16. Iowa
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 3.3 points
Actual result: Trump won by 9.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 1.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 7.4 points
Trump: 95 – Biden:101
17. Kansas
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 13.2 points
Actual result: Trump won by 20.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 9.5 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 16.9 points
Trump: 101 – Biden:101
18. Kentucky
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 18.9 points
Actual result: Trump won by 29.8 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.4 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 30.3 points
Trump: 109 – Biden:101
19. Louisiana
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 16.4 points
Actual result: Trump won by 19.6 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 14.8 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 18 points
Trump: 117 – Biden:101
20. Maine
Maine isn’t a “winner-take-all” state. The winner of the popular vote will get 2 electoral votes and the winner of each of two districts will get 1 electoral vote. It is near certain that Biden will win the statewide race and the first district. The only competitive race is in the second district. Fivethirtyeight thinks Trump will win this district by 0.9 points. We agree. Here are the stats for the entire state:
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 6.2 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 3.0 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 12.3 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 9.1 points
Trump: 118 – Biden:104
21. Maryland
Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.6 points
Actual result: Trump lost by 26.4 points
Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 31.7 points
Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 31.5 points
Trump: 118 – Biden:114
Click to continue reading and see the rest of the estimates.
Disclosure: This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
