflows. For the year, approximately $1.3 billion in deposit balances were transferred by commercial and retail customers from BPPR to Popular Securities. In Q4, deposit increases at Popular Bank were primarily driven by increases in time and saving deposits from our online channel.

Ending loan balances increased by $1 billion or 3% compared to Q3, driven by growth in most loan segments at BPPR and by commercial and construction at PB. In 2023, loan balances increased by $3 billion or 9.3% versus $2.8 billion or 9.7% in 2022. We will continue to take advantage of prudent opportunities to extend credit and improve the use and yield of our existing liquidity. In 2024, we expect loan growth of 3% to 6%, driven primarily by the commercial loan segment in both banks. Our interest rate sensitivity is relatively neutral. We saw a small margin expansion in Q4 and expect the margin to remain in an upward trajectory in 2024. The magnitude will depend on our loan and deposit growth and mix, investment portfolio strategy as well as the pace of repricing of public funds and incrementally retail and commercial deposits in our U.S. operation.

Please turn to Slide 8. Deposit betas in the current tightening cycle are above the prior cycle. We have seen a total cumulative deposit beta of 36% to-date, driven by public deposits. The rate of increase in deposit costs for the corporation continued to slow down in the quarter. In BPPR, total deposit costs increased by 11 basis points compared to an increase of 24 basis points in Q3, led by public deposits. Excluding public deposit balances, total deposit costs remained flat at 55 basis points. At Popular Bank, deposit costs increased by 33 basis points compared to an increase of 29 basis points in Q3, led by retail deposits catered primarily to our online channel. Puerto Rico government deposits are composed of numerous clients and accounts.

The calculation methodology and rate of those accounts may vary depending on the timing of shifts in the related balances within accounts. On occasion, we may also provide temporary pricing concessions as part of our customary relationship management activities. In Q4, the mix shift and the customer and the temporary preferential rates resulted in an overall increase of 34 basis points in the customer deposits versus the 10 basis points we had anticipated at the end of the third quarter. We expect the cost of public deposits to remain flat in Q1. Please note that on Page 14 of our investor presentation, we have added a page summarizing the enhanced guidance for 2024, which we are providing in this webcast. Please turn to Slide 9. Our return on tangible equity was 6.3% in the quarter.

For the full year, our ROTCE was 9.4%. Both ratios were impacted by the FDIC assessment. We continue to target a sustainable 14% ROTCE by the end of 2025. Regulatory capital levels remained strong. Our Q4 common equity Tier 1 ratio of 16.3% decreased by 51 basis points from Q3 reflecting continued strong growth in our loan portfolio, which carries a higher regulatory risk rating – weighting, I’m sorry. Tangible book value per share at quarter end was $59.74, an increase of $9.54 per share, up almost 19% from Q3. Over the past 2 years, we have continued to effectively deploy our capital. This has been highlighted by the loan growth of almost $6 billion, the increasing trajectory are dividend and multiple share repurchases, including the return to our shareholders of the gain on sale of our EVERTEC stake.

We will revisit future capital actions in the second half of 2024. In the near term, we continue to seek more clarity on the outlook for rates, the economy and the proposed regulatory response to events in the banking sector. Our long-term outlook on capital return has not changed, anchored by our strong regulatory capital ratios. Over time, we expect our regulatory capital ratios to gravitate toward the levels of our mainland peers plus a buffer. With that, I turn the call over to Lidio.

Lidio Soriano: Thank you, Carlos and good morning. Overall, the corporation’s mortgage and commercial portfolios continue to reflect credit metrics significantly below pre-pandemic levels, while credit quality metrics continue to normalize for Puerto Rico’s personal loans, credit cards and auto and lease finance loans. We are closely monitoring the performance of our consumer portfolio and have made changes to our underwriting criteria to decrease exposure to higher risk segments. For the year, non-performing loans decreased from $439 million or 1.4% of total loans to $258 million or 1%. While net charge-offs increased from historic lows during the year, they still compare very favorably against pre-pandemic averages. We continue to closely monitor changes in the macroeconomic environment and borrower performance, given higher interest rate and inflationary pressures.

We believe that the improvements over recent years in risk management practices and the risk profile of the corporation loan portfolio positions Popular to continue to operate successfully under the current environment. Turning to Slide #10. Non-performing assets and non-performing loans decreased slightly during the quarter, driven by the mortgage portfolio in Puerto Rico. Commercial NPLs in Puerto Rico remained flat quarter-over-quarter, notwithstanding the inflow of an $18 million relationship in the renewal energy sector. This relationship drove the increase in NPL inflows for the quarter. Despite this inflow, the ratio of NPLs to total loans held in portfolio decreased to 1% from 1.1% in the previous quarter. Turning to Slide #11. Net charge-offs amounted to $57 million or annualized 66 basis points of average loans held in portfolio compared to $33 million or 39 basis points in the prior quarter.

The increase was mainly in Puerto Rico and the biggest variances we’re seeing in commercial and consumer net charge-offs. Commercial net charge-offs were $4 million or 17 basis points, a variance of $14 million due to an $11 million recovery in the previous quarter. Additionally, consumer net charge-offs were $11 million higher due to the credit normalization in auto, personal loans and credit cards. As we have discussed in the past, prior to the COVID pandemic, Popular net charge-offs were generally between 75 and 125 basis points. For 2024, we expect net charge-offs for the full year to be between 65 to 85 basis points due to the ongoing credit normalization and general economic environment. Please turn to Slide #12. The allowance for credit losses increased by $18 million to $729 million.

This was driven by a reserve build in the Puerto Rico commercial portfolio due to a $10 million specific reserve for the previously mentioned new NPL, loan growth and higher reserves for the consumer portfolios due to credit normalization. In the U.S., the ACL increased by $3 million driven by higher commercial loan reserve due to rating migration. The corporation ratio of ACL to loans of the portfolio remained flat at 2.1%. And while the ratio of ACL to NPL stood at 204% compared to 197% in the previous quarter. The provision for carry losses was $75 million, the $32 million increase from the prior quarter was driven by the $10 million specific reserve mentioned earlier and credit normalization of the Puerto Rico retail portfolios. Also contributing to the increase or third quarter events, such as recoveries in the Puerto Rico commercial portfolio and the re-calibration last quarter of the U.S. CRE allowance model, which led to a $50 million reduction in reserves.

To summarize, our Puerto Rico consumer loan portfolio continued to normalize during the quarter. While the corporation mortgage and commercial portfolios continue to reflect strong credit quality trends with low net charge-offs and decreasing non-performing loans. We are attentive to the evolving environment but remain encouraged by the performance of our loan book. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Ignacio for his concluding remarks. Thank you.

Ignacio Alvarez: Thank you, Lidio and Carlos, for your updates. 2023 was a good year for Popular despite a challenging environment, which included high interest rates, uncertainty in the geopolitical situation, and disruptions in the banking industry during the first half of the year. Our results reflected solid earnings, robust loan growth, stable credit quality and continued customer growth. We achieved important milestones, including surpassing 2 million unique customers in Puerto Rico. We also made great progress in our transformation efforts and some of the initiatives are already producing encouraging results. I would like to express my gratitude and appreciation to our employees for all their hard work and dedication during the year.

In October, we celebrated our 130th anniversary. We are proud of the legacy that made Popular what it is today, a strong, vibrant organization with deep rooted values. Leveraging these strengths, we will continue to transform our organization to ensure success for many years to come. This entails meeting the rapidly changing needs of our customers, providing our colleagues a workplace where they can thrive, promoting progress in the communities we serve and generating sustainable value for our shareholders. I am optimistic about our prospects in 2024. Economic trends in Puerto Rico continue to be positive, and we are well positioned to participate and the economic activity that is expected to be generated in the coming years. We’re looking forward to a great year.

We started with strong momentum and the team is energized. We are now ready to answer your questions.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Timur Braziler of Wells Fargo. Timur, please go ahead.

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Q&A Session

Timur Braziler: Hi. Good morning.

Ignacio Alvarez: Good morning.

Carlos Vazquez: Good morning.

Timur Braziler: Looking at the NII guidance, it’s pretty impressive for 2024, especially considering the expectation for loan growth to moderate in the coming year. Two-part question. First, what are your rate assumptions embedded in that NII guidance? And second, can you maybe talk through NII cadence throughout the year, especially now that public funds deposit costs have stabilized.

Carlos Vazquez: Alright. Timur, the underlying rate, our assumptions are embedded in our forecast we are in the lower end of the market as far as number of decreases in rates, and we have them all in the second half of the year. That changes every day, of course, today after GDP is lower than it was yesterday. But – so we’re at the low end of the consensus range and the second half of the year. And with regards to NII, I mean, we’ve the effect of the cost of government funds, if in fact rates are flat at coming down should be pretty neutral moving forward. In fact, we’ve – I’ve mentioned in my prepared comments that we expect the cost of deposits to remain flat for the first quarter. So that will hopefully be one of the contributors. The rest of the consumers are going to be dependent on the loan growth, on what sector our loan growth happens, the speed at which it happens and then the repricing of our MS portfolio as well as it continues to mature.

Timur Braziler: Okay. And Carlos, can you provide just how many rate cuts you are assuming in the back end of the year?

Carlos Vazquez: Two.

Timur Braziler: Okay. Maybe one for Lidio. So last quarter, you called out the low FICO use card borrower. This quarter, you called out credit cards, personal loans and some segments of auto as being higher risk. Maybe just talk through the normalization of the consumer what would you classify as being higher risk balances? And then how should we think about this segment relative to the current 11% allowance allocation?

Lidio Soriano: I think generally, when you’re looking at consumer and retail portfolios, the high-risk segments are always going to be driven by cycle. So your lower FICO is going to the ones that are going to be higher risk. And we have seen – I think I – last quarter also mentioned normalization of personal loans and credit cards. And what we have seen this quarter is that continues around the spectrum. I think maybe a gradual increase also in delinquencies or charge-offs or lease, which was maybe I did not mention in the last quarter. What was the last part of your question, I’m sorry, Tim?

Timur Braziler: With an 11% allowance ratio, do you think this normalization causes increased allowance from here? Or is that normalization primarily in the charge-offs with the allowance ratio staying relatively stable?

Lidio Soriano: I mean I think we – I expect normalization to continue maybe through the first half of the year. And the movement that you have seen in our allowance should be replicated in the first half, which has been pretty consistent around the 2.1%, excluding any changes in economic forecast or things like that.

Timur Braziler: Okay. And can you provide balances of what are the lower FICO more higher risk consumer balances are?

Lidio Soriano: That is not a disclosure that we provide, so, no.

Carlos Vazquez: What we do provide, as you know, in the appendix, Timur, is the different consumer portfolios and the originations over time in a very extended period of time. So from that, you will not get the actual balances that you’re requesting, but you get a sense of where the portfolio is because I think we have 8 or 9 years’ worth of origination and most of these products have a life of 2 or 3 years.

Lidio Soriano: I think maybe most important in looking at more from a macro context, looking at the strength of the Puerto Rico economy, the liquidity of our clients, we don’t foresee an acceleration of growth. I mean we’re seeing a trend of normalization, and that’s our forecast and embedded in the forecast and the guidance that we provided for losses next year.

Timur Braziler: Great. Thank you for the questions. And congrats Carlos on well deserve retirement.

Carlos Vazquez: Thanks, Timur.

Operator: Our next question comes from Ben Gerlinger of Citi. Ben, please go ahead.

Ben Gerlinger: Hi, good morning, guys.

Carlos Vazquez: Good morning, Ben. Welcome.

Ben Gerlinger: Yes. Thank you. I was curious if we could just take a moment, I know you said the loan growth is being partially funded by just a mix in the loans or securities. How should we think about the overall balance sheet size? It should be obviously lower growth in loans, but it should – is this static balance sheet size is somewhat acceptable or something we should expect? Or should we see a little bit of growth in the balance sheet as well?