Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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John Royall: Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. So, my first question is on the net debt target. You had guided to hitting the top end of your range on leverage by year-end. It was a pretty modest tailwind from working capital in 3Q, and Kevin mentioned you will catch it up and get most of that 1H build back in 4Q. Do you need any help from price to hit that working capital number, or could price conversely be a headwind that prevents you from getting it all back? And then does the worsening environment that we have seen here in 4Q in refining potentially impact your ability to hit that target?

Kevin Mitchell: Yes. I mean, John, the market environment will impact profitability. It will impact cash generation. But the bulk of the working capital benefit we expect to see in the fourth quarter will be driven by inventory impacts, and that’s pretty solid in terms of that impact. So, while there will always be other parts moving around in this equation, I feel pretty confident that the top end of that targeted range is – we will be around about there at the end of the year. I am not too concerned by that.

John Royall: Okay. Great. Thank you. And then I was just hoping for your latest views on WCS differentials. You should get some tailwinds from the widening we have seen here in 4Q. But where do you think the differential goes from here, particularly as we get close to the start-up of TMX, although there is some debate over the timing there? But just any thoughts on WCS as we head into next year would be helpful.

Brian Mandell: Hey John, it’s Brian. So, like you said, the WCS dips are very wide, minus $25 now. That’s a benefit to us. We are the largest importer of Canadian crude, nearly 500,000 barrels a day. The reason the dips are wide is because you have more production than you have pipeline egress. And you also have the diluent blended into – starting in September, into the crude, which adds or swells volume. We would expect to see the dips remain seasonally wide with more barrels than egress as traders also sell barrels to meet the year-end inventories. TMX has announced the start-up in April. We will take them at their word. Currently, we don’t think the pipeline will run at full capacity. But if you take a look at the forward curves currently, Q2, Q3 average is about minus $15, and that’s about where we think it might end up.

John Royall: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you, John. Jason Gabelman from Cowen and Company. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Jason Gabelman: Hey guys. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is on refining capture, and we have seen co-product headwinds continue now for a second quarter. Last quarter was a pretty high headwind, and then this quarter was even higher. And the oil price moving up obviously impacts the co-product headwind, but was wondering what else is going on in that bucket? If you could give us some visibility into that and if you think any of that is structural in nature.

Rich Harbison: Jason, this is Rich. Are you asking about the co-product bucket?

Jason Gabelman: Yes.

Mark Lashier: Secondary products.

Rich Harbison: Secondary products, yes. Yes, so the primary – in refining, that primary mover there is petroleum coke, right. That’s the product that generally drives that secondary product margin for us. And it generally lags behind crude pricing, right, and it’s tied to the coal markets that can pressure it up or pressure it down based on supply and demand requirements there. The other subtle component that plays into secondary products for us is NGL pricing. And that’s bigger in some markets than others for us, but it certainly does play into it, and that’s been depressed for some period now. And that’s – our outlook continues to not be real strong on NGL pricing on the forward curves. The balance of the secondary products, which are fuel oil intermediates and some other products that probably aren’t worth mentioning, those have been relatively flat, really, over the period.

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