Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

There is one caveat on this and that there’s a current bill in Congress that if ultimately passed, will extend some of the tax provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Right now we’re in the process of starting to sunset out, and if that passes, we’ll actually see 100% bonus depreciation backdated to 2023, so you’d get 2023, 2024 and 2025 all at 100%. That would benefit us in 2024 and to the tune of probably an incremental $300 million or so, but that’s contingent on that legislation passing.

Matthew Blair: Great. Thanks for the color.

Mark Lashier: Yeah.

Operator: The next question comes from the line of Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen. Please go ahead, Jason.

Jason Gabelman: Yeah. Hey. Thanks for taking my questions. I had a follow-up question on the Rodeo startup plan and I appreciate all the color. I know you mentioned it was going to be ramping up to full rates by midyear. Does that also include indicative feed slate, meaning you’re going to be running dirty lower CI feed from the middle of the year? Is that going to be more of a ramp up once you hit full rates?

Rich Harbison: Yeah. Jason, this Rich. We will start off with the easier feedstocks generally and those are used vegetable oils, maybe some used cooking oils and some neat vegetable oils. As we get the pretreatment unit up and running and lined out, we’ll start introducing lower and lower CI carbon intensive feedstocks, which includes the fats, the greases, the tallows, those types of feedstocks, and we fully expect those to be introduced into the system towards the second half of the second quarter, maybe into the third quarter and we’ll slowly and continuously reduce that carbon intensity feedstock quality as we get more and more comfortable with the operation of the pretreatment unit and their impacts inside the processing units as well.

So — and I think our commercial organizations lined up with that same and they’ve been out and about gathering up these feedstocks and actively developing the aggregation facilities. And so they’re positioning quite well for the — looking for the green light from the Rodeo team to go ahead and start sending these that direction and they’ll be ready when we’re ready.

Jason Gabelman: Got it. And then my follow-up is on the Midstream segment and clearly very strong results, as you’ve discussed on the call. But I’m wondering if there’s any seasonality we should think about to the business that would result in maybe stronger winter results and weaker summer results, thinking of things like higher propane demand and butane being pulled out of storage for blending and anything else that would be included like that that would drive kind of lower earnings 2Q and 3Q relative to 4Q and 1Q. Thanks.

Tim Roberts: Yeah. Jason, that’s a great question. And no, that’s how we would look at it. If I look at 2024, as you kind of think about what we see that IBT looking like, we think that looks somewhere around on average, again, simple average across the four quarters about 675 a quarter. But you’re right, there’s some seasonality that comes into play. Typically, it’s a little stronger in the fourth quarter. Again, you nailed it, propane, butane, all those things kind of come into play. You see a little bit of that still in the first quarter. So, again, first quarter, fourth quarter, a little bit stronger, and then it comes off a little bit. But on average, about 675 is what we’re looking at. Now, that’s at mid-cycle.

So, I want to be real clear there. At mid-cycle commodity pricing, that’s the framework we’re operating under. Now, obviously, if you look at first quarter, if there are winter events and things that happen that remember a couple years ago that we had and that’s a different game, too. We’ll have to — we just deal with that when that occurs. But generally, that’s kind of the framework we’re looking at, again, on an IBT basis.

Jason Gabelman: All right. Great. Thanks.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Theresa Chen: Hi. In terms of your longer NGL wellhead-to-market strategy, can you just remind us, on a run rate basis, what do you anticipate is the breakdown of Y-grade volumes you control from your own processing plants flowing to your downstream assets versus third-party?

Mark Lashier: Well, I won’t go into a lot of detail on that, Theresa, but what I will tell you is we’re long. We are long on NGLs. But actually, we want to be and that’s by design. We offload to third parties to run some of our product for us, whether to transport or whether to frac. And at some point, I’d like to think over time, as we continue to build scale on the integrated value chain that we’ve got, we’ll bring those volumes in-house. But at this point in time, like I said, we’re long and we are for the foreseeable future on NGLs.

Theresa Chen: Got it. And would you mind giving us an update on the progress with the asset sales? How far are you along this process and have you narrowed things down further?

Mark Lashier: Yeah. As far as asset sales go, we said before that everything we have has a value and we understand what that value is and that’s what we’re focused on. If we can capture more value from someone else owning assets, then we’ll do that. But having said that, we are in some active discussions as we speak. There’s a number of processes underway that we can’t comment on, but all I’d say is, leave it there, that we’ll have more comments likely at our first quarter earnings call.

Theresa Chen: Thank you.